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AR2975, M9 flare


Sam Warfel

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1 hour ago, Orneno said:

It does not appear to be even partly earth-directed. 

I'm not so sure. looking at the video on C3, it is around 180 degrees so a weak glancing blow may be possible. Shame it was not close to center disk as the CME looks fairly substantial.

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1 hour ago, Calder said:

A few frames of LASCO are in and it doesn’t appear to be earth directed.

 

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

It does not appear to be even partly earth-directed. 

 

Just now, Tristan said:

I'm not so sure. looking at the video on C3, it is around 180 degrees so a weak glancing blow may be possible. Shame it was not close to center disk as the CME looks fairly substantial.

Im confused now.. will it or will it not hit? And will it be something to worry about since the cme is a big one?

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2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

 

Im confused now.. will it or will it not hit? And will it be something to worry about since the cme is a big one?

I think it's really hard to tell if it will give us a glancing blow but if it would be, it's not anything to worry about. We won't take a direct hit ☺️

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

 

Im confused now.. will it or will it not hit? And will it be something to worry about since the cme is a big one?

Definitely nothing to worry about. It may or may not hit, but if it does it will be a weak glancing blow.

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7 minutes ago, Tristan said:

I'm not so sure. looking at the video on C3, it is around 180 degrees so a weak glancing blow may be possible. Shame it was not close to center disk as the CME looks fairly substantial.

I agree with this assessment. In the coronal dimming plot, it looked like the wave spread out pretty far, and I'm seeing a similar signature in C3. I'll give it a chance of a glancing blow. Nothing major, of course.

Btw, 2975 is just relentless! 

Flare.png

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Im confused now.. will it or will it not hit? And will it be something to worry about since the cme is a big one?

I was wrong, the CME is wider than expected, and could deliver a glancing blow, even though it’s on the the limb. Definitely nothing to worry about though. That wouldn’t be the case even in a head on impact. 

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