Growth of Cycle 25

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 31/1/2024 om 08:49, hamateur 1953 zei:

Degrowth:   A verb implying use of external force to a situation to secure a desired reduction in size or output. There easily could be several forces simultaneously at play to secure the desired result.   
 
I am hoping Patrick doesn’t have an arsenal of 10.7 reducing minions at his disposal.   Haha. 
 

 
 

I asked the minions to become more active. However, they revolted. We want a pay rise!

what now😡🤔

[Maurizio Marsigli]

Cycle 26?

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Maurizio Marsigli said:

Cycle 26?

Possibly, but I doubt it. By my estimate it's at 35-38S, which isn't as far south as you'd expect the very first spots to appear at. Judging by the orientation I'd say it's more likely that it's a just slightly reversed region. You'd also typically expect the first SC26 spots to appear righter after maximum, which I personally strongly doubt has occurred yet. Can't rule it out though, it's definitely looking odd and at a high latitude, maybe it's a harbinger of an impending maximum.

Edited February 2 by Philalethes
clarity

[Newbie]

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I asked the minions to become more active. However, they revolted. We want a pay rise!

what now😡🤔

@hamateur 1953 @Patrick P.A. Geryl

 

On 1/31/2024 at 6:49 PM, hamateur 1953 said:

Degrowth:   A verb implying use of external force to a situation to secure a desired reduction in size or output. There easily could be several forces simultaneously at play to secure the desired result.   
 
I am hoping Patrick doesn’t have an arsenal of 10.7 reducing minions at his disposal.   Haha. 
 

 
 

Hahaha those minions belong to me you guys. Hands off!!

Signed: A concerned minion owner

-.

Edited February 2 by Newbie

[Lawn Boy]

The solar-terrestrial centre of excellence has released their update of cycle 25 https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking

[3gMike]

11 hours ago, Lawn Boy said:

The solar-terrestrial centre of excellence has released their update of cycle 25 https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking

Thanks for posting that. It has a lot of really interesting comparisons. Well worth reading.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

11 uren geleden, Lawn Boy zei:

The solar-terrestrial centre of excellence has released their update of cycle 25 https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking

I gave the minions there pay rise. Let’s see what happens 😊🤩

[hamateur 1953]

40 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I gave the minions there pay rise. Let’s see what happens 😊🤩

Sorry Patrick, they work for @Newbie  Therein doth their loyalty reside…..

[Newbie]

22 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Sorry Patrick, they work for @Newbie  Therein doth their loyalty reside…..

Hahaha ain’t that the truth!!

                       THE MINIONS

N.

Edited February 7 by Newbie

[hamateur 1953]

And it clearly is a conspiracy against solar activity, 10.7 solar flux and of course earth-directed CMEs.  With Patrick being  afraid of a second peak exceeding last june 2023 AND @Newbie conspiring against all three, I’m really out of luck now!! 

[Newbie]

3 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

And it clearly is a conspiracy against solar activity, 10.7 solar flux and of course earth-directed CMEs.  With Patrick being  afraid of a second peak exceeding last june 2023 AND @Newbie conspiring against all three, I’m really out of luck now!! 

Hmm! Wait a minute!

I have a feeling this isn’t going to end well. 
Crikey! I might get the blame for everything that goes wrong with SC25!

N.

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Thanks for posting that. It has a lot of really interesting comparisons. Well worth reading.

Sure was @3gMike  Interestingly they place solar max in sept-oct 2024 giving our sun a little more time to have fun.  Good news across the board ifya ask me!  

[hamateur 1953]

Edit:   Also, looking at it from the admittedly narrow perspective of us Hams, the downslopes of any typical cycle are more gradual in nature thus: overall longer elevated 10.7 and 30 cm emissions are probably a certainty for the next year, I should imagine. Mike/Hagrid 

[Lawn Boy]

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Thanks for posting that. It has a lot of really interesting comparisons. Well worth reading.

Mike, could you point out the comparisons that you’re speaking of.
Also I get a lot out of the explanations and assessments of each graph. But with my limited knowledge, I am get more from just the graph itself and the one that stands out to me the most is the AP index. I have noticed recently that the AP on Jan’s daily updated graph has been low for a while.

https://www.solen.info/solar/

[Philalethes]

37 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

I have noticed recently that the AP on Jan’s daily updated graph has been low for a while.

Not that uncommon around the solstices if there's no significant storming from CMEs due to the equinoctial and R-M (Russell-McPherron) effects; you'll see a similar lull around the June solstice on Jan's plot too. In contrast the equinoctes will tend to have more geomagnetic activity, which you can even see in the table under the plot on the STCE site, where every maximum value of each cycle listed was near either equinox, except for the SC22 one in June of 1991. We didn't get too much activity last equinox though, certainly hoping we'll get some more around the coming March equinox.

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Lawn Boy said:

Mike, could you point out the comparisons that you’re speaking of.
Also I get a lot out of the explanations and assessments of each graph. But with my limited knowledge, I am get more from just the graph itself and the one that stands out to me the most is the AP index. I have noticed recently that the AP on Jan’s daily updated graph has been low for a while.

https://www.solen.info/solar/

I was just meaning to indicate that the article compares the activity of a large number of different parameters with the activity in previous cycles. The main message seems to be that this cycle is unlikely to be very strong, but there is still a reasonable expectation that we have a way to go before it hits maximum.

The graphs are especially good because they allow you to get a feel for where the current cycle sits in comparison with the earlier cycles.

In respect of the Ap index it is clear that we probably have a couple more years before it will hit peak, assuming that it follows a similar trend to earlier cycles. Comparing the dates given for maximum Ap in the linked article with the sunspot cycles we can see that the Ap max generally occurs after the second sunspot peak and into the declining phase of the cycle. Also note that the AP minimum is not directly related to sunspot minimum.

[Jay-B]

On 2/7/2024 at 7:32 AM, hamateur 1953 said:

ood news across the board ifya ask me!

Sfu is up to 188 now! Almost to your coveted 200!

[hamateur 1953]

Yes.  And it looks like good old 3575 just shot us another M flare on its departure too!!  Haha 

21 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

Sfu is up to 188 now! Almost to your coveted 200!

 

I hadn’t read @3gMike  reply in entirety yet.  I’m in agreement with him as to where this cycle rates in comparison with previous cycles, placing it low to moderate without very high future expectations.  Nevertheless, I am hoping to see us hit 250 sfi at some point this cycle, probably won’t be a month long run but maybe….., haha. And the really cool stuff : CMEs etc still awaits us too.  

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

6 uren geleden, Jay-B zei:

Sfu is up to 188 now! Almost to your coveted 200!

I gave the minions another pay rise…. This should be the top!😡

[hamateur 1953]

Sorry Patrick.  Excluding sfu provided by flaring we will hit 200 sfI at least three more times and likely exceed it. Hopefully significantly.  Y’all may have paid em but they remain exclusively in the employ of Newbie. She  knows morse code now and may even become a radio amateur at some future date. And we aren’t supposed to covet anything anyway haha.  

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I gave the minions another pay rise…. This should be the top!😡

 

Edited February 9 by hamateur 1953

[hamateur 1953]

Why is my confidence high?  Pretty simple, really.  Cycle 20, arguably a weak cycle excepting spectacular events on the downslope discussed in other threads over the last two years, exceeded 200 sfi at least three times after solar maximum in 1968. With that said,  I’m not particularly concerned with our sun petering out anytime soon. Mike/Hagrid 

[tniickck]

the pay rise did work

[hamateur 1953]

On 2/9/2024 at 6:53 AM, tniickck said:

the pay rise did work

Got us a decent X class 1000 sfu and we are still in m class two hours later. Bravo.  Btw. Protons coming in I see so polar cap absorbtion a definite now.      And on an edit:  SFI was 194  today.  Possibly will crack 200 again Sunday.  Time will tell. 

Edited February 11 by hamateur 1953
SFI above 188 haha.

[Philalethes]

Just thought I'd share this cool animation of flares so far this cycle that I saw on X:

 

 

Edited February 12 by Philalethes
proper embedding

[hamateur 1953]

We should be seeing a nice lineup of ARs pretty soon @Philalethes  Cute and it was considerate of Elon to name his platform after our favorite flare event even if he messes up our astronomical observations with aluminium clouds… 🤣🤣