Vancanneyt Sander Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: I always thought Delta's make X-Class Flaring *very* probable but from what I can read, people still expect more M than X - Class Action? Beta-gamma-delta regions are capable of strong solar flares, but only the very complex regions with several strong delta structures can produce the bigger X-Class solar flares. A region with a small delta spot is only good for M-flares, big delta structures that are very close to other spots have the strongest magnetic shear and cause X-class flares. this region has a compact delta spot close to the other spot so X-class flare can’t be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Beta-gamma-delta regions are capable of strong solar flares, but only the very complex regions with several strong delta structures can produce the bigger X-Class solar flares. A region with a small delta spot is only good for M-flares, big delta structures that are very close to other spots have the strongest magnetic shear and cause X-class flares. this region has a compact delta spot close to the other spot so X-class flare can’t be ruled out. Thank you 🙂 So an X-Class isnt ruled out but it only harbours energy for low X-Class + M-Class flaring is more probable because it has not developed more deltas etc. ? Hah the whole shear thing, it's actually so hard to find good information about this, even in Noaa's glossary. Still happy you explained that a while back One more thing, in it's forecast noaa said that the spot grew in spot count. When i watch the sunspot archive on here, the spot has less spots than yesterday. Noaa drunk again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 This seems to be the strongest and most decent delta spot that I have seen in SC25 (which is not in the limb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Just now, abc said: This seems to be the strongest and most decent delta spot that I have seen in SC25 (which is not in the limb) 2993/4 had good ones when they rotated over but then fizzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunspotRager93 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Does anyone know why this region is expanding very fast? Just for no intention? I am sorry if that is conspicuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) mozy, for the first time ever, i found the delta myself :)! Edited May 4, 2022 by Orneno 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: mozy, for the first time ever, i found the delta myself :)! You'll be good at it soon enough with the solar cycle ramping up quickly now. ^^ I guess we can just relax for a day or two before this region starts firing some X-classes as they normally do You know, they'd rather wait until they're not directly facing earth. or if they do they don't produce any CME's 😝 Edited May 4, 2022 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 hours ago, mozy said: You'll be good at it soon enough with the solar cycle ramping up quickly now. ^^ I guess we can just relax for a day or two before this region starts firing some X-classes as they normally do You know, they'd rather wait until they're not directly facing earth. or if they do they don't produce any CME's 😝 Argh, is the spot alreaedy departing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Sooo.. Noaa still saying 25% for an Xclass. Is it accurate? Synoptic map is crap and not updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 @Orneno CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @Orneno CME? I saw that too. Maybe, but we’ve had a couple others of those in the past few days and I haven’t seen any big CMEs, so I’m not very optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Getting better now 👌 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Jack said: Getting better now 👌 Are they new? noaa classified the spot as Beta Gamma and i was already wondering if there still is a delta. So now its even two? What does that change? Edited May 5, 2022 by MinYoongi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 24 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Are they new? noaa classified the spot as Beta Gamma and i was already wondering if there still is a delta. So now its even two? What does that change? Region 13004 [S14W17] developed quickly and has a fairly strong magnetic delta with the leading penumbra. Major flares, including X class flares, are possible. Always check Soleninfo. NOAA ARE AMATEURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 35 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: noaa classified the spot as Beta Gamma and i was already wondering if there still is a delta. So now its even two? What does that change? It still has two strong magnetic delta structures like @Jack nicely has shown in his image. So it's still beta-gamma-delta 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: It still has two strong magnetic delta structures like @Jack nicely has shown in his image. So it's still beta-gamma-delta 😉 Classical Noa move.. its sad. I asked earlier if that changes Flare likeliness alot, because it previously had only 1 Delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 I'm quite baffled how this region is struggling to even get into the upper C-class range, would've expected atleast a couple of M-flares since yesterday, probably only a matter of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 33 minutes ago, mozy said: I'm quite baffled how this region is struggling to even get into the upper C-class range, would've expected atleast a couple of M-flares since yesterday, probably only a matter of time though. Yes, from what i can see when comparing SDO images, its still growing. Dont know if its getting more or less complex though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 is this another delta forming? (north of the blue) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is this another delta forming? (north of the blue) Nope, unfortunately not. Edited May 5, 2022 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Just now, mozy said: Nope, unfortunately not. Ah, im sorry then. Any news on our Region? To me it looks like the existing delta(s? i dont know if its one or two?) got a little more compact? I dont know if it changes much about the regions flare potential though :< I thought the recent M-Class came from it, but it's only producing C-Class Flares as of now. by the way: Noaa still assigning it as Beta Gamma 🤡 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Ah, im sorry then. Any news on our Region? To me it looks like the existing delta(s? i dont know if its one or two?) got a little more compact? I dont know if it changes much about the regions flare potential though :< I thought the recent M-Class came from it, but it's only producing C-Class Flares as of now. by the way: Noaa still assigning it as Beta Gamma 🤡 The first M class came from it, the second one from AR3006, the delta's are still there but shrinking a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, mozy said: The first M class came from it, the second one from AR3006, the delta's are still there but shrinking a bit. it is shrinking a lot sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, abc said: it is shrinking a lot sadly Hope we get more spot formation soon or it might collapse completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, mozy said: Hope we get more spot formation soon or it might collapse completely. 50 minutes ago, abc said: it is shrinking a lot sadly Oh, so the spot / delta is decaying? To me it looked like it was growing 😧 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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