Growth of Cycle 25

[tniickck]

55 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

We should probably close out this thread now that SC25 has concluded its growth and is now in decline according to Patrick. Even Jan agrees with him. Also we have had 2 straight days of solar activity below C-flare threshold which must be proof that Patrick's equations are correct.

Is that a joke? a serious question

there are literally tons of things that tell us that solar maximum didn't happen yet with a 95% probability

and there was a lot of below-C activity in spring, especially in April

and Patrick's conclusion is wrong (my opinion) even if Jan agrees with it. you can check polar fields, avg sunspots latitude and so on to make sure solar max didn’t pass

Edited December 27, 2023 by tniickck

[Jay-B]

@tniickck yes I was joking. But also disappointed that the level of activity has decreased. Hopefully it is like that pause during fireworks before the grand finale.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Can't tell if serious or memeing

Poe's law at work again. My first reaction to it was a chuckle, so I surely hope it was meant that way (and judging from the post above that seems to be the case, phew).

Edited December 27, 2023 by Philalethes
phew

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Jay-B said:

Even Jan agrees with him.

I do not see any evidence to support that statement. 

Here is what he actually says on the solen website...,.

Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of December 7, 2023

Due to relatively low solar activity over the last couple of months, the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked has increased significantly. Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July depends on solar activity in December and early January 2024. If the average solar flux is less than 150 during this period, the first peak of solar cycle 25 using 365 day smoothing will likely be sometime between June 2 and July 9. Should the average solar flux instead become 140 then the peak date will be in early June (June 4 for solar flux, June 6 for STAR 2K SN, and June 7 for all the other sunspot numbers in the graph above). We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.

[hamateur 1953]

And welcome back Mike.   I have been checking ss latitudes as you may or may not know.  I actually was gonna do a run today but I would prefer at least ten on the board, and our sun just seems to be taking a short break.  Haha.  Later. Mike/Hagrid. 

12 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I do not see any evidence to support that statement. 

Here is what he actually says on the solen website...,.

Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of December 7, 2023

Due to relatively low solar activity over the last couple of months, the possibility that solar cycle 25 has already peaked has increased significantly. Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July depends on solar activity in December and early January 2024. If the average solar flux is less than 150 during this period, the first peak of solar cycle 25 using 365 day smoothing will likely be sometime between June 2 and July 9. Should the average solar flux instead become 140 then the peak date will be in early June (June 4 for solar flux, June 6 for STAR 2K SN, and June 7 for all the other sunspot numbers in the graph above). We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.

 

Just to clarify further.   I am in full agreement with @3gMike above.   
Unfortunately, while it was clear to me that @Jay-B was having a little fun at Patricks expense. I have an alternative suggestion that I hope might resolve some of the tension.  I personally am in favour of letting Patrick declare that Solar Max has passed when Jan Alvestad formally announces this to be a fact.  Respectfully, Mike/Hagrid 

Edited December 28, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Missing plural

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

5 uren geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

And welcome back Mike.   I have been checking ss latitudes as you may or may not know.  I actually was gonna do a run today but I would prefer at least ten on the board, and our sun just seem to be taking a short break.  Haha.  Later. Mike/Hagrid. 

 

Just to clarify further.   I am in full agreement with @3gMike above.   
Unfortunately, while it was clear to me that @Jay-B was having a little fun at Patricks expense. I have an alternative suggestion that I hope might resolve some of the tension.  I personally am in favour of letting Patrick declare that Solar Max has passed when Jan Alvestad formally announces this to be a fact.  Respectfully, Mike/Hagrid 

We found an indicator with the high resolution sunspots that is 100 % reliable to the day… let that sink in… 

conclusion: 13-month smoothed max is June 🤩

[hamateur 1953]

June 2024? Sounds plausible. If that is your final prognostication? Works for me, close enough.  Mike/Hagrid. 

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We found an indicator with the high resolution sunspots that is 100 % reliable to the day…

So that means you should be able to tell us what day, rather than just saying June !

[hamateur 1953]

Gee Mike, I missed that entirely!!  

6 hours ago, 3gMike said:

So that means you should be able to tell us what day, rather than just saying June !

Kudos!   Absolutely.  That is precisely what he indicated too.  Oh well, you caught his missive before Solar Max anyway.  Edit: Well I guess he has to consult further with his associates.  Jan, who definitely isn’t one as far as I am able to ascertain is due to post again in January and we will all be interested in what he has to say about last year, if anything more.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[tniickck]

the number of sunspots is now 192 (there has just been an update on sunspot groups info) so i bet this cycle is not done yet. we see a lot of groups coming from the limb and growing out of nowhere too

[arjemma]

@hamateur 1953 have you calculated the mean latitude recently? It does feel like the AR's are more concentrated to the equator now.

It's really hard to say when maximum will occur but I would guess it happens this year, and maybe in the first half of the year judging by how the AR's are located recently. I have hard to believe that maximum was reached last year judging on just the AR's location alone. Of course we can't be 100% sure this early (even though Patrick sounds like he is 100% sure). Time will tell. To me it does feel like we are rather close though.

[hamateur 1953]

20 minutes ago, arjemma said:

@hamateur 1953 have you calculated the mean latitude recently? It does feel like the AR's are more concentrated to the equator now.

It's really hard to say when maximum will occur but I would guess it happens this year, and maybe in the first half of the year judging by how the AR's are located recently. I have hard to believe that maximum was reached last year judging on just the AR's location alone. Of course we can't be 100% sure this early (even though Patrick sounds like he is 100% sure). Time will tell. To me it does feel like we are rather close though.

Yes I have calculated it.  Twice this year and we’re still well around  fifteen degrees average ( I admit highly speculative) as far as solar max.  Im instead now watching the average background 10.7 which can easily be seen to be steadily climbing over the last three months if you look at anyones chart. STAR or Jan Alvestad keeps very good records and nice that these are publicly available still.  I was looking for the average ss latitude to dip below about 13 degrees.  We are still two degrees above it presently. Nrc hasn’t posted their 18:00 utc flux this am yet!  Driving me crazy! Haha

Edited January 13 by hamateur 1953

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, arjemma said:

@hamateur 1953 have you calculated the mean latitude recently? It does feel like the AR's are more concentrated to the equator now.

It's really hard to say when maximum will occur but I would guess it happens this year, and maybe in the first half of the year judging by how the AR's are located recently. I have hard to believe that maximum was reached last year judging on just the AR's location alone. Of course we can't be 100% sure this early (even though Patrick sounds like he is 100% sure). Time will tell. To me it does feel like we are rather close though.

Some new data for consideration - a prediction from NASA https://www.nasa.gov/solar-cycle-progression-and-forecast/

[tniickck]

this SC26 prediction looks nice (even though it is extremely early to talk about) 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Some new data for consideration - a prediction from NASA https://www.nasa.gov/solar-cycle-progression-and-forecast/

Definitely some cool new forecasts, and I must say it does look like a fairly realistic SC25 prediction for the 50th percentile, but I'm rolling the die for the 95th for sure, heh.

The geomagnetic forecast is particularly interesting; I was aware geomagnetic activity tended to lag behind, but wouldn't have expected a peak as late as the beginning of 2027. I wonder to what extent that's tied to the prediction of the next cycle, since I see that part of the prediction is that activity will remain above the SC24-SC25 minimum even as we pass the next minimum.

[Drax Spacex]

The skewnesses looks about right.

[hamateur 1953]

Wow. I’m still laughing about the geomag prediction.  I also am impressed,  I think they’re being a little Stingy with our 10.7, was hoping more for around 250, but those “ steps down” sure remind me of SC 20. We all know how much fun that one was on the downslope!    I was going to also interject at least one common sense reason for greater geomagnetic activity past Solar Maximum.  The groups are typically riding closer to the equator no matter which hemisphere.  Giving them more time to develop.  And possibly interact with others.  I  have noted a general tendency for bigger ARs although most certainly fewer, past Solar Max. 

Edited January 14 by hamateur 1953

[hamateur 1953]

Cycle 26. 285 peak. .  Hmmm cycle 19?  Yep. Absolutely, although using old numbers you will find it only at 201 twelve month smoothed  Nobody can wait for this cycle to peak before predicting the next?    Well, we need more flux already, This next peak needs to be around 250-270 sfi or We may be disappointed  its heading there already…Some wishful thinking afoot??  Haha. Love it.  

Edited January 15 by hamateur 1953

[hamateur 1953]

On 1/13/2024 at 11:57 AM, arjemma said:

@hamateur 1953 have you calculated the mean latitude recently? It does feel like the AR's are more concentrated to the equator now.

It's really hard to say when maximum will occur but I would guess it happens this year, and maybe in the first half of the year judging by how the AR's are located recently. I have hard to believe that maximum was reached last year judging on just the AR's location alone. Of course we can't be 100% sure this early (even though Patrick sounds like he is 100% sure). Time will tell. To me it does feel like we are rather close though.

Hi @arjemma Currently we are averaging 17.25 degrees above Solar equator.* Nearly where we were last year, although with flux rising as it has, we should be seeing the ss latitudes drop before May I would imagine.  

* total Ars north. Five  avg 15.8 deg  

total Ars south seven. Avg 18.7 deg

I realise that some may believe I see a direct connection between sunspot latitudes and 10.7 solar radio flux.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It is quite possible for there to be high SFI with certain groups.  And at just about at any midpoint in any typical cycle.  Further confounding declaration of Solar Maximums.    So…. To further clarify, it is looking as though we should hit a nice peak 2024 May - June in accordance with what Jan Alvestad indicated as a possibility perhaps he isn’t expecting as high a peak as we are, but his charts indicate a steady climb thus far anyway.  

Edited January 15 by hamateur 1953
More stuff

[tniickck]

the SSN might hit the 200 threshold today. according to my calculations, it is 202 (including only the numbered groups), and if you count the group growing next to the 3555 and the new group on the limb, it will be 225

[hamateur 1953]

5 hours ago, tniickck said:

the SSN might hit the 200 threshold today. according to my calculations, it is 202 (including only the numbered groups), and if you count the group growing next to the 3555 and the new group on the limb, it will be 225

Yep. @tniickck you’re no doubt correct.  However check Solar Ham  the boulder numbers ( 183) nicely coincide perfectly with SFI (183).  This business of numbering sunspots was getting tedious anyway and after New Years Day the sun is only allowed one SFU per sunspot ( not counting flares of course).  It may exceed this number provided the other Active Regions aren’t pulling their weight. Hopefully this will settle any disputes.  Haha.  73.  Mike/Hagrid 

For any other Hams reading this, we just passed the June average SFI of 161 approximately and sit around 165 average thus far.  We hit 40 mhz yesterday maximum useable frequency. Across the states.   For about an hour.  Haven’t seen that personally since 1979. 

Edited January 15 by hamateur 1953
Wow

[hamateur 1953]

Well, about the time I REALLY want to see the current 131 SDO gets occulted.   Should have checked my horoscope!! Anyway, I WAS going to comment on the recent somewhat unexpectedly high sunspot developments, also including the recently wild AR likely to be numbered at 35-40 N and about twenty west.  It doesn’t seem to understand that it needed to be lower in hemispheric latitude.   It will be forgiven, should it decide to actually begin doing something entertaining.  Activity is definitely down for now.  Hopefully NRC is awake today for 18:00 UTC*.   report.  Sheesh!  Haha! Mike/ Hagrid  edit: I am assuming that it is  regrowth in a plage area otherwise I’d have expected a new number otherwise 3551 is quite aways back unless swpc erred somehow numbering it.  

*174 @ 18:00 UTC 

Edited January 17 by hamateur 1953
NRC first and 3551??

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I am assuming that it is  regrowth in a plage area otherwise I’d have expected a new number otherwise 3551 is quite aways back unless swpc erred somehow numbering it.  

AR 3551 has been recorded crossing the disk since last Saturday 13th, but it is not particularly active. There is another high latitude spot just showing up on the west limb. Comparing with photospheric fields I think this one might be a bit more active.

[hamateur 1953]

It was listed as a new spot was what caused my confusion @3gMike  Jan has something at an even higher latitude than 26 N on his main list, or did about eight hours ago.  Using his S prefix last two numbers were 19 if memory serves me…., S9319 @ 35 degrees N. 20 west.  Sounds about right……

32 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

AR 3551 has been recorded crossing the disk since last Saturday 13th, but it is not particularly active. There is another high latitude spot just showing up on the west limb. Comparing with photospheric fields I think this one might be a bit more active.

 

Edited January 17 by hamateur 1953
Clarity

[hamateur 1953]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:35 AM, tniickck said:

the SSN might hit the 200 threshold today. according to my calculations, it is 202 (including only the numbered groups), and if you count the group growing next to the 3555 and the new group on the limb, it will be 225

We are getting there @tniickckslowly perhaps.  Depends on whose numbers and frankly what UTC y’all are looking at also at what resolution! Haha. Jan Alvestad high res pegged over 300 if memory serves me correctly yesterday at 4am in Washington State usa. The incoming regions are giving me some hope that we will stay around 150 to 190  ISN  for the remainder of January 2024 or even higher.   Hams will also appreciate that USAF predicts high flux through February.  Activity is almost certain to improve by February as well.  Mike/Hagrid