ARs3030/3032 (M3 flare, CME)

[Newbie]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Sounds good! But can you explain what you mean with that? (English is not my 1 Language:) )

Sure: When you get type II and IV RB's it usually indicates a significant CME, that's the good bit! Whether it's good for us - I was referring to the fact that there may be very little, if any, of the CME directed towards the Earth. 

N.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Newbie

[Calder]

44 minutes ago, Newbie said:

so it was attributed to 3030, that's interesting,  I don't know where that active region starts or stops anymore!

I was under the impression that this was 3032 and 3030. If this is the case then 3032 was the one that just had the M3.43.

[Newbie]

3 minutes ago, Calder said:

I was under the impression that this was 3032 and 3030. If this is the case then 3032 was the one that just had the M3.43.

Yeah, my point exactly!  I shrug my shoulders!

I'm hearing you

Latest from SolarSoft:

By the way they have filled in the blanks for flare locations in the last little while.

[WildWill]

It would seem that while I slept, with sugar plumbs dancing through my head, Santa was busy, all through the night, bringing solar delights! 
 

All of a sudden I see spots in the remnants of 3028, 3029, a new region on the east limb at/near the equator, 3032 - and of course, 3030 has bloomed quite nicely! We also have 3031, just below the remnants of 3029  - which has produced a couple of spots just to the north and east of 3031. The remnants of 2028 produced a few more spots, but seems to be fading - part of that perception could be that its moving out on the west limb. Meanwhile, at about the same latitude, on the eastern limb, yet another new region!

I was hoping for Spotted Sunday - but good things come to those who wait! I’ll settle for manic Monday!!

In addition, we have a nicely defined coronal hole, earth facing! 
 

I think the view of the sun at 171A provides the “best view” of all the activity currently abounding on the sun!

I also believe there is a significant probability of an exciting week to come! All this stuff to talk about!

6 hours ago, Newbie said:

Yeah, my point exactly!  I shrug my shoulders!

I'm hearing you

Latest from SolarSoft:

By the way they have filled in the blanks for flare locations in the last little while.

 4 flares, in the night, as I slept! I just thought I’d repost this for discussion! 
Thanks for the legwork Newbie!

L & ATG

[Newbie]

47 minutes ago, WildWill said:

It would seem that while I slept, with sugar plumbs dancing through my head, Santa was busy, all through the night, bringing solar delights! 
 

All of a sudden I see spots in the remnants of 3028, 3029, a new region on the east limb at/near the equator, 3032 - and of course, 3030 has bloomed quite nicely! We also have 3031, just below the remnants of 3029  - which has produced a couple of spots just to the north and east of 3031. The remnants of 2028 produced a few more spots, but seems to be fading - part of that perception could be that its moving out on the west limb. Meanwhile, at about the same latitude, on the eastern limb, yet another new region!

I was hoping for Spotted Sunday - but good things come to those who wait! I’ll settle for manic Monday!!

In addition, we have a nicely defined coronal hole, earth facing! 
 

I think the view of the sun at 171A provides the “best view” of all the activity currently abounding on the sun!

I also believe there is a significant probability of an exciting week to come! All this stuff to talk about!

 4 flares, in the night, as I slept! I just thought I’d repost this for discussion! 
Thanks for the legwork Newbie!

L & ATG

LOL Sugarplums WW? What a funny thing to dream about! 

Yes it's all happening on the Sun, hopefully! 

Exciting times as we hurtle or limp towards solar max!

171 is good, 131 is too, we are spoilt for choice.

N.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Newbie

[WildWill]

8 hours ago, Newbie said:

Whoever makes the call on Sunspot numbering needs to take a break IMHO.

 

It’s an “AI” computer program - and computer programs don’t make mistakes - just ask any customer service representative the next time you have a problem with a bill or an order…or anything!

 

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

It’s an “AI” computer program - and computer programs don’t make mistakes - just ask any customer service representative the next time you have a problem with a bill or an order…or anything!

 

GRR! That explains a lot!  Yeah friends never lie, don't know about AI computer programs! 

... and all this time I thought there was a little minion, with a pencil behind his ear, poring over maps and charts. I'm shattered! 

N.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Newbie

[Sam Warfel]

Holy cow! Look at this CME!!

It’s so bright, maybe the brightest I’ve seen, and median speed 1000km/s, max speed 1900km/s!

[Newbie]

5 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Holy cow! Look at this CME!!

It’s so bright, maybe the brightest I’ve seen, and median speed 1000km/s, max speed 1900km/s!

Wow, wow and wow!

[MinYoongi]

19 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Holy cow! Look at this CME!!

It’s so bright, maybe the brightest I’ve seen, and median speed 1000km/s, max speed 1900km/s!

Wow! Thank you for posting the pictures 🥰🤌

I honestly thought it would be much slower because the Radio Burst was so slow!

[Sam Warfel]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Wow! Thank you for posting the pictures 🥰🤌

I honestly thought it would be much slower because the Radio Burst was so slow!

I thought it would be slow too, but this is incredible! So sad it’s not Earth-directed, I’d guess that could be a G4!

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I thought it would be slow too, but this is incredible! So sad it’s not Earth-directed, I’d guess that could be a G4!

Noaa did Issue a G2 though because of a glancing blow, is that enough to get Aurora where youre living? If it is i DEMAND nice pictures!! 😀

 

This is this cycles coolest eruption yet, to me. 

The sunspot looks a bit less cool than it did before the flare however

[Sammyy]

Wow the video of that eruption looks awesome. I was surprised

[Sam Warfel]

32 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Noaa did Issue a G2 though because of a glancing blow, is that enough to get Aurora where youre living? If it is i DEMAND nice pictures!! 😀

It’s enough, if only clouds cooperated (that’s not very likely)

[Jesterface23]

This isn't a significant CME, but it is decent one if it comes down to a 2 day travel time which could bring solar wind velocities of up around 650-700km/s. Calculations I ran earlier came to a preliminary travel time of 58.75 hours -6/+8 hours or at 2022/06/15 14:15Z which would bring around 500-550km/s.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

It’s enough, if only clouds cooperated (that’s not very likely)

I hope they doooooo !!

 

By the way, can someone explain to me why noaa assigned 3032 a 10% X Chance? I dont see a Delta, as far as i know thats not always needed for X class but still? Just because of the LDE?

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, WildWill said:

It’s an “AI” computer program - and computer programs don’t make mistakes - just ask any customer service representative the next time you have a problem with a bill or an order…or anything!

 

Are you sure about that WildWill?

SWPC/NOAA states on their website

"Sunspot groups that are clearly visible and observed by designated ground-based observatories, are assigned a NOAA/SWPC 4-digit region number to officially record and track the sunspot group as it rotates across the visible solar disk. Sunspot groups are analyzed and characterized based on their size and complexity by SWPC forecasters each day using the modified Zurich classification scale and Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. This daily sunspot analysis and classification is submitted at the end of each UTC-day as the Solar Region Summary report."

2 hours ago, Newbie said:

... and all this time I thought there was a little minion, with a pencil behind his ear, poring over maps and charts. I'm shattered! 

Well, at least the synoptic maps are still hand-drawn 😁

[MinYoongi]

28 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Are you sure about that WildWill?

SWPC/NOAA states on their website

"Sunspot groups that are clearly visible and observed by designated ground-based observatories, are assigned a NOAA/SWPC 4-digit region number to officially record and track the sunspot group as it rotates across the visible solar disk. Sunspot groups are analyzed and characterized based on their size and complexity by SWPC forecasters each day using the modified Zurich classification scale and Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. This daily sunspot analysis and classification is submitted at the end of each UTC-day as the Solar Region Summary report."

Well, at least the synoptic maps are still hand-drawn 😁

I do think they take the classification from their synoptic maps or atleast its made by humans. 

because i've seen the korean space weather agency assigning per AI and it was always better than Noaa's. For an example, 2994 was assigned Beta Gamma for 2 Days by Noaa while long being Beta Gamma Delta already. The Korean Algorythm got it right.

[WildWill]

54 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Are you sure about that WildWill?

SWPC/NOAA states on their website

"Sunspot groups that are clearly visible and observed by designated ground-based observatories, are assigned a NOAA/SWPC 4-digit region number to officially record and track the sunspot group as it rotates across the visible solar disk. Sunspot groups are analyzed and characterized based on their size and complexity by SWPC forecasters each day using the modified Zurich classification scale and Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. This daily sunspot analysis and classification is submitted at the end of each UTC-day as the Solar Region Summary report."

Well, at least the synoptic maps are still hand-drawn 😁

It was a joke! I really didn’t think anyone would take the AI thing seriously, especially when I added: 

“ask a customer service representative when you call about your bill and they will tell you computers never make mistakes!”

Wow, what a response!

Gotta get outside, put my eyepieces outside 20 minutes ago, so they should be at about ambient temperature by now! Saharan dust hasn’t really moved in yet, clear skies! Should be good viewing!

WW

[MinYoongi]

 

New synoptic map  I still dont get the 10% X chance. asked earlier. did the magnetic layout change much? To me it looks weaker than before the M Class flare.

[mozy]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

New synoptic map  I still dont get the 10% X chance. asked earlier. did the magnetic layout change much? To me it looks weaker than before the M Class flare.

No I don't see any potential for X-flares.

It honestly feels like they're just like "Oh we had a long duration M-flare, let's up the X-flare potential because of it" .. lol

[Archmonoth]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

No I don't see any potential for X-flares.

It honestly feels like they're just like "Oh we had a long duration M-flare, let's up the X-flare potential because of it" .. lol

I don't think this is unreasonable, a change from 5-10% is still in the 90% NO category. Which is to say there is high level of uncertainty. 

[MinYoongi]

42 minutes ago, mozy said:

No I don't see any potential for X-flares.

It honestly feels like they're just like "Oh we had a long duration M-flare, let's up the X-flare potential because of it" .. lol

Exactly what I was trying to say.

 

 

[Drax Spacex]

"Sympathetic flaring" and the splitting of 3030 into 3030 and 3032 - interesting!

:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2022 Jun 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate. A long-duration M3/1n flare was observed at 13/0407 UTC from Region 3032 (N21E40, Dai/beta), however, sympathetic flaring was observed from Region 3030 (N20E28, Dao/beta). Type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts were observed in conjunction with this event. The associated CME is visible off the east in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/0312 UTC and analysis of the event and CME are underway. Region 3030 was split into two separate regions this period, with new Region 3032 consisting of the large negative polarity sunspot that was formerly considered the trailer portion, or eastward, of 3030.

[Yak]

Hopefully we get a big CME when it rotates more into the middle