Marcel de Bont Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 18 uren geleden, Cat Perkinton zei: Please can you post an image of the desk so that, in the unlikely event of G4, we can assist with your menu choices & direct you to the choicest chunk? Haha, no pictures but trust me, its a thick wooden desk. I rather not have to take a chunk out of it. 18 uren geleden, Orneno zei: I mean, the cannibal CME Nov. 3rd was stronger than expected, and turned out to be a very strong G3/borderline G4. That’s the strongest geomagnetic storm I’ve seen since I’ve started watching, so I’m optimistic for cannibal CMEs. That is true I forgot that but pretty sure that was just one of the CMEs being much more stronger than any of the other ones. Either way, lets wait and see, I can just not get my hopes up too much based purely on what I saw on LASCO. 14 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei: G4 or Greater? O.o I bet a chunk of my desk and probably many teeth on that that's not going to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: I bet a chunk of my desk and probably many teeth on that that's not going to happen. Oh dont get me wrong, i agree with you. Im just confused they mentioned it. (But not upped any warning/timeline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Oh dont get me wrong, i agree with you. Im just confused they mentioned it. (But not upped any warning/timeline) In their forecast discussion they think the G3 level is likely to be reached and there is a chance of G4. Whenever their confidence is below 50% I think it isn't issued as a watch. So they think G4 is possible but not likely. But you need to think like this... they are the experts and they need to think about their customers who protect critical infrastructure so better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 uur geleden, MinYoongi zei: Ah i forgot to ask. Which Forecast do you guys usually trust more? Nasa or Noaa? Sometimes swpc is correct, then an other forecaster… but in general: CMEs tend to be never on time 😂 and second: predicted Kp is often not what it will become once it has arrived. bottomline: CMEs are a waiting game and you’ll eventually see if it’s good for your location or not when it actually has arrived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: In their forecast discussion they think the G3 level is likely to be reached and there is a chance of G4. Whenever their confidence is below 50% I think it isn't issued as a watch. So they think G4 is possible but not likely. But you need to think like this... they are the experts and they need to think about their customers who protect critical infrastructure so better safe than sorry. This actually makes perfect sense. i was getting a bit nervous again, but i came to the conclusion that those cme's are nowhere near what we already saw for an example in 2003. Even the usual fearmongers on social media are quiet about it 😃😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Certainly not calling myself an expert, but I reckon G4 is extremely unlikely. Even G3 is pushing it imo (but it could happen!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 To me, calling such CMEs "cannibals" is like asking for fear mongering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 46 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: To me, calling such CMEs "cannibals" is like asking for fear mongering. It’s actually a descriptive scientific term, but it does seem dramatic out of context. Perhaps “merged CME” would be better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I agree @Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 uur terug, Orneno zei: It’s actually a descriptive scientific term, but it does seem dramatic out of context. Perhaps “merged CME” would be better. Not always merged, sometimes it also eliminates the other CME leaving nothing and no impact 😉 some merge and come in stronger, but some are a real cannibal by eating each other and leave nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Not always merged, sometimes it also eliminates the other CME leaving nothing and no impact 😉 some merge and come in stronger, but some are a real cannibal by eating each other and leave nothing how can two somethings produce nothing? Or did you mean it's like getting one normal CME instead of two or a special combined CME? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: how can two somethings produce nothing? Or did you mean it's like getting one normal CME instead of two or a special combined CME? He could mean they maybe combine and thus make the Bz positive or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Perkinton Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: He could mean they maybe combine and thus make the Bz positive or something? I think of it a bit like a rotary washing dryer, one gust makes it spin one way but another coming from a slightly different direction can halt it or send it spinning the other way..... so two CME at different speeds can stall the direction of the IMF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Orneno said: how can two somethings produce nothing? Or did you mean it's like getting one normal CME instead of two or a special combined CME? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_interference is a way two somethings can be subtractive and possibly produce nothing, or they can be additive and combine in-phase as the sum of the two parts, or something in between. Edited March 30, 2022 by Drax Spacex grammar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 So we wait anxiously for impact. It's coming, it's coming, it's coming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: So we wait anxiously for impact. It's coming, it's coming, it's coming!! Yeah, aren’t we near the start of the expected impact window? I’m not really watching because most of my entire continent is covered in snow clouds and rain 😭😭 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, Orneno said: Yeah, aren’t we near the start of the expected impact window? I’m not really watching because most of my entire continent is covered in snow clouds and rain 😭😭 Isn't it weird how my area was predicted to be cloudy all night, yet the clouds are currently breaking up? Personally, I am so excited because of that! Sorry to hear that your area is cloudy still though, Orneno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Thanks, it is what it is 🥲 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 I think I see the beginning of the CME shock at the end of the data! *grabs popcorn* Also, here's this! WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2022 Mar 31 0210 UTC Valid To: 2022 Mar 31 0300 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2022 Mar 31 0140 UTC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Speed to 500, BZ to -10. Doesn’t look like much yet, but as I recall, that was the case with the cannibal CME Nov 3rd. It had a stair-step pattern to it as the successive CMEs arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: Speed to 500, BZ to -10. Doesn’t look like much yet, but as I recall, that was the case with the cannibal CME Nov 3rd. It had a stair-step pattern to it as the successive CMEs arrived. Yep, sounds about right. This is a pretty good initial start. Bz is on a steady fall which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Density to 40, that’s pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laney Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Good Luck everyone! I envy those who have clear skies! I'm new, by the way. Glad to be part of this awesome forum! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 It’s going north, oof Just now, Laney said: Good Luck everyone! I envy those who have clear skies! I'm new, by the way. Glad to be part of this awesome forum! Welcome! I hope you enjoy your time on the forums! I envy those clear skies as well… 😭 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPMK Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Im waiting for the boom! Suns rising in about 1-2 hours… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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