CME, G1-G3 storm predicted

[MinYoongi]

@Orneno @Vancanneyt Sander @Marcel de Bont what do you guys say to this? ive only seen kp2 predicted and not 8 or 9. 

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/

I have to add, in the CME Scoreboard/Nasa Prediction it says : A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case.

 

 

noaa just updated and sticks with G2 or highest G3. but G2 most likely.

so i think they know the model is most likely wrong? the CME was really, really faint.. does not pack such a punch in my opinion

Edited July 22, 2022 by Orneno

[Sam Warfel]

That’s preposterous. It may be fast but it’s so faint it’s practically invisible. G2 or maaaybe G3 at best is my gut instinct (granted, I’m not an expert)

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

That’s preposterous. It may be fast but it’s so faint it’s practically invisible. G2 or maaaybe G3 at best is my gut instinct (granted, I’m not an expert)

Yeah, like i said as a note to the prediction it even says "While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case."

 

Also many experts on twitter doubt the model. Noaa just published their daily update (22UTC) and go with G2 or G3 at most, and issued a G2 warning for the 23rd. Same with Met Office. so you think no Kp9 ?

[Solarflaretracker200]

If it’s an actual KP9 (which is probably not) then I’m going to see freaking see that. Like I’ll go anywhere to see that. 

[Sam Warfel]

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Noaa just published their daily update (22UTC) and go with G2 or G3 at most, and issued a G2 warning for the 23rd. Same with Met Office. so you think no Kp9 ?

I agree with NOAA/Met 

[Jesterface23]

Yeah, that one model run went a bit overkill. I'd be thinking G3 max as well.

[Bedreamon]

That's the only model predicting Kp8-9, according to the CME scoreboard: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/
I gotta wonder, how did it get to that conclusion?

[Flareguy18]

G2 to G3 is certainly possible since we will have a combined effect of ongoing HSS and prior CME passages. Beyond that... is a huge stretch. If it were a much denser CME, then perhaps.

One other thing I'd like to point out, a KP 8 or 9 event does not really mean anything "dangerous". We've encountered these events many times and have been completely fine. It would really take something so much bigger to cause any harm. And this CME will fall waaaay short of anything bad. At most, some brilliant auroras may be in the offing!

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Bedreamon said:

That's the only model predicting Kp8-9, according to the CME scoreboard: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/
I gotta wonder, how did it get to that conclusion?

It often overpredicts. I talked to 2 people working in space weather forecasting for Nasa and another office and they explained that a model after all is just a model. Like therestical weather models its not perfect and recquires someone with knowledge to know how 'serious' to take it. In this case, the model is struggling with the diffuse cme.

Also @Flareguy18 is absolutely right. We got through 2001, 2003, 2005 (years with STRONG cmes + storming) relatively good. Problems on a large scale for us normal people dont occur with those

[jeny96]

So there's no need to panic? I mean the possibility of a carrignton event, Isaw the predictions of NOAA but idk these predicition of the other website worries me a little

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by jeny96

[Sam Warfel]

21 minutes ago, jeny96 said:

So there's no need to panic? I mean the possibility of a carrignton event, Isaw the predictions of NOAA but idk these predicition of the other website worries me a little

Absolutely none at all.  The CME is so faint as to be almost invisible, it's not at all major.  Let alone a Carrington.  If it was, there wouldn't be any doubt, nor would the only prediction of it be from something other than official governmental bodies like SWPC and NOAA.

[jeny96]

25 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Absolutely none at all.  The CME is so faint as to be almost invisible, it's not at all major.  Let alone a Carrington.  If it was, there wouldn't be any doubt, nor would the only prediction of it be from something other than official governmental bodies like SWPC and NOAA.

thanks ❤️ 

[Jesterface23]

Also, Carrington level events would likely have under 24 hours in travel times. We won't even know if an event is a Carrington level event until it actually hits given the random possibility of parameters and what part of the CME hits us.

[Sam Warfel]

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Also, Carrington level events would likely have under 24 hours in travel times. We won't even know if an event is a Carrington level event until it actually hits given the random possibility of parameters and what part of the CME hits us.

Not really true, it would have to be an extremely powerful CME, launched by an extremely powerful flare, and we’d see both of those 

So we’d have advance warning from the minute it launched 

[Jesterface23]

25 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Not really true, it would have to be an extremely powerful CME, launched by an extremely powerful flare, and we’d see both of those 

So we’d have advance warning from the minute it launched 

Maybe a mix of both of our comments. How much data do we actually have on Carrington class events?

Edited July 22, 2022 by Jesterface23

[Yak]

I can't spot the CME, can someone point it out. All i see is the big one to the NE

[Philalethes]

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Maybe a mix of both of our comments. How much data do we actually have on Carrington class events?

No, not a mix between your comments at all. What you said had precisely zero basis in reality, you're simply wrong. No offense to you whatsoever, but that's simply the truth.

The most telling data we have about Carrington-level events is the Carrington event itself; in fact, it is so named because Richard Carrington made the earliest observation of a Solar flare ever the day before, ~18 hours before the CME hit. From the Wikipedia article on the Carrington event (nothing disputable here, just the facts):

Quote

Just before noon on 1 September, the English amateur astronomers Richard Christopher Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently recorded the earliest observations of a solar flare.

[...]

The geomagnetic storm is thought to have been initiated by a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 150 million kilometre (93 million mile) journey. Typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth, but it is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME was made possible by a prior CME, perhaps the cause of the large aurora event on 29 August that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington Event.

In other words, it was so powerful that people back then managed to make the first such record ever, even drawing the flare. There's absolutely no way such a CME could happen without an associated Solar flare (CMEs that occur without associated Solar flares tend to be far weaker), and that flare would have to be, by every record we've ever made of powerful CMEs, including the Carrington event itself, extremely powerful and very clearly visible, even more so to today's advanced instruments than the rudimentary tools of Carrington. Even with right conditions, it would still take at least half a day to reach Earth, as it took almost 18 hours under the quite favorable conditions of the Carrington event.

Thus, fact is: we'd see the flare, we'd know an extremely strong CME was coming, and there's zero chance we wouldn't know until it hit us, contrary to what you originally claimed. Q.E.D.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos
trouble formatting

[Yak]

How big would a carrington class flare be. X30? 40? 50 even. 

[Philalethes]

8 minutes ago, Yak said:

How big would a carrington class flare be. X30? 40? 50 even. 

The Carrington flare itself has been estimated at X45, similar to the current estimate for the 2003 Halloween solar storms.

[Yak]

geez

[Jesterface23]

2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

No, not a mix between your comments at all. What you said had precisely zero basis in reality, you're simply wrong. No offense to you whatsoever, but that's simply the truth.

It's all just a bit confusing. The 2003 Halloween storms contained the largest major flare observed by satellites, but we were only clipped by the CME and we will never know if it would have produced a similarly significant solar storm. The July 23rd, 2012 CME is thought to be a near Carrington class event, but it was very uncommonly small (its angular width) CME for being so significant. There is also the factor of the IMF components and like you had quoted, a prior CME may have "cleared the way", and maybe other factors that I can't think of.

You are right, large flares will likely bring significant solar storms, but the difference is making it to Kp9 vs a Carrington level event.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Jesterface23

[Flareguy18]

4 hours ago, Yak said:

I can't spot the CME, can someone point it out. All i see is the big one to the NE

I'll go ahead and post this here, but we also have a separate thread for the full-halo.

The difference movie (on the right) is very much needed to get an accurate depiction of what we are dealing with. You'll see a strong/dense CME leaving the frame off the northeast (which was a farside eruption), then a fast-moving "ring" moving out in all directions. That faint ring is the full-halo. https://twitter.com/halocme/status/1550189538206777344?s=20&t=hrdjSuL8RXlFb39qk1dfMA

[MinYoongi]

@Flareguy18 @Orneno

I#m just confused again, because ive looked at the CME Scoreboard and theres a prediction that got added at 22:15 UTC and it says KP8-9 too.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/prediction/detail/1896 even with 100% Certainty but i think thats just for overall arrival? Not to sure. in the notes it also states like the other 8-9 prediction "## Notes: While the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, its coronagraph signature is quite diffuse, so the resulting Kp may be lower than indicated by the simulation outputs."

 

i also got this message :

The method used is ensemble, which I often see really high confidence percentage on. I think it’s because it’s an ensemble, so it is more likely that something within that ensemble will verify. But overall, I would still disregard. Not sure what’s going on, but I’m really not buying what’s being put out. I’m going to continue to be more in agreement with SWPC’s forecast. Could see higher than G2 as we are coming out of the CH impact and the environment is already disturbed, but I still think 8-9 is a little insane.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

10 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

I#m just confused again, because ive looked at the CME Scoreboard and theres a prediction that got added at 22:15 UTC and it says KP8-9 too.

That's just one of the predictions and as stated clearly model runs might be incorrect due to the very faint character of the CME. In only expect a moderate event nothing more.

[Sam Warfel]

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

@Flareguy18 @Orneno

I#m just confused again, because ive looked at the CME Scoreboard and theres a prediction that got added at 22:15 UTC and it says KP8-9 too.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/prediction/detail/1896 even with 100% Certainty but i think thats just for overall arrival? Not to sure. in the notes it also states like the other 8-9 prediction "## Notes: While the halo associated with CME: 2022-07-21T01:48Z is fast, its coronagraph signature is quite diffuse, so the resulting Kp may be lower than indicated by the simulation outputs."

 

i also got this message :

The method used is ensemble, which I often see really high confidence percentage on. I think it’s because it’s an ensemble, so it is more likely that something within that ensemble will verify. But overall, I would still disregard. Not sure what’s going on, but I’m really not buying what’s being put out. I’m going to continue to be more in agreement with SWPC’s forecast. Could see higher than G2 as we are coming out of the CH impact and the environment is already disturbed, but I still think 8-9 is a little insane.

You have to be careful reading that CME scoreboard. There’s a lot of predictions on there that aren’t very reliable. When in doubt, always look at SWPC/NOAA or European equivalents. 

It looks like the CME is on track to arrive later today as predicted or maybe a bit early, the EPAM is starting to rise (thanks Flareguy for pointing it out)