Sam Warfel Posted April 2, 2022 Author Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mozy said: I mean I was hoping for the one facing us for a possible earth-directed CME Same, I wish it was 2981 instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, mozy said: I mean I was hoping for the one facing us for a possible earth-directed CME I think 2981 has some tricks planned for us, just hoping it doesn't take too long! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: I think 2981 has some tricks planned for us, just hoping it doesn't take too long! It has lost a bit of It's complexity & not really growing that much anymore, I'm rooting for the sunspots coming over the limb the next couple of days instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 I feel 2981 is going to do a X class or M class. 🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 This thread will contain commentary about S3000 at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Wow, I was just looking at the solar numbers before going to bed. The electron flux is higher than I've ever seen it at 1.82 million. That's a thousand times higher than what's normally considered "fairly high". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prepper Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Just now, KW2P said: Wow, I was just looking at the solar numbers before going to bed. The electron flux is higher than I've ever seen it at 1.82 million. That's a thousand times higher than what's normally considered "fairly high". what does it means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, KW2P said: Wow, I was just looking at the solar numbers before going to bed. The electron flux is higher than I've ever seen it at 1.82 million. That's a thousand times higher than what's normally considered "fairly high". Im confused too.. does someone has an Idea? @Flareguy18maybe? To me the GOES solar electron flux looks normal?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 5 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Im confused too.. does someone has an Idea? @Flareguy18maybe? To me the GOES solar electron flux looks normal?? Electrons are another type of energized particle that can be emitted by solar activity (the other kind being protons). A high electron flux can result in increased charging of spacecraft, and if significant enough can cause malfunctions. Right now, the flux looks elevated but it's below NOAA alert thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Impressive M-flare going on around 2975 and 2984. Should produce a fantastic CME, but not towards Earth most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Impressive M-flare going on around 2975 and 2984. Should produce a fantastic CME, but not towards Earth most likely. yeah, this one is quite long duration compared to the last one! Also, Type II alert just went out. Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1127 Issue Time: 2022 Apr 02 1403 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2022 Apr 02 1323 UTC Estimated Velocity: 956 km/s Right on the money about an impressive CME... strong coronal dimming event took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Proton flux is rising rapidly. Looks like we may hit a S1 radiation storm from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Impressive M-flare going on around 2975 and 2984. Should produce a fantastic CME, but not towards Earth most likely. Could we get a glancing blow from it? I looked at @Flareguy18's pic and the eit wave looks big. But it wont be a direct hit right? Just now, Calder said: Proton flux is rising rapidly. Looks like we may hit a S1 radiation storm from this. Absolutely correct! I do think its in a position where its more geoeffective for radiation storming ive read a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Could we get a glancing blow from it? I looked at @Flareguy18's pic and the eit wave looks big. But it wont be a direct hit right? Yeah, it shouldn't be direct considering it's near the limb now. I always want to wait for LASCO before saying for sure, but this one looks *potentially* big enough for glancing blow effects. I'd love a second opinion though, @Marcel de Bont any thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: Yeah, it shouldn't be direct considering it's near the limb now. I always want to wait for LASCO before saying for sure, but this one looks *potentially* big enough for glancing blow effects. I'd love a second opinion though, @Marcel de Bont Oh no the old Lasco Farse..🙃 this will take forever Shouldnt the region be out of earth strike zone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Stereo is showing the CME now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Oh no the old Lasco Farse..🙃 this will take forever Shouldnt the region be out of earth strike zone? In general, yes it is out of our strike zone, but I've seen limb CMEs sometimes deliver glancing blows. It wont be direct hit, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: In general, yes it is out of our strike zone, but I've seen limb CMEs sometimes deliver glancing blows. It wont be direct hit, though. Okay. I was just worried again ._. I sadly posted this in another topic but maybe @Orneno can move it to this one. I watched a small C-pop in one of the Earth-facing Sunspots and all of a sudden that triggered the M-Class flare. It was really awesome to watch in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 We also just crossed S1 (Minor) proton storm threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 The EIT waves seems to have gone to the middle of the disk on the equator so there might be a slight chance that we get a glancing blow from that CME. It's a bit sad that 2975 is rotating away over the limb very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 I looked on Twitter and I saw another S1 event has happened, and it also says that they happen about 50 times per cycle? We have already observed quite a few in just the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 1 minute ago, arjemma said: The EIT waves seems to have gone to the middle of the disk on the equator so there might be a slight chance that we get a glancing blow from that CME. It's a bit sad that 2975 is rotating away over the limb very soon. Im so new to EIT waves! Do they show the propagation of the Corona? Im wondering if Region 2975 was the origin source or the other one beside it Just now, LunarLights58 said: I looked on Twitter and I saw another S1 event has happened, and it also says that they happen about 50 times per cycle? We have already observed quite a few in just the last week. Yes i think 2. 2975 was a really bad player 😜 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Im so new to EIT waves! Do they show the propagation of the Corona? I'm fairly new to it as well but I have been reading some papers on it recently. As I understand it they do show the propagation of the corona and can also show connections between regions and chain reactions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Yes i think 2. 2975 was a really bad player This would be the third one this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: We also just crossed S1 (Minor) proton storm threshold. Did u see stereo a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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