Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 31 March

[Marcel de Bont]

The NOAA SWPC expects strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions on 31 March due to the arrival of two coronal mass ejections launched by sunspot region 2975. Use this topic to discuss the storm watch and the expected geomagnetic conditions.

News item https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/461/20220329-two-coronal-mass-ejections-g3-storm-watch.html

[MinYoongi]

 

18 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

The NOAA SWPC expects strong G3 geomagnetic storm conditions on 31 March due to the arrival of two coronal mass ejections launched by sunspot region 2975. Use this topic to discuss the storm watch and the expected geomagnetic conditions.

News item https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/461/20220329-two-coronal-mass-ejections-g3-storm-watch.html

Nice article! Do you think G3 is a fitting Prediction? Why dont you look too much into Enlils speed/density?

[Marcel de Bont]

I think it is too optimistic in my honest opinion, this is not a fast gorgeous, dense full halo and I am afraid that the two CMEs combined will wreak havoc on the magnetic fields. Last time this happened was a while ago but I remember the impact was very mediocre. I will be very happy if we touch G2 to be honest but of course I really hope for G3!

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said:

I think it is too optimistic in my honest opinion, this is not a fast gorgeous, dense full halo and I am afraid that the two CMEs combined will wreak havoc on the magnetic fields. Last time this happened was a while ago but I remember the impact was very mediocre. I will be very happy if we touch G2 to be honest but of course I really hope for G3!

Oh okay because in the forecast discussion made by noaa ive read about 840km/h or something! I dont know stuff about density though. I trust your opinion and of course i hope the photographers get a nice lil show 🥰 

And I think its better Noaa sometimes overcasts storms

i've read some people not ruling out a G4, which made me scratch my head a little bit 

[Edsard]

Let's hope the equinox stimulates the aurora to become a G3 storm!

[Marcel de Bont]

13 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Oh okay because in the forecast discussion made by noaa ive read about 840km/h or something! I dont know stuff about density though. I trust your opinion and of course i hope the photographers get a nice lil show 🥰 

And I think its better Noaa sometimes overcasts storms

i've read some people not ruling out a G4, which made me scratch my head a little bit 

Well NOAA wrote this:

Initial analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from
both events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively.

But that is their speeds near the Sun. These clouds slow down as they expand outwards away from the Sun so these wont be the speed we will have at Earth. But because the second cloud is faster these clouds will merge somewhere between our planet and the Sun and the limited I experience I have with these kind of impacts weren't great. But I hope I am very wrong of course I love to see G3! If the Bz goes proper southwards for a while it is possible!

But yeah NOAA do over forecast and it is understandable. We are not their customers. Power grid operators, satellite grid operators etc... those are their customer. That said, I will eat a chunk of my desk if we reach G4, that is very unlikely.

[Cat Perkinton]

19 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Well NOAA wrote this:

Initial analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from
both events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively.

But that is their speeds near the Sun. These clouds slow down as they expand outwards away from the Sun so these wont be the speed we will have at Earth. But because the second cloud is faster these clouds will merge somewhere between our planet and the Sun and the limited I experience I have with these kind of impacts weren't great. But I hope I am very wrong of course I love to see G3! If the Bz goes proper southwards for a while it is possible!

But yeah NOAA do over forecast and it is understandable. We are not their customers. Power grid operators, satellite grid operators etc... those are their customer. That said, I will eat a chunk of my desk if we reach G4, that is very unlikely.

Please can you post an image of the desk so that, in the unlikely event of G4, we can assist with your menu choices & direct you to the choicest chunk? 

[Sam Warfel]

46 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Last time this happened was a while ago but I remember the impact was very mediocre.

I mean, the cannibal CME Nov. 3rd was stronger than expected, and turned out to be a very strong G3/borderline G4. That’s the strongest geomagnetic storm I’ve seen since I’ve started watching, so I’m optimistic for cannibal CMEs. 

[lightpanther]

Right...and the CME a couple of days ago. If I remember correctly that was billed to give max storm conditions at 03.00 UTC, whereas it seemed to me that the strongest activity was around midnight.

If this thing is late, it wont be much use in UK, as astronomical darkness ends at 04.15.

[Sunboi]

1 hour ago, Marcel de Bont said:

I think it is too optimistic in my honest opinion, this is not a fast gorgeous, dense full halo and I am afraid that the two CMEs combined will wreak havoc on the magnetic fields. Last time this happened was a while ago but I remember the impact was very mediocre. I will be very happy if we touch G2 to be honest but of course I really hope for G3!

The Nov 3-4 cannibal CME was a cooker! Extended -20bz and >700km/sec solar winds. I didn’t look into the numbers much on this recent event though. But I was expecting a slightly less but similar occurrence. 

[Cat Perkinton]

15 minutes ago, lightpanther said:

Right...and the CME a couple of days ago. If I remember correctly that was billed to give max storm conditions at 03.00 UTC, whereas it seemed to me that the strongest activity was around midnight.

If this thing is late, it wont be much use in UK, as astronomical darkness ends at 04.15.

always a slight possibility of it landing early too, like the mahoosive 3rd November last year which wasn't expected until the 4th.......

[David Baker]

Sorry to be obtuse but just after midnight on 31st March seems to place this as early hours on 1st.?  Just checking as sleep is precious and planning is key if I have hope of finding clear skies.

[Hayday]

I really hope we get some aurora action, always exciting waiting to see if theyll come out (even though I cant see them with how far south I am lol).

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Cat Perkinton said:

always a slight possibility of it landing early too, like the mahoosive 3rd November last year which wasn't expected until the 4th.......

Feels like yesterday.. but was november?! Oh my! How much early did it arrive again?

[lightpanther]

It will need to be fashionably early for the Brits among us, as UTC is now an hour behind BST. If it arrives on schedule it will be dawn already.

[Flareguy18]

The predictions look very hopeful for the northern U.S, but sadly there will be clouds and rain/wind in Wisconsin when it strikes. I probably will miss out  

[lightpanther]

A question:

 

If the leading edge arrives at 00:00 why is the storming not maxing till after 03:00 on the model? Peak of the wave?

[Cat Perkinton]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Feels like yesterday.. but was november?! Oh my! How much early did it arrive again?

From memory it was anticipated for the evening of the 4th (might have been forecast earlier here, but I was not on this forum then, so was using NOAA for data) but went bonkers from around 9.30pm on the 3rd..image below was just after 10pm

 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Cat Perkinton said:

From memory it was anticipated for the evening of the 4th (might have been forecast earlier here, but I was not on this forum then, so was using NOAA for data) but went bonkers from around 9.30pm on the 3rd..image below was just after 10pm

 

So it was a whole day early?! Nice pictures ❤️

[Solarflaretracker200]

For me around NOV 3 1:25pm space weather went into INSANE MODE. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200
English is my problem

[northeastlights]

3 hours ago, Orneno said:

I mean, the cannibal CME Nov. 3rd was stronger than expected, and turned out to be a very strong G3/borderline G4. That’s the strongest geomagnetic storm I’ve seen since I’ve started watching, so I’m optimistic for cannibal CMEs. 

I've been comparing this week's events with that same cannibal CME from Nov. 2021, it'll be interesting to see if they are at all similar when they reach earth. The two events look close enough on the ENLIL but the speed, angle, and eruption location of the two sets of CMEs are all different. 

[Sam Warfel]

14 minutes ago, northeastlights said:

I've been comparing this week's events with that same cannibal CME from Nov. 2021, it'll be interesting to see if they are at all similar when they reach earth. The two events look close enough on the ENLIL but the speed, angle, and eruption location of the two sets of CMEs are all different. 

Keep us updated with any new comparisons, like after they’ve arrived. 

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, lightpanther said:

A question:

 

If the leading edge arrives at 00:00 why is the storming not maxing till after 03:00 on the model? Peak of the wave?

Our magnetic shield needs some time to react, to put it really simple.

It gets rung like a bell!

5 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

I think it is too optimistic in my honest opinion, this is not a fast gorgeous, dense full halo and I am afraid that the two CMEs combined will wreak havoc on the magnetic fields. Last time this happened was a while ago but I remember the impact was very mediocre. I will be very happy if we touch G2 to be honest but of course I really hope for G3!

Early on 31 Mar, G3 (Strong) levels are likely, with a chance for G4 (Severe) or greater geomagnetic storms, as the bulk of the CMEs impacts the Earth throughout the day. 

G4 or Greater? O.o

[lightpanther]

Nasa now has leading edge arrival billed for 06.00 UTC (7am UK time). I hope they're wrong! There'll be enough light to repair a watch on a portable stool by that time.

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, lightpanther said:

Nasa now has leading edge arrival billed for 06.00 UTC (7am UK time). I hope they're wrong! There'll be enough light to repair a watch on a portable stool by that time.

So Nasa and Noaa are like 5'6 hours apart? Lets hope enlil is right then with impact time after midnight UTC. Should be really dark in Europe then

Ah i forgot to ask. Which Forecast do you guys usually trust more? Nasa or Noaa? (Not just today, more in general)