ARs3030/3032 (M3 flare, CME)

[Sam Warfel]

Is this a returning spot or a new one? Either way, it’s great to have some action after so long that’s quiet!

Edited June 13, 2022 by Orneno

[Solarflaretracker200]

Ofc the sun is doing crazy things

Well ok then

[MinYoongi]

56 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Ofc the sun is doing crazy things

Well ok then

? xd

 

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Is this a returning spot or a new one? Either way, it’s great to have some action after so long that’s quiet!

I watched the farside Maps for the last 2 weeks. I think its 3014 & 3017.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

57 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Ofc the sun is doing crazy things

Well ok then

? xd

I’m going camping for like a week and a half tomorrow and there is no phone service so I’m like really sun. Why today? 😂 😂 😂 

Wtf is with the quotes

[3gMike]

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I watched the farside Maps for the last 2 weeks. I think its 3014 & 3017.

By using Carrington coordinates we can make a calculation based on relative locations of AR 3029 and AR3030

AR3029 is shown at S17W20 and AR3030 at N20E66. Helio HEC shows AR3029 at Carrington longitude 204. If we assume that the locations of AR3029 and AR3030 were recorded at the same time we can use the difference in longitude to determine the Carrington longitude for AR3030 as 204 - 86 = 118. On that basis it falls almost exactly halfway between the last known Carringtons for AR3014 (104) and AR3011 (130). The latitudes do not help either, because AR3030 is at 20 deg, with AR3011 and Ar3014 being at 18 and 22 deg, so it could be either of those - but definitely not AR3017, which was last seen at 90/12.

 

I hope this makes sense !

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Is this a returning spot or a new one? Either way, it’s great to have some action after so long that’s quiet!

I was just wondering if this is the eagerly awaited and anticipated return of 3017?

Yesterday(? day before?) 3014 was pulled off “the books”. The spots that appeared on Wednesday afternoon (Texas Time!) weren’t given a new AR identifier… still labeled 3029. Sometimes it seems obvious, but I don’t understand the science (Art perhaps?) behind this distinction. 

Returning Active Regions are always given new numbers - is that correct? 
I also need to develop an understanding of how a region is defined (boundaries on a map)… if anyone could point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it!

15 minutes ago, WildWill said:

I was just wondering if this is the eagerly awaited and anticipated return of 3017?

Yesterday(? day before?) 3014 was pulled off “the books”. The spots that appeared on Wednesday afternoon (Texas Time!) weren’t given a new AR identifier… still labeled 3029. Sometimes it seems obvious, but I don’t understand the science (Art perhaps?) behind this distinction. 

Returning Active Regions are always given new numbers - is that correct? 
I also need to develop an understanding of how a region is defined (boundaries on a map)… if anyone could point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it!

Apparently not! 3gMike has pegged it’s Carrington long. to be between 3011 & 3014. So we still have 3017 just around the bend! Perhaps.
 

Also, since 3030 appeared, the SE limb has gone pretty quiet. I still have hope for that region of phage moving in ~20* S…

We could have a really Spotted Sunday! (I know, my wits are only exceeded by my charm and good looks!)

[MinYoongi]

5 hours ago, WildWill said:

 

We could have a really Spotted Sunday! (I know, my wits are only exceeded by my charm and good looks!)

According to HMI Farside Data, more to come  

 

[Drax Spacex]

Yes, the "fussy" side of the Sun is coming back around!

[MinYoongi]

I wanted to ask if the region is Beta or Beta Gamma. 

ISWA lists it as Beta Gamma since 2Hours. Is that correct? I dont trust Noaa anymore.

Also :

I thought its 2 separate regions, lol.

the middle sunspot seems to be growing slightly, the left one closest to die limb looks unchanged and the right one seems to expand a bit.

So is this one region or actually 2 ? Is it 3014' s remnants?

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

According to HMI Farside Data, more to come  

 

There are several bright spots on STEREO A as well!

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

There are several bright spots on STEREO A as well!

but have they rotated into view already? Can you maybe show me which ones you mean that we dont see yet? :3 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

but have they rotated into view already? Can you maybe show me which ones you mean that we dont see yet? :3 

These: (they are not on the earth-facing disk yet)

[MinYoongi]

The region seems to be developing/growing 

only slightly. the 2 sunspots drove apart and inbetween them is growth

[MinYoongi]

ut picked up the pace (growing) in the last 2 hours. could it grow huge again?

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

The region seems to be developing/growing 

only slightly. the 2 sunspots drove apart and inbetween them is growth

We now have a confirmed Carrington longitude of 114 deg marking the centre of this region at 00:00 hours on 11th June. That, along with the latitude (20 deg), suggests that it has formed from the remnants of AR3011 and AR3014. We last saw AR3017 at Carrington longitude 90 degrees, meaning that the centre of that region would have been at E89 deg at 00:00 this morning, so that should be more visible by tomorrow, and in clear view by Monday.

The jsoc farside image suggests that there is a small region which detached from the tail end now sitting at Carrington 73.4 deg, so that should also appear tomorrow.

Slightly further back we have FS-2022-039, which looks like it might produce a small spot quite close to the equator. This can already be seen on Stereo, and looks fairly bright. The centre of the remaining part of that region should be on the limb by the 15th June.

There has been nothing showing on farside for the southern hemisphere, but Stereo indicates a nice bright spot coming into view.

Plenty to watch for the next few days !

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

We now have a confirmed Carrington longitude of 114 deg marking the centre of this region at 00:00 hours on 11th June. That, along with the latitude (20 deg), suggests that it has formed from the remnants of AR3011 and AR3014. We last saw AR3017 at Carrington longitude 90 degrees, meaning that the centre of that region would have been at E89 deg at 00:00 this morning, so that should be more visible by tomorrow, and in clear view by Monday.

The jsoc farside image suggests that there is a small region which detached from the tail end now sitting at Carrington 73.4 deg, so that should also appear tomorrow.

Slightly further back we have FS-2022-039, which looks like it might produce a small spot quite close to the equator. This can already be seen on Stereo, and looks fairly bright. The centre of the remaining part of that region should be on the limb by the 15th June.

There has been nothing showing on farside for the southern hemisphere, but Stereo indicates a nice bright spot coming into view.

Plenty to watch for the next few days !

Can you maybe show which spots you mean on Stereo? (if i understood it correctly youre talking about 2 right?) 

So its neither 3011 nor 3014? 😮 

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Can you maybe show which spots you mean on Stereo? (if i understood it correctly youre talking about 2 right?) 

Yes, two spots

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

So its neither 3011 nor 3014?

I think that is very likely, because they were so close together and equi-spaced around the new centre, but would want to investigate further before saying that I am completely certain.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, 3gMike said:

 

I think that is very likely, because they were so close together and equi-spaced around the new centre, but would want to investigate further before saying that I am completely certain.

Hmmm I'm not too sure. I watched 3014+3017 rotating off and kept track of the Farside Maps by Gong and Jsoc every day and they never really decayed, so its either the same region or at the exact same spot something new grew.

 

its growing faster now.

if its 3014 its weird, it always decays on the farside and grows on the earthside again.

[3gMike]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Hmmm I'm not too sure. I watched 3014+3017 rotating off and kept track of the Farside Maps by Gong and Jsoc every day and they never really decayed, so its either the same region or at the exact same spot something new grew.

The difficulty is that the farside maps do not show detail of individual spots. The magnetically active zone that we tracked was so large that it actually embraced the area associated with three spots - 3011, 3014 and 3017 and one plage - 3015. It is also worth noting that the zone on jsoc changed shape quite a bit as it crossed the farside, but was possibly shown a bit smaller and more consistent shape on Gong. That suggests that Gong may have been more influenced by 3014 - but I would need to check coordinates carefully to be sure.

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

if its 3014 its weird, it always decays on the farside and grows on the earthside again.

If you look at this table it is clear that 3014 grew until it peaked near centre disk, then decayed as it approached the west limb http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13014

It is also clear that apart from an initial Carrington location of 110, it stuck pretty much in the range 104 to 108. The new spot is at 114. It is possible that AR 3014 was re-arranged to produce this new coordinate. I've been looking at earthside HMI images of 3014 from around 18th May and it looks quite different to 3030

[MinYoongi]

26 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The difficulty is that the farside maps do not show detail of individual spots. The magnetically active zone that we tracked was so large that it actually embraced the area associated with three spots - 3011, 3014 and 3017 and one plage - 3015. It is also worth noting that the zone on jsoc changed shape quite a bit as it crossed the farside, but was possibly shown a bit smaller and more consistent shape on Gong. That suggests that Gong may have been more influenced by 3014 - but I would need to check coordinates carefully to be sure.

If you look at this table it is clear that 3014 grew until it peaked near centre disk, then decayed as it approached the west limb http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13014

It is also clear that apart from an initial Carrington location of 110, it stuck pretty much in the range 104 to 108. The new spot is at 114. It is possible that AR 3014 was re-arranged to produce this new coordinate. I've been looking at earthside HMI images of 3014 from around 18th May and it looks quite different to 3030

I couldnt agree with you more! 

So since we deal with a new region, do you think the location can have impact on its growth/behaviour? I mean because there were Deltas previously and if i'm correct, delta's seem to regrow there were other deltas died.

oh and dumb question @3gMike he incoming region just behind the northern limb isnt 3014 right? I think 3014 was due 9th/10th

[3gMike]

9 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

I couldnt agree with you more! 

So since we deal with a new region, do you think the location can have impact on its growth/behaviour? I mean because there were Deltas previously and if i'm correct, delta's seem to regrow there were other deltas died.

oh and dumb question @3gMike he incoming region just behind the northern limb isnt 3014 right? I think 3014 was due 9th/10th

No, definitely not 3014. If you remember, that region (FS-2022-039) originally sat almost vertically, covering latitudes 0 to 30 deg. The central longitude is more or less consistent with 3019, which left the west limb at latitude 14 deg as a plage. There is now a tiny spot showing close to those coordinates. My feeling is that the tail end, sitting at latitude 30deg and Carrington20 deg(approx) could be from AR3025

10 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

So since we deal with a new region, do you think the location can have impact on its growth/behaviour? I mean because there were Deltas previously and if i'm correct, delta's seem to regrow there were other deltas died.

I think that the growth/behaviour is affected by what is going on below the surface, but I am not aware of anyway to identify particular locations that may stimulate growth. Going back to 3014, it was interesting to observe that activity peaked around centre disk, but that does not mean we can assume the same will happen for 3030.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

55 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

No, definitely not 3014. If you remember, that region (FS-2022-039) originally sat almost vertically, covering latitudes 0 to 30 deg. The central longitude is more or less consistent with 3019, which left the west limb at latitude 14 deg as a plage. There is now a tiny spot showing close to those coordinates. My feeling is that the tail end, sitting at latitude 30deg and Carrington20 deg(approx) could be from AR3025

Don’t agree. AR3030 is 20 degrees north according to Jan Alvestad. He put AR3014 at 22 degrees north just before going to the Farside. Also my calculations show it has to return twice and will develop again.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Yak]

30 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Don’t agree. AR3030 is 20 degrees north according to Jan Alvestad. He put it at 22 degrees north just before going to the Farside. Also my calculations show it has to return twice and will develop again.

Show your working pls

[MinYoongi]

Thanks @3gMike 

Farside monitoring is one of my favorite activities

 

So, Solen.info said that a Magnetic Delta could form in the Region. But where? I dont see anything resembling a delta yet. Or is that a prediction just based on the fact that it is growing?

Ps:

2 Hour long C Class flare! What is the exact source region?

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Don’t agree. AR3030 is 20 degrees north according to Jan Alvestad. He put AR3014 at 22 degrees north just before going to the Farside. Also my calculations show it has to return twice and will develop again.

Patrick,

You have misread my comment. I was responding to a question relating to a region still on the farside.

I have said elsewhere in this thread that the coordinates for 3030 sit midway between 3011 and 3014 in terms of both latitude and longitude.