Growth of Cycle 25

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Just thought I'd share this cool animation of flares so far this cycle that I saw on X:

 

 

A really nice animation. It does emphasis once again the propensity for X flares to fire off close to the limb (both East and West).

[tniickck]

dayum @hamateur 1953we just hit 208 sfi

[hamateur 1953]

49 minutes ago, tniickck said:

dayum @hamateur 1953we just hit 208 sfi

Yep!! Actually 209 at 18:00 utc.  Outter likes already @tniickck  earmark ya one fer later guy.   Haha 

[Sam Warfel]

18 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Just thought I'd share this cool animation of flares so far this cycle that I saw on X:

 

 

Thank you for sharing, that is very enjoyable to watch.  You can really see the latitudes shifting lower!

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 12/2/2024 om 23:44, hamateur 1953 zei:

Yep!! Actually 209 at 18:00 utc.  Outter likes already @tniickck  earmark ya one fer later guy.   Haha 

It is 55 points down now…. More downward acceleration to come?

[tniickck]

3 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It is 55 points down now…. More downward acceleration to come?

how did you even come to this conclusion😁😁😁

[Philalethes]

14 minutes ago, tniickck said:

how did you even come to this conclusion😁😁😁

Today's current estimate of the SN is 41, so that means we're very close to minimum; because as you know, all that matters is today, context is irrelevant!

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It is 55 points down now…. More downward acceleration to come?

In reality though, it's expected to go down for a little bit, then go back up from our view of the Sun in the sort of mini cycles.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Lots off X-flare activity... If you look at the 4 previous cycles... This happens after the maximum!

For the odd cycles... 

 

21 yes

22

23 yes

24

25... ?

https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking#flares

 

Edited February 23 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

24 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Lots off X-flare activity... If you look at the 4 previous cycles... This happens after the maximum!

Woo. If we are getting all of these X-Class flare now, the next year and a half will be chaotically great.

[hamateur 1953]

I would most certainly agree @Jesterface23  Especially because I only learned yesterday from @3gMike that Jan was correct in his assessment that the southern region had indeed “ flipped” as it is commonly said when a pole changes polarity ( I have truly lost count at this point!) as to how many times the north  has done this at four.  The Northern pole has yet to complete the reversal that will actually signify Solar Maximum.  Meaning of course that @Jesterface23 is absolutely correct.  All that remains at this point it seems to me is how high will it go and for how long a duration?  Presently, it appears very good. Our last flux dip wasn’t even below 150 sfu!! Excellent. And even with only a couple of spots visible we are still pushing 180 sfi.  Heading soon for 200 plus it seems to me.  All solar cycles wax and wane, Jan Alvestad has a great set of historical triple charts which I enjoy reviewing at Solen. It’s a shame he hasn’t run those charts back a bit further but the last five give us a very good idea of what we can expect from any given cycle these days indeed. And although imo this isn’t any cycle 19 it sure isn’t any cycle 24 either! Us radio amateurs especially the younger folk among us were pleasantly surprised at 10 meters this year!  More fun after solar maximum finally peaks between May 2024 and December 2024. Perhaps a bit later, depending on unknown factors.  Sounds good to me. And then at least two more years on the downslope as can be seen in any of Jans charts simply by checking the A index blue mountains. Haha. 

Edited February 24 by hamateur 1953
Error. In flipping of poles.

[tniickck]

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Lots off X-flare activity... If you look at the 4 previous cycles... This happens after the maximum!

lmaoo

[Jay-B]

Now that February is in the books, I wonder if the solar max candidate has moved past June 2023?

[Drax Spacex]

The June 2023 value is still the peak, but it's more like a local upward wiggle.  The values of last 6 months of the 13-month smoothed sunspot number have ranged from 121.1 to 125.2, the most recent value being 124.0.

Edited March 1 by Drax Spacex
most recent

[hamateur 1953]

http://www.solen.info/solar/   Jan Alvestad on his STAR site gives last June a very poor chance of being the final Solar Maximum.  @Jay-B you should check his site out if you haven’t yet.  

Edited March 1 by hamateur 1953
Added link

[Jesterface23]

If the next two months hit a monthly smoothed number of 119.8, October 2023 would become a new maximum for the cycle.

Probably won't happen, but if March get a number of 138, then September 2023 will be the new maximum for the cycle.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

16 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

If the next two months hit a monthly smoothed number of 119.8, October 2023 would become a new maximum for the cycle.

Probably won't happen, but if March get a number of 138, then September 2023 will be the new maximum for the cycle.

Hinode will watch the southern polar field next week. If it measures a flip, it will be the deathblow for the maximum enthusiasts🤔📡😉😱

33 minuten geleden, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

Hinode will watch the southern polar field next week. If it measures a flip, it will be the deathblow for the maximum enthusiasts🤔📡😉😱

https://x.com/halocme/status/1763794249706057824?s=20

Edited March 2 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Hinode will watch the southern polar field next week. If it measures a flip, it will be the deathblow for the maximum enthusiasts🤔📡😉😱

2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Hinode will watch the southern polar field next week. If it measures a flip, it will be the deathblow for the maximum enthusiasts🤔📡😉😱

https://x.com/halocme/status/1763794249706057824?s=20

Well, we would both be enthusiasts, so I'm not sure how that works.

Given you are taking the word of Halo CME, they said "Solar maximum is approaching". Not that it has passed.

We still have well over a year to see how things play out.

[Ingolf]

Just another question to understand this all. I read all information I found to make my own conclusions about the solar max.

When I take a look to the butterfly diagrams it's pretty clear that we have not reached the maximum yet, that's what the diagrams are saying. 

But where is the uncertainty coming from? The butterfly diagram was always reliable. Why not in this cycle? 

 

Edit: 

And why are the sunspot numbers of the cycle take so long to get official? Why is it not monthly updated? 

Edited March 2 by Ingolf

[Archmonoth]

41 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Just another question to understand this all. I read all information I found to make my own conclusions about the solar max.

When I take a look to the butterfly diagrams it's pretty clear that we have not reached the maximum yet, that's what the diagrams are saying. 

But where is the uncertainty coming from? The butterfly diagram was always reliable. Why not in this cycle? 

 

Edit: 

And why are the sunspot numbers of the cycle take so long to get official? Why is it not monthly updated? 

 

Certainty from past information is a measurement of frequency. Certainty from understanding the underlining mechanics reveals more about the system the Sun is a part of. (Some certainty, not absolute)

 

You aren't wrong, but only looking at the pattern is a dead end, especially when we want to know how the pattern is formed. Internal dynamics? Some larger system reaction? So, we model what we think and make predictions, if we are incorrect, the reason seems worth exploring to make a more accurate model, other than a pattern. 

 

My guess on this cycle is that it will have a similar SSN and activity to SC 23 because of where the Sun's radius is in relation to the barycenter of the solar system. I think the conservation of momentum needs to work more when the barycenter is outside the Sun's radius. The momentum of turning around the barycenter is expressed/worked through plasma turbulence, with about a 2-year lag. There is a tested 2-year lag between changes in angular momentum in the solar system. Anyways this is only my guess on it, and there is a thread on it here in this forum, if you want the link. 

 

 

[Ingolf]

1 hour ago, Archmonoth said:

 

Certainty from past information is a measurement of frequency. Certainty from understanding the underlining mechanics reveals more about the system the Sun is a part of. (Some certainty, not absolute)

 

You aren't wrong, but only looking at the pattern is a dead end, especially when we want to know how the pattern is formed. Internal dynamics? Some larger system reaction? So, we model what we think and make predictions, if we are incorrect, the reason seems worth exploring to make a more accurate model, other than a pattern. 

 

My guess on this cycle is that it will have a similar SSN and activity to SC 23 because of where the Sun's radius is in relation to the barycenter of the solar system. I think the conservation of momentum needs to work more when the barycenter is outside the Sun's radius. The momentum of turning around the barycenter is expressed/worked through plasma turbulence, with about a 2-year lag. There is a tested 2-year lag between changes in angular momentum in the solar system. Anyways this is only my guess on it, and there is a thread on it here in this forum, if you want the link. 

 

Yes I would like to read about it, in which thread is it? Thanks a lot 🙋‍♂️

 

[Drax Spacex]

8 hours ago, Ingolf said:

And why are the sunspot numbers of the cycle take so long to get official? Why is it not monthly updated? 

Monthly mean sunspot numbers are available at the end of each month.  They are used to calculate the (13-month) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number.  The smoothed monthly mean sunspot number is used for finding the solar cycle min and max.  The smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for a given month requires 6 months of monthly mean sunspot numbers before and after.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/faq6

Edited March 3 by Drax Spacex

[hamateur 1953]

Awhile back perhaps in another thread, I don’t recall right now, but I think it was @Philalethes who was discussing where we were with the most recent polar field data.  It might have been  @3gMike too.   Since we are entering a lull in activity for the present time, I was curious if anyone has been looking into these figures recently.  Tnx. Mike. 

[3gMike]

23 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Awhile back perhaps in another thread, I don’t recall right now, but I think it was @Philalethes who was discussing where we were with the most recent polar field data.  It might have been  @3gMike too.   Since we are entering a lull in activity for the present time, I was curious if anyone has been looking into these figures recently.  Tnx. Mike. 

WSO have been having some problems recently, so there is some missing data, but this plot gives an idea of how things are progressing.

Based on filtered values, which remove geometric variations, the southern field has clearly reversed and is heading positive at a fairly steady rate. Meanwhile the northern field is dithering around close to zero and has still to make final reversal.

[hamateur 1953]

1 minute ago, 3gMike said:

WSO have been having some problems recently, so there is some missing data, but this plot gives an idea of how things are progressing.

Based on filtered values, which remove geometric variations, the southern field has clearly reversed and is heading positive at a fairly steady rate. Meanwhile the northern field is dithering around close to zero and has still to make final reversal.

Thanks @3gMike  That’s definitely good news as far as the future evolution of this cycle goes.  Appreciate you posting this!   Mike.