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ARs3030/3032 (M3 flare, CME)


Sam Warfel
Message added by Sam Warfel,

(This topic is now officially for both AR3030 and AR3032, they are very related. This is the region that fired the M3 and CME)

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9 hours ago, Orneno said:

¡Santa vaca! ¡¡Mira este CME !!

E702A044-35C1-478E-A00B-68B080DFE385.jpeg

F056D24D-2119-431C-83A8-83C63C89FAE1.jpeg

¡Es tan brillante, tal vez el más brillante que he visto, y una velocidad media de 1000 km/s, velocidad máxima de 1900 km/s!

yes it is the brightest i saw also even more than 15

8 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Espero que lo haganoooo!!

 

Por cierto, ¿alguien puede explicarme por qué noaa asignó a 3032 un 10% X Chance? No veo un Delta, que yo sepa, eso no siempre es necesario para la clase X, pero ¿aún así? ¿Solo por la LDE?

 stated there is no point deltas

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2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

He means there are no deltas (I think)

No veo un delta ... I don't see a delta.

 

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

aw, sadge. yeah, it looks not as good anymore as it did 24h ago when it fired the flare.

Yes Min, bit unfortunate, often happens after a big eruption and that was a biggie!  

N.

Predicting G1 - G2 now!

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9 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Look into the Noaa Forecast Discussion. They said anything from No hit at all up to G3 could be possible, with G1 being the most likely

Well, I’ll hope for a G3 but I think a full miss is way more likely 

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Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The positioning was so close, yet so far. It looks like STEREO A took an impact after around 39 hours and IMF Bt near 30. That could of been a good chance of G3.

Noaa commented on that! It arrived 4 Hours earlier than they anticipated.

 

do you mean we will get a G3 ? Or what do you mean? :D 

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27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Noaa commented on that! It arrived 4 Hours earlier than they anticipated.

 

do you mean we will get a G3 ? Or what do you mean? :D 

I was 4 hours early heh

 

If only we had a chance of G3 at Earth right now. Look how close STEREO A is to Earth.

I'd say though, if the CME does hit Earth within the next few hours G2 could still be a maybe.

Edited by Jesterface23
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20 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

If only we had a chance of G3 at Earth right now. Look how close STEREO A is to Earth.

Yes I read that as well!

As Maxwell Smart would say "missed it by this much" (gesturing a small distance with his fingers).

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

But if i interpret the forecast correctly, they still anticipate a hit! 

Yeah Min we are still up for a glancing blow but if it had been more Earth directed a much stronger impact.

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Look on the bright side, some people like @Orneno calculate a full miss! :D 

Have low expectations, and you will never be dissapointed 😉

19 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The EPAMp is back on the rise.

Full halo (or >180 halo) CMEs are always Earth directed. Instead of hit or miss it is more of hit or will the CME be degraded by the solar wind.

Yeah, with an HSS above 500 right now, it may be almost undetectable 

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