Drax Spacex Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, lightpanther said: But over long hours does the Bz actually show reliable trends at all? Or is it like the stock market? No matter what people claim, you actually just can't predict it? Yes and yes. Sometimes Bz has a smooth trend with a low standard deviation over some window of time. Other times it's unpredictably chaotic. It's a box of chocolates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirvegs Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I noticed this strange behavior from EPAM. Could it be something more incoming? Or perhaps just an old satellite being weird. t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sirvegs said: I noticed this strange behavior from EPAM. Could it be something more incoming? Or perhaps just an old satellite being weird. t Can you specify what you find weird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finn Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, lightpanther said: But over long hours does the Bz actually show reliable trends at all? Or is it like the stock market? No matter what people claim, you actually just can't predict it? Yes it does — of the parameter that it measures, and trends especially. If you see Bz drawing a rather steady line, the value will probably be a steady line when it reaches us. But if Bz out there in space is measuring chaotic zig-zag, then it probably won't suddenly "behave itself" just before reaching the Earth, but it will be chaotic zig-zag when it arrives. Generally, where there is activity, there is heat, and heat itself is just chaotic jiggling, everything's in motion. If there's been a violent solar flare, you can usually expect wild graphs that are all over the place; After all, you're sort of measuring activity of the debris from a massive explosion! Bz is measured by a satellite called DSCVR, and the particles that it measures Bz from take about an hour to reach the Earth. The speed varies because so does the speed of solar wind. Let's put that one hour trip to scale: DSCVR is 1 million miles away from the Earth. The Sun is 93 million miles away from the Earth. (I don't even understand miles myself but I'm using them in this case because 1 million miles is a nice and clean value and I'm trying to demonstrate the difference of these numbers, not so much the actual distance in the literal sense.) The Bz measurement is being taken at the end of the journey when those particles are already almost here. It gives a very good idea of the general direction of what the polarity is going to be when reaching the Earth. Except when it's just all over the place — then that's what you probably get. In principle, when the Bz graph is being created on the basis of the DSCVR satellite data, local magnetometer stations on the Earth will also be measuring their own take on the Z value once the particles reach us. There are also satellites orbiting the Earth (extremely close but in space) that are recording values. I'm not sure, was GOES one of those satellites? See the first picture in this article for a visual representation of what Bz (or Bx, By) really are: Z stands for a vertical axis, as it's the (vertical) North-South direction that we're interested in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirvegs Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Can you specify what you find weird? The jumpy behavior of protons, and that protons and electrons are rising at roughly the same time. Which I have never seen before. I could just be grasping at straws... Tonight is a perfect night for observing and it would be incredible to have some aroura. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Another possibility tonight, and yet again Scotland's cloud situation is a basket case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 On 3/30/2022 at 2:45 PM, Orneno said: It’s actually a descriptive scientific term, but it does seem dramatic out of context. Perhaps “merged CME” would be better. An example https://www.sciencealert.com/northern-us-could-see-aurora-as-a-powerful-cannibal-corona-heads-our-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Do we perhaps have the X1 CME arriving now? Solar wind & density picked up & BZ dipped southwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, mozy said: Do we perhaps have the X1 CME arriving now? Solar wind & density picked up & BZ dipped southwards Certainly appears that way. Hopefully things get interesting over the coming hours. Looks like LASCO hasn't had any additional outages since yesterday, too, so that's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, mozy said: Do we perhaps have the X1 CME arriving now? Solar wind & density picked up & BZ dipped southwards Seems to look like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Orneno said: Seems to look like it! Too bad It's already 3:30AM here, gonna wait & see if I manage to see anything before it starts getting bright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 47 minutes ago, mozy said: Too bad It's already 3:30AM here, gonna wait & see if I manage to see anything before it starts getting bright I’m keeping a weather eye out myself from the US, although it will need to hurry up cause it’s getting cloudier later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: I’m keeping a weather eye out myself from the US, although it will need to hurry up cause it’s getting cloudier later And it’s getting clearer here 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: And it’s getting clearer here 😂 Trade me? Today was my one clear day, after this… not so much 😒😫 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Orneno said: I’m keeping a weather eye out myself from the US, although it will need to hurry up cause it’s getting cloudier later Wishing you luck lol, too bad the BZ started messing up, I only saw a dim green line for awhile before disappearing & now the sun is starting to go up so ggs, we've had clear weather every night now for the past week but then the CME's arrive late or just flop instead, gonna have to wait untill autumn again soon, but activity should have picked up even more then compared to now so, exciting times ahead ^^ Edited April 2, 2022 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, mozy said: Wishing you luck lol, too bad the BZ started messing up, I only saw a dim green line for awhile before disappearing & now the sun is starting to go up so ggs, we've had clear weather every night now for the past week but then the CME's arrive late or just flop instead, gonna have to wait untill autumn again soon, but activity should have picked up even more then compared to now so, exciting times ahead ^^ Looking forward to maximum 😁😄 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Orneno said: Trade me? Today was my one clear day, after this… not so much 😒😫 Well unless you want this randomness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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