ARs3030/3032 (M3 flare, CME)

[Jesterface23]

35 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Yeah, with an HSS above 500 right now, it may be almost undetectable 

We are only 48 hours in, so if the CME arrives now the velocities could be 600-650km/s. If the CME manages to somehow magically arrive at 72 hours may be around 400km/s. 

Taking a guess based of STEREO A, the CME should arrive at Earth within the next 7 hours.

 

Or it can arrive now at the time of this edit

Edited June 15, 2022 by Jesterface23

[Sam Warfel]

49 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

We are only 48 hours in, so if the CME arrives now the velocities could be 600-650km/s. If the CME manages to somehow magically arrive at 72 hours may be around 400km/s. 

Taking a guess based of STEREO A, the CME should arrive at Earth within the next 7 hours.

 

Or it can arrive now at the time of this edit

It’s here!!

Not the strongest in the world, but it’s something

-11 and falling, not too shabby. This feels like a G1 is likely and a G2 is possible, a G3 seems very unlikely. Even with a strong Bz, the solar wind speed is just not thaaaat high 

[MinYoongi]

Region 3030 seems to reemerge.

[MinYoongi]

Its more active today

[Newbie]

36 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Its more active today

Hi Min it produced the last two flares: C 2.7 and C 5.6 

N.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Hi Min it produced the last two flares: C 2.7 and C 5.6 

N.

It recently created more but goes is down..

Does anyone know if there is a goes outage? And why?

[No pseudoscience]

On 6/13/2022 at 12:04 PM, 3gMike said:

"Sunspot groups that are clearly visible and observed by designated ground-based observatories, are assigned a NOAA/SWPC 4-digit region number to officially record and track the sunspot group as it rotates across the visible solar disk. Sunspot groups are analyzed and characterized based on their size and complexity by SWPC forecasters each day using the modified Zurich classification scale and Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. This daily sunspot analysis and classification is submitted at the end of each UTC-day as the Solar Region Summary report."

This doesn't say anything about whether it's done by a human being or an algorithm.

Anyway (at the time of editing) It's bedtime. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by No pseudoscience
Avoiding clutter

[Newbie]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

It recently created more but goes is down. 

Latest recorded flares

N.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Newbie

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Latest recorded flares

N.

thank you! 
Does 3030 has a delta?

i just see that both ASSA and ASAP AI's assign it a very high flare probability.

but looking at the magnetogram i dont exactly see why?

i dont really get it? Lol

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

thank you! 
Does 3030 has a delta?

i just see that both ASSA and ASAP AI's assign it a very high flare probability.

but looking at the magnetogram i dont exactly see why?

i dont really get it? Lol

I agree with you Min. I can't see anything of note. Yesterday was more promising

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Newbie said:

I agree with you Min. I can't see anything of note. Yesterday was more promising

I just dont get it, there must be a reason for two seperate Algorythms to rise, right? 

Did you look at its magnetic layout too? I'll post a picture. 

[Newbie]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

I just dont get it, there must be a reason for two seperate Algorythms to rise, right? 

Did you look at its magnetic layout too? I'll post a picture. 

I did look at it, the only area that comes close to a delta would need to darken a whole lot more and move into the penumbra of the elongated red spot. Keep an eye on it

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Newbie said:

I did look at it, the only area that comes close to a delta would need to darken a whole lot more and move into the penumbra of the elongated red spot. Keep an eye on it

Thank you! I know this is a bit off topic, but what happened to 3031's delta? Is it still to consider a delta? Sorry for the many questions  

I have also seen that the F10.7 went from 148 to 152 in just 3 hours. do you perhaps know why? Did something grow to cause that? Maybe because some sunspots are still in growth? 

 

 

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! I know this is a bit off topic, but what happened to 3031's delta? Is it still to consider a delta? Sorry for the many questions  

I have also seen that the F10.7 went from 148 to 152 in just 3 hours. do you perhaps know why? Did something grow to cause that? Maybe because some sunspots are still in growth? 

 

 

I looked at 3031 and the area yesterday that was promising just faded away. The spots are so small at the moment I can't see anything of note.

I saw the flux go up too, over 150. I'll look at the other areas. Not sure.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Newbie said:

 

I saw the flux go up too, over 150. I'll look at the other areas. Not sure.

Okay, let me know when you got a clue! Im interested  

[Newbie]

I think you are right Min there are areas that are in growth stage. SFI will increase when Emerging flux is detected. Sun Today used to report it but I haven't seen it listed for ages. I would say this is possibly why SFI is higher.

N.

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! I know this is a bit off topic, but what happened to 3031's delta? Is it still to consider a delta? Sorry for the many questions  

I have also seen that the F10.7 went from 148 to 152 in just 3 hours. do you perhaps know why? Did something grow to cause that? Maybe because some sunspots are still in growth? 

 

 

 

[MinYoongi]

21 minutes ago, Newbie said:

I think you are right Min there are areas that are in growth stage. SFI will increase when Emerging flux is detected. Sun Today used to report it but I haven't seen it listed for ages. I would say this is possibly why SFI is higher.

N.

 

Yep that was what i thought!!

 

I still dont get why ASSA/ASAP assign 3030 such a high flare probability..!  

[Newbie]

Also there is a fair bit of Simoid activity around 3030. 

Sigmoids' are S-shaped structures found in the outer atmosphere of the Sun (the corona). These are bundles of flux rope if you like. They are often fore-runners to strong explosions. 

'A series of models have been proposed to explain the nature of sigmoids but until now there was no explanation on how such complex structures form, erupt and fade away. Sigmoids consist of many thin and twisted layers (or ribbons) of strong electric current. When these layers interact it leads to the formation of the observed powerful flares and the eruption of strong magnetic fields which carry highly energetic particles into interplanetary space'.

This is an excerpt from a research paper that appeared in Science Daily 2009.

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Yep that was what i thought!!

 

I still dont get why ASSA/ASAP assign 3030 such a high flare probability..!  

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, Newbie zei:

I think you are right Min there are areas that are in growth stage. SFI will increase when Emerging flux is detected. Sun Today used to report it but I haven't seen it listed for ages. I would say this is possibly why SFI is higher.

N.

 

SF is directly related to the amount of sunspots. We have a new sunspot! As predicted in Coming sunspots around 22:00 June 17! 

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

SF is directly related to the amount of sunspots. We have a new sunspot! As predicted in Coming sunspots around 22:00 June 17! 

Emerging flux equates to sunspots. 

What number is your new spot?

 

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

33 minuten geleden, Newbie zei:

Emerging flux equates to sunspots. 

What number is your new spot?

 

 

To be numbered. If NASA sees that my prediction is right… will they number it?

our article that equates flux to sunspots🤩

(1) (PDF) A Formula for the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle

[Newbie]

36 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

To be numbered. If NASA sees that my prediction is right… will they number it?

our article that equates flux to sunspots🤩

(1) (PDF) A Formula for the Start of a New Sunspot Cycle

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle

Thanks for sharing Patrick

[MinYoongi]

Can we please leave this stuff in the "other" section? K, thanks.

 

 

3 hours ago, Newbie said:

Also there is a fair bit of Simoid activity around 3030. 

Sigmoids' are S-shaped structures found in the outer atmosphere of the Sun (the corona). These are bundles of flux rope if you like. They are often fore-runners to strong explosions. 

Can you show me where and in which wavelength? I dont see anything like it.

Ive heard of Sigmoid Structures but i dont see S shaped ribboning? :c maybe im searching wrong

[Newbie]

25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Can you show me where and in which wavelength? I dont see anything like it.

Ive heard of Sigmoid Structures but i dont see S shaped ribboning? :c maybe im searching wrong

These structures are observed using high resolution X-ray images for example from the Japanese led solar mission - Hinode. 

Lmsal Sun today records sigmoid activity as well as a lot of other things. They call their model sigmoid sniffer!

Dark blue circle with SG denotes a sigmoid detected.

I don't know if there is a link to Hinode, others might.

This is a good enough indication to me about this activity.

N.

 

[MinYoongi]

29 minutes ago, Newbie said:

These structures are observed using high resolution X-ray images for example from the Japanese led solar mission - Hinode. 

Lmsal Sun today records sigmoid activity as well as a lot of other things. They call their model sigmoid sniffer!

Dark blue circle with SG denotes a sigmoid detected.

I don't know if there is a link to Hinode, others might.

This is a good enough indication to me about this activity.

N.

 

Wow, something entirely new to me! Could you maybe hook me up with a Link to LMSAL? I sadly cant find it using Google 😃