Growth of Cycle 25

[Jesterface23]

9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The SC25 solar max may already be in the past as the 365-day smoothed solar flux peaked on June 27, 2023. Should solar activity in March and April 2024 be relatively high that peak could move to November 2023.

Mathematically, November 2023 is final possibility of a new solar maximum candidate in the coming months. That is what he is talking about. It isn't a full override of Jan's comment "It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.".

We just need to wait and see how things play out in the coming years.

[hamateur 1953]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Mathematically, November 2023 is final possibility of a new solar maximum candidate in the coming months. That is what he is talking about. It isn't a full override of Jan's comment "It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025.".

We just need to wait and see how things play out in the coming years.

Amen. 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 7/3/2024 om 19:24, hamateur 1953 zei:

Amen. 

For your arguments that the maximum is still coming... My 5 indicators say it has happened. Sorry...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377064732_Calculating_the_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_Using_365-day_Smoothing

[hamateur 1953]

Dearest Patrick, This is perhaps your fourth declaration of Solar Max passing. The first in January 2023. 
Why are most of us unconcerned with these declarations?  Science and Historical data.  Sunspot latitude averages at Solar Maximum and SFI   Particularly latitudes. None of these have been met yet.  Not to throw cold water on you again, eventually you will be proven correct.   Mike and Hagrid. ❤️

[Newbie]

💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕

spreading the love on the thread

💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕

N.

Edited March 10 by Newbie

[hamateur 1953]

36 minutes ago, Kayla Bisson said:

What do we win when we guess right? I'm going big Feb 2025 or bust

Infamy!   Haha Btw I caused a lot of trouble a few years back.  We probably shouldn’t even consider going there again @Kayla Bisson Edit:   When we see all of the active regions hugging ( giving our solar equator the love it deserves)  It is pretty safe to say we are very near solar maximum.   Edit again. Solar Maximum is only determined in retrospect.  This awareness is very important as @Jesterface23 pointed out numerous times here.   A very important consideration when trying to make declarations. 

Edited March 10 by hamateur 1953
Giving our active regions love

[Lawn Boy]

Jan’s latest

Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of March 10, 2024

Solar activity saw a significant decrease during the latter half of February and the first part of March. While there is still a chance that there could be another and higher peak in October or November 2023, chances that June 2023 was solar max has increased. After November 2023 there is currently no other obvious candidate solar max month. Taking into account the state of the solar polar fields another major peak during SC25 is becoming less likely.

[Jesterface23]

Yep, so far this month isn't doing too well on sunspot numbers. There is no way around it, we likely would see a sunspot number decline before a second peak. The exact strength of the second peak to come in the next year or two, no one knows.

[hamateur 1953]

Well. Perhaps true,   Gentlemen.  I was thinking the same thing tbh.  Especially as we had a low-latitude group on our side during an episode of high activity in January again.   However,  I believe this is an important consideration, this was followed by a series of much higher latitude Active Regions.  We all will just have to wait and see what our sun is really up to down the road.   I will certainly concede, it doesn’t look particularly good right now but this summer is likely to provide a surprise.   Only time will tell for certain.  Mike   
Historically speaking these “ pauses” in activity and worry in the amateur radio community are not unusual btw.   We learned long ago that it is typical of the sun to frustrate nearly every attempt to figure out what it was up to.  One more thing on an entirely non-scientific basis:  I feel it owes the USA a series of geomagnetic storms if not 200 plus SFI.  I think we all can agree on this fact alone, well maybe not all of us, but the majority reading this I am fairly sure 😆

Edited March 12 by hamateur 1953
Humour and spelling.

[3gMike]

On 3/9/2024 at 2:54 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

For your arguments that the maximum is still coming... My 5 indicators say it has happened. Sorry...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377064732_Calculating_the_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_Using_365-day_Smoothing

Patrick, Your document makes reference to predictions based on measurements at 120, 184, 240 days after minimum, then after 550 days, but it gives no indication of how these measurements relate to your assertion that you can then predict maximum amplitude and place it at a given date. The tables you present relating to factor between smoothed 10.7cm flux and SSN only allow you to make a hindcast in November. You seem to assume that this is maximum just because the factor is close to that observed for maximum in Cycle 24. Have you checked it for other cycles? Looking at a comparison of cycles 23, 24 and 25 to date it seems reasonable to assume that we may see a dip for the next few months, followed by a second peak.

What makes you so certain that we have already passed maximum ?

Edited March 12 by 3gMike
Added detail re 10.7cm / SSN factor.

[hamateur 1953]

Not only reasonable, but very likely.  See below. 

Edited March 12 by hamateur 1953

[hamateur 1953]

11 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Patrick, Your document makes reference to predictions based on measurements at 120, 184, 240 days after minimum, then after 550 days, but it gives no indication of how these measurements relate to your assertion that you can then predict maximum amplitude and place it at a given date. The tables you present relating to factor between smoothed 10.7cm flux and SSN only allow you to make a hindcast in November. You seem to assume that this is maximum just because the factor is close to that observed for maximum in Cycle 24. Have you checked it for other cycles? Looking at a comparison of cycles 23, 24 and 25 to date it seems reasonable to assume that we may see a dip for the next few months, followed by a second peak.

What makes you so certain that we have already passed maximum ?

I will only add here because I track 10.7 very closely that last November 2023 showed a surprising disparity in sunspots for the amount of delivered solar flux. 
And high latitude groups at that. Just my two centavos.   Mike. 

Edited March 12 by hamateur 1953
10.7 addendum

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

20 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Patrick, Your document makes reference to predictions based on measurements at 120, 184, 240 days after minimum, then after 550 days, but it gives no indication of how these measurements relate to your assertion that you can then predict maximum amplitude and place it at a given date. The tables you present relating to factor between smoothed 10.7cm flux and SSN only allow you to make a hindcast in November. You seem to assume that this is maximum just because the factor is close to that observed for maximum in Cycle 24. Have you checked it for other cycles? Looking at a comparison of cycles 23, 24 and 25 to date it seems reasonable to assume that we may see a dip for the next few months, followed by a second peak.

What makes you so certain that we have already passed maximum ?

For the newcomers:

1. I found the complete sunspot theory: it originates in the polar fields:

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

2. The 10.7 solar flux and the sunspots are created by the polar fields:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux

3. The only SSN that matters is the high resolution 2KSSN. From 1 and 2 we can conclude that if the factor is reached 10.7/2KSSN, solar maximum has been reached

4. I have new findings. It is possible to calculate the month from the maximum 1 year after the start with an accuracy of 2 months for all the cycles since 1947.

5. Here you can see I knew it in early August. Post on twitter:

Will the Daily Solar Flux reach a value of 250? Its possible but not likely. What is possible is the Average Solar Flux Values could plateau in the 175 to 185 while the Daily Flux numbers bounce around for a number of months

 

 

 

Patrick Geryl

 

@geryl_patr58828

·

Aug 8, 2023

 

Found a theory… in peer review… that says July 2023 is the maximum. Got the start of cycle 25 right…A formula for the start of a new sunspot cycle | SpringerLink

 

 

Edited March 13 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

For the newcomers:

1. I found the complete sunspot theory: it originates in the polar fields:

 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

2. The 10.7 solar flux and the sunspots are created by the polar fields:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux

3. The only SSN that matters is the high resolution 2KSSN. From 1 and 2 we can conclude that if the factor is reached 10.7/2KSSN, solar maximum has been reached

4. I have new findings. It is possible to calculate the month from the maximum 1 year after the start with an accuracy of 2 months for all the cycles since 1947.

5. Here you can see I knew it in early August. Post on twitter:

Will the Daily Solar Flux reach a value of 250? Its possible but not likely. What is possible is the Average Solar Flux Values could plateau in the 175 to 185 while the Daily Flux numbers bounce around for a number of months

 

 

 

Patrick Geryl

 

@geryl_patr58828

·

Aug 8, 2023

 

Found a theory… in peer review… that says July 2023 is the maximum. Got the start of cycle 25 right…A formula for the start of a new sunspot cycle | SpringerLink

 

 

Patrick, I think this type of discussion needs to take place in the Unproven Theories thread. I will start a new topic there.

[Newbie]

47 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Patrick, I think this type of discussion needs to take place in the Unproven Theories thread. I will start a new topic there.

Thank you @3gMike

It had crossed my mind!

N.

[libmar96]

Being rather as a follower of the thread, I keep seeing too much of division of people that I feel I want to clarify.

The maximum of solar cycle can be understood in two ways:

• using numbers, something shows the highest value (for SC25 we should add 'so far')
• maximum as just being more active than something we see between cycles (minima), where the timespan can be marked like a FWHM and the centered moment is treated a maximum

The maximum of solar cycle is a wide timespan of ups and downs, sometimes giving a hint of a double maximum. There's so many ways to say that we're not in minimum right now, but close to maximum. All of ways lead to a certain moment that can be mathematically shown. And all of these calculations will point out different dates. We're using predictions how past cycles were shown. SC25 had a quite good start, but the Sun became a little sleepy recently. We have only partial data of SC25, obviously because we'll have when SC26 starts to begin. And that's true, that via solar flux we already had the highest value that happened in 2023.

The graph posted by @3gMike clearly shows we still have a lot coming two years ahead. Past cycles show that the activity is not a smooth line with value peaks happening exactly between solar minima. SC23 clearly shows two peaks that are approximately in 2001 in 2003 and the centered line for FWHM would be around 2002. Does 2002 make a maximum? It depends what you have in your mind.

There's too much arguing about, page after page quite the same thing. And it probably leads to some kind of confusion. The solar flux is one of good indicators and should be treated as an activity peak value (that already happened in 2023). That's maximum value of SC25 (actually so far), not the maximum of SC25 - that's a difference. I actually don't know much about this indicator, but I guess it may go up again soon (especially that there were double maxima in cycles). Patrick here gives a point that "maximum has happened", not "maximum has passed". That what happened, is a number (float) that reached the highest value. So, anything coming forward is lower value. And quoting Patrick:

On 3/9/2024 at 3:54 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

For your arguments that the maximum is still coming... My 5 indicators say it has happened. Sorry...

It indeed the maximum value happened. But those sentences (just like all replies in this topic) indicate, that you want to say the SC25 maximum has passed. So, I correct your message:

Quote

For your arguments that the maximum is still coming... My 5 indicators using partial SC25 data show a peak has happened and recently what we have is a decline. We still don't know yet what will happen in years ahead, as from we know from older cycles, a lot of ups and downs happen. Let's wait patiently and come to conclusions in 2026-2027 when we have full data.

Most of people treat "solar cycle maximum" as the second explaination from the top (and I'm one of those). Because it's understandable how many different factors lead to different moments. You may have your peak in 2023, but most activity will happen still in 2023-2025. Don't expect activity from 2022 in 2024, because 2023 "was a peak and is in the center". But it could be also a quick rise and slow decline, if it actually was the highest value. But in general, when talking about maximum, we mean the FWHM thing, so it's 2024 (or 2023-2025) for us, so chill out

[hamateur 1953]

“ value peaks” is an intriguing term.  I kinda like it to be honest.  It will likely drive many astrophysicists nuts if we come up with a new term in “Elons” or something like that though.  The last CME was rated by SWPC as rating thirty eight Elons in SC 25.  😆. Later. Mike.  

I doubt that SFI will peak 250 too.  Would us hams be happy if it did? Unequivocally, but history says otherwise.     I was hoping someone would get that inside joke!! Haha. Obviously @Sam Warfel did.  Last year I think 38 starlink satellites fell prey to atmospheric friction caused by yes solar heating. 

Edited March 14 by hamateur 1953
Removed sarcasm.

[hamateur 1953]

Apologies to @Drax Spacex if he is intimately involved with the above issues.  A lot of pressure probably exists within Spacex.  Mike 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

We can start again the discussion (I already won off course)🤣..

Anyway... SN March =104.9

Place your bets when the new maximum will appear🤣😂🙃

 

Edited April 1 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[tniickck]

13 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We can start again the discussion (I already won off course)🤣..

Anyway... SSN March =104.9

Place your bets when the new maximum will appear🤣😂🙃

 

nuh uh

[hamateur 1953]

post removed by originator!   Wrong area. 

Edited April 1 by hamateur 1953
Belongs in UPT

[Lawn Boy]

Ham’ster I don’t think it was the wrong area. I think you said something you thought better of later. It’s OK we’re all human, well except for Pat.

Pat, I just want you to know that I’m still rooting for you if you’re right. If you’re wrong, not so much. Guess we’ll find out in a year or so.

[hamateur 1953]

33 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

Ham’ster I don’t think it was the wrong area. I think you said something you thought better of later. It’s OK we’re all human, well except for Pat.

Pat, I just want you to know that I’m still rooting for you if you’re right. If you’re wrong, not so much. Guess we’ll find out in a year or so.

@Lawn Boy you are absolutely correct.  I am too spontaneous sometimes.  Mike.   Btw I don’t object to the Hamster moniker. Kinda cute 

Edited April 2 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 7/3/2024 om 09:43, Newbie zei:

Dear Paddy 😊

The statement about already passing the solar maximum is based on the observation that the 365-day smoothed solar flux peaked on June 27, 2023, and the suggestion that if solar activity in March and April 2024 is relatively high, the peak could move to November 2023. 
Now should solar activity increase in June and July of this year (2024) where does that leave the new peak?

Are you saying both polar fields have flipped permanently? Really?

Interpreting solar cycle maxima involves various indicators, and smoothed solar flux is one of them.
While the smoothed solar flux is a valuable metric, considering sunspot observations is equally crucial in solar cycle assessments. Sunspots directly reflect the Sun's magnetic activity and their characteristics contribute significantly to determining the solar cycle’s progression. It is therefore best practice to consider multiple factors when determining the solar cycle's maximum. Solar activity can be complex and dynamic, and conclusions about solar maxima are typically made retrospectively with a comprehensive analysis of various solar parameters.

If the statement is based on a single metric, it's essential to approach such predictions with caution and await a more thorough analysis of solar activity trends over time. Scientists often use a combination of indicators, including sunspot numbers, solar irradiance, and magnetic field data, to provide a comprehensive assessment of solar cycle characteristics. You already know all this Paddy at least you are talking in maybes now and not definitives.

N.

 

Milady,

I employ various factors to determine solar maximum. Previously, organizations such as NASA and SWPC were inaccurate in their predictions for solar minimum. However, my calculations have proven to be correct, and I utilize the same theory to estimate solar maximum.

Furthermore, I rely on the sunspot theory that I have developed, which indicates that solar maximum has already passed. I was able to predict last year in January that that would be when the average polar field flips... and that was in May 2023! 1 month wrong...

In summary, I made the prediction for solar maximum back in January of last year. Unfortunately, the moderators removed my forecast for sunspots as it was deemed an extraordinary prediction.

At that time the prediction for the strength was wrong because I used a wrong number in my calculations. That fault was later corrected during peer review. The end result of the calculations you already know...

Edited April 2 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Milady,

I employ various factors to determine solar maximum. Previously, organizations such as NASA and SWPC were inaccurate in their predictions for solar minimum. However, my calculations have proven to be correct, and I utilize the same theory to estimate solar maximum.

Furthermore, I rely on the sunspot theory that I have developed, which indicates that solar maximum has already passed. I was able to predict last year in January that that would be when the average polar field flips... and that was in May 2023! 1 month wrong...

In summary, I made the prediction for solar maximum back in January of last year. Unfortunately, the moderators removed my forecast for sunspots as it was deemed an extraordinary prediction.

At that time the prediction for the strength was wrong because I used a wrong number in my calculations. That fault was later corrected during peer review. The end result of the calculations you already know...

Dear Patrick, Sir, scientific method is built on trial, error, refinement of results and retesting. It is commendable that you were able to rectify any inaccuracies in your calculations through peer review. I therefore look forward to seeing your research published.

N.