AR2975, M9 flare

[Flareguy18]

11 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

You're kidding, right? I mean- KP isn't 9...

We won't be seeing auroras in Miami with this activity. Not even close. We would need a fast CME hitting head-on for that.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, prepper said:

the thing is there is not a "its aprils fooll"" at the end of the new hahah. but we know how the newspapers are xd.

Yeah who knows.

There are several reasons why I don't believe that Florida (yes I translated it) will get to see the northern lights 

1: There has been no major flare like an X20+

2: There would be people talking about it like crazy

3: It would say it on more than just one website 

 

That is how I know it's a lie. UNLESS that website predicts the future but that's impossible. 🤣

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Flareguy18 said:

We won't be seeing auroras in Miami with this activity. Not even close. We would need a fast CME hitting head-on for that.

We’d need a direct impact from that CME that was over the NE limb on the farside a month or two back, that turned out to be mostly south Bz. 

[MinYoongi]

Thats the thing with mass media.

A german newspaper which i usually like wrote 2 days ago that "The CME will then cause a Solar Storm at Earth resulting in Aurora". I wouldnt take em too serious. Theyre usually not into the field at all and report on spaceweather cuz activity is high. The Data shows no indication for activity in Miami.

[Sam Warfel]

Miami? What kinda fool wrote that? Literally no question about whether it’s even possible

We don’t know everything about space weather, but we do know that much 

[prepper]

47 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Miami? What kinda fool wrote that? Literally no question about whether it’s even possible

We don’t know everything about space weather, but we do know that much 

and imagine that there are a lot of "important newspapers"" writing about it hahaha lol.

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Miami? What kinda fool wrote that? Literally no question about whether it’s even possible

We don’t know everything about space weather, but we do know that much 

Some fool that was spreading propaganda to stir excitement.  

[prepper]

Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Some fool that was spreading propaganda to stir excitement.  

bro i was scared like, wtf i mean if that happens it has to be something huge :v, im new but im learning everyday, i thanks to all you guys and now im good because i know the world is not ending haha..but im thinking hey imagine if we are experiencing x flares right now what will be when we reach maximum in 2025 :v

[MinYoongi]

30 minutes ago, prepper said:

bro i was scared like, wtf i mean if that happens it has to be something huge :v, im new but im learning everyday, i thanks to all you guys and now im good because i know the world is not ending haha..but im thinking hey imagine if we are experiencing x flares right now what will be when we reach maximum in 2025 :v

Maximum does not mean there have to be super flares or only strong flares and cmes. Dont worry 🥰

[Solarflaretracker200]

@prepper We could have a very quiet maximum or a very intense maximum. It just depends. 

[prepper]

good to know guys. much love.

[Sam Warfel]

Down to B-class, for the first time in a number of days. 2975 must be going over the limb. Goodbye…

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Orneno said:

Down to B-class, for the first time in a number of days. 2975 must be going over the limb. Goodbye…

But 2981 may take the lead next 

[prepper]

4 hours ago, Orneno said:

Down to B-class, for the first time in a number of days. 2975 must be going over the limb. Goodbye…

you were right

[KW2P]

On 4/2/2022 at 2:58 AM, prepper said:

what does it means?

I like to learn more about this question. For decades my interest in the sun was almost entirely focused on the effects on shortwave radio propagation. That's what I cared about.  Only recently have I begun to take an active interest in the sun itself and how it works. Hanging out on this site and then doing more reading, I'm learning more.

From my radio-centric point of view, when the solar wind brings more electrons, it's good for radio. More electrons means more free electrons in the ionosphere, which makes it more conductive and thus more reflective of radio waves.

I'm accustomed to seeing electron flux values of tens to hundreds. (I believe the figure is electrons per second per square centimeter.)  Values of 1500 to 2000 are above normal and very good. The value I saw that prompted my comment was a thousand time higher at 1.8 million, which prompted a "Wow!" from me. I've never seen it that high.

I don't know how high that number can actually go and I don't know if there are additional effects that come with such high numbers. Electrons have little mass and are charged so they will definitely follow Earth's magnetic lines of force, spiraling along them and then be directed to Earth's poles. Perhaps they enhance the intensity of the aurora? I don't know.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, KW2P said:

I like to learn more about this question. For decades my interest in the sun was almost entirely focused on the effects on shortwave radio propagation. That's what I cared about.  Only recently have I begun to take an active interest in the sun itself and how it works. Hanging out on this site and then doing more reading, I'm learning more.

From my radio-centric point of view, when the solar wind brings more electrons, it's good for radio. More electrons means more free electrons in the ionosphere, which makes it more conductive and thus more reflective of radio waves.

I'm accustomed to seeing electron flux values of tens to hundreds. (I believe the figure is electrons per second per square centimeter.)  Values of 1500 to 2000 are above normal and very good. The value I saw that prompted my comment was a thousand time higher at 1.8 million, which prompted a "Wow!" from me. I've never seen it that high.

I don't know how high that number can actually go and I don't know if there are additional effects that come with such high numbers. Electrons have little mass and are charged so they will definitely follow Earth's magnetic lines of force, spiraling along them and then be directed to Earth's poles. Perhaps they enhance the intensity of the aurora? I don't know.

I just ask myself where you get those numbers from? GOES electron Flux is below Threshhold so i dont know where youre pulling the numbers from? Or do you mean some other Electron Flux?

[Solarflaretracker200]

Last goodbye from AR2975: A C6.47 which could have been a m class if it wasn't that far over the limb, I don't know.

[mozy]

Hm, the CME from the M9 flare might've hit us after all, looks like we just had a very minor CME impact

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hm, the CME from the M9 flare might've hit us after all, looks like we just had a very minor CME impact

Maaaaaybe, but it could easily not be. We might be able to tell in the coming hours as it passes 

[KW2P]

16 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

I just ask myself where you get those numbers from? GOES electron Flux is below Threshhold so i dont know where youre pulling the numbers from? Or do you mean some other Electron Flux?

Just about every ham radio oriented web site, blog, whatever, displays one of the propagation data banners from N0NBH's site:

http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

This is the primary source for what you need to know if you're interested in radio propagation. The banners are free to use and embed in your own sites as long as they are credited.

Arguably the most popular single site used by hams is QRZ.com.  As you can see, the N0NBH banner is displayed.  https://www.qrz.com/

Anyway, that's my primary source where I can see everything in one glance.

Here are some "rules of thumb" for interpreting the numbers:

https://www.hamqsl.com/solar2.html#usingdata

The electron flux value is reported hourly by NOAA but I don't have a link to the source. Sourcing (but not links) are shown on this page: https://www.hamqsl.com/solar2.html#glossary

EDIT: It just occurred to me that I should mention that some hams are interested in the aurora, not because it's pretty to look at but because you can bounce radio signals off the aurora. This is one of the many sub-hobbies of ham radio. When you have a good aurora, hams that are into this will point their directional antennas north and see who they can contact. For this we usually use CW (Morse code) or specialized digital modes, rather than voice modes like single-sideband. This is because the signal is frequently distorted and takes on a very recognizable "watery" wobbly kind of sound. 

EDIT2: Paying attention as my day goes on, I should mention that the most frequent thing I refer to hourly throughout the day is an Android app called "Ham Solar" by 9W2ZOW. I use this app to view the above mentioned banner, nice and big. The app also shows logged recent contacts on a world map in various colors denoting what frequency band was used.

Another resource I never see mentioned by hams but what I refer to at least once a day is here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

The above is a NOAA product that gives a 3-day running forecast of Kp index at 3 hour intervals along with forecasts for radiation storm probability, blackout probability, and the cause.

Edited April 4, 2022 by KW2P
Addenda

[MinYoongi]

Does someone know if the current C-Level enhancements/cracklings + Background Lvls are still caused by 2975? 

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Does someone know if the current C-Level enhancements/cracklings + Background Lvls are still caused by 2975? 

I almost doubt it, something else has to be causing it, but I don't know. 

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I almost doubt it, something else has to be causing it, but I don't know. 

But almost every Region isnt really complex. @Vancanneyt Sander  youre really experienced do you maybe have an idea?

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

But almost every Region isnt really complex.

True 🤣

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Does someone know if the current C-Level enhancements/cracklings + Background Lvls are still caused by 2975? 

Just look at the solar flare list to find out which region produced what 😉 not much was produced by 2975, there are other regions as well.