Growth of Cycle 25

[hamateur 1953]

It is sustained high-level activity that us hams really wanna see.  According to Newbie the TCI hasn’t budged. But I think it lags a bit, ( remembers shock at seeing it lead without checking A index first for sept 1957!).  Haha. 

8 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Heh, they measured the flux during the flare I see. I guess this is one of the moments where you could possibly make a case for Jan's personal adjustments for flares, but in the long run even events like that should even out. After all, trying to somehow exclude that flare in terms of the effect of the flux on the atmosphere would be even more wrong in many ways.

 

[LunarLights58]

On 12/11/2023 at 7:02 PM, Drax Spacex said:

 Where are the X flares?

Sun: Here you go, an X2.8

What I find interesting is how active the Sun actually has been this year. It's far from a quiet solar cycle.

Look at all of these M-class flares

[Marcel de Bont]

6 minuten geleden, Carrington45X zei:

How far down in the United States could the resulting Auroras (if any) of this X2.8 flare go? 

Welcome. This isn't really the correct topic for your question just so you know for the future but I will answer your question anyway. G1 to at most G2 storm conditions are expected so the northern most United States during local night time. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-kp-index.html

[Carrington45X]

Just now, Marcel de Bont said:

Welcome. This isn't really the correct topic for your question just so you know for the future but I will answer your question anyway. G1 to at most G2 storm conditions are expected so the northern most United States during local night time.

Oh ok. Sorry 'bout that. Thanks for the info! Will try to stay on topic in the future.

[Marcel de Bont]

1 minuut geleden, Carrington45X zei:

Oh ok. Sorry 'bout that. Thanks for the info! Will try to stay on topic in the future.

I changed my mind and moved your post to a new topic, haha. Sorry. Maybe more people will chime in there if there are any more questions. Welcome to the forums! 

 

[LunarLights58]

The X2.87 flare is now going to be on SpaceWeatherLive's top 50 solar flares page as the 43rd strongest.

[Solarflaretracker200]

On 12/14/2023 at 10:04 AM, Philalethes said:

Well, there's the X-flare, right on cue.

Man, I need to get online more xd

[Solar_Marcel]

29 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Man, I need to get online more xd

I also missed it and when i checked, it already was over lol

 

2 hours ago, LunarLights58 said:

Sun: Here you go, an X2.8

What I find interesting is how active the Sun actually has been this year. It's far from a quiet solar cycle.

Look at all of these M-class flares

Well i guess Patrick cant argue with clear measured data can he? Well, good to see the Flare-Numbers climbing i guess. But as always: Time will tell us for sure

((((Maybe as a Christmas Wish: a X10 Flare? Sun, can u du that??)))) 

Last time i wanted an X flare i now got one, sooo maayyybe it works again

Yk xD

Edited December 15, 2023 by Solar_Marcel
Typoo

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 hour ago, Solar_Marcel said:

I also missed it and when i checked, it already was over lol

I just missed it entirely xd

 

1 hour ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Last time i wanted an X flare i now got one, sooo maayyybe it works again

I'll make sure to be online then lol

[hamateur 1953]

Back to the growth of cycle 25 after yesterday’s excitement.  I have been thinking a lot about sunspot latitudes butterfly diagrams and cycle evolution over the past couple of days.  Earlier this month I was fortunate on Dec 1 to have a large sample size of 11 I think it was and it came out to roughly a fifteen degree latitude average. So I took last July 7 which I think was the present sunspot high and it came out to 20 degrees roughly.  Also with a nice sample size of eleven ARs.  What I am unsure of at present is whether the second peak latitudes are within the typical 9-11 degree range.  I’m pretty sure there are others that study this subject at a far deeper level than just us radio amateurs.   I intend to continue doing this until we have definitely passed the peak for this cycle regardless, at about 27 day intervals.  Should be interesting to see what plays out.  Edit:   I decided in the interest of fairness to all to pull the archive for last January 15 which was the day we hit 234 officially solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. We had ten ARs on the board at the time, again a nice sample size.  Northern latitudes were avg 19.25 And Southern were avg 16.3  giving 17.75 average   Of note this was a particularly active period last year with multiple M flares and C flares contributing to the baseline flux   

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Update.

[Philalethes]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:58 AM, hamateur 1953 said:

Back to the growth of cycle 25 after yesterday’s excitement.  I have been thinking a lot about sunspot latitudes butterfly diagrams and cycle evolution over the past couple of days.  Earlier this month I was fortunate on Dec 1 to have a large sample size of 11 I think it was and it came out to roughly a fifteen degree latitude average. So I took last July 7 which I think was the present sunspot high and it came out to 20 degrees roughly.  Also with a nice sample size of eleven ARs.  What I am unsure of at present is whether the second peak latitudes are within the typical 9-11 degree range.  I’m pretty sure there are others that study this subject at a far deeper level than just us radio amateurs.   I intend to continue doing this until we have definitely passed the peak for this cycle regardless, at about 27 day intervals.  Should be interesting to see what plays out.  Edit:   I decided in the interest of fairness to all to pull the archive for last January 15 which was the day we hit 234 officially solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. We had ten ARs on the board at the time, again a nice sample size.  Northern latitudes were avg 19.25 And Southern were avg 16.3  giving 17.75 average   Of note this was a particularly active period last year with multiple M flares and C flares contributing to the baseline flux

Yeah, from where spots are appearing in general it seems like the average latitude is definitely still some ways from maximum. Current region 3527 is a bit interesting though, as it's so close to the equator, but I guess there will be such outliers when the cycle is approaching maximum.

[hamateur 1953]

Yes.  True @Philalethesthere are typically outliers etc Anti-Hale etc. To cause some random errors.  We are also in agreement that removing high level flares from any study causes problems only when looking at the cycle as a whole.  It all washes out, so to speak. Either way, it probably makes little difference.  Predicting the time of Solar Max even when this close just isn’t that easy for a casual observer as myself.   This method seemed to me to offer the best chance of getting closest.  What do y’all think?   Later, Mike/Hagrid  

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Yeah, from where spots are appearing in general it seems like the average latitude is definitely still some ways from maximum. Current region 3527 is a bit interesting though, as it's so close to the equator, but I guess there will be such outliers when the cycle is approaching maximum.

Incidentally, I’ve yet to hear back from Phil @KW2P. I hope he is ok.   He is a busy guy and right now likely busy with other things more concerning than spanning our continent on 50 mhz during high solar flux. Haha. Later.   Btw. I was off a few days this July and am aware of it.  However it was the overall latitudes I was concerned with anyway and decided to let things be.  

Edited December 18, 2023 by hamateur 1953
CQ contest. Spelling

[arjemma]

7 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Yeah, from where spots are appearing in general it seems like the average latitude is definitely still some ways from maximum. Current region 3527 is a bit interesting though, as it's so close to the equator, but I guess there will be such outliers when the cycle is approaching maximum.

I completely agree. Although we have had some AR's with lower latitudes it does seem like the average are above the 10'th latitude as of now. Like you suspect it is common for AR's to emerge close to the equator during the rise to solar maximum even if the maximum is months away. It's the average that is important, and especially when looking back and studying the cycle in the future.

It's for sure interesting that we have more and more AR's that emerge so close to the equator. I think the rush to the poles is less than a year away at least.

[tniickck]

@hamateur 1953 we eventually got 195 SFI close to Christmas as you wished. thanks Santa! 🎅

[hamateur 1953]

We actually may hit 200 tomorrow haha. Thanks @tniickck   Mike/Hagrid 

49 minutes ago, tniickck said:

@hamateur 1953 we eventually got 195 SFI close to Christmas as you wished. thanks Santa! 🎅

 

[LunarLights58]

The Sun has been able to dip below C level X-ray flux now at B9.8

[tniickck]

31 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

The Sun has been able to dip below C level X-ray flux now at B9.8

we are now probably getting into a small minimum after a rise in beginning-middle of Dec. it should last until beginning-middle of January, if no eventually grown noticeable sunspots will appear. 

[LunarLights58]

The last time X ray flux was this low was Thursday, 14 December 2023 00:48 UTC at B9.77 and then the same day, there was a X2.87.

[hamateur 1953]

Yes, I was hoping to see more activity on the incoming limb. We just lost 3519 which was a major contributor to solar activity and solar flux.  There will be much more coming our way next year, of this, I am now certain.  

[tniickck]

3 hours ago, LunarLights58 said:

The last time X ray flux was this low was Thursday, 14 December 2023 00:48 UTC at B9.77 and then the same day, there was a X2.87.

zero connections, actually) just a nice coincidence

[hamateur 1953]

True

26 minutes ago, tniickck said:

zero connections, actually) just a nice coincidence

I slept through this X unfortunately funny that just as @Drax Spacex

began wondering where the X classes were, the sun finally relents and gives us a decent one even if not earth directed. Haha. 

[Drax Spacex]

On 12/13/2023 at 12:45 AM, Jesterface23 said:

On the flip side of sunspot regions, I wonder what 'filament cycles' are like month by month compared to the sunspot numbers

The number of filaments, their pathlengths, and sinuosity could be quantified with image processing algorithms to yield filament metrics and compare them to sunspot numbers.  Increasing filament length and sinuosity (twistiness) seems to occur as the sun's magnetic field becomes more chaotic approaching solar maximim.

 

[hamateur 1953]

That’s a very logical supposition @Drax Spacex  Cool. 

5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

The number of filaments, their pathlengths, and sinuosity could be quantified with image processing algorithms to yield filament metrics and compare them to sunspot numbers.  Increasing filament length and sinuosity (twistiness) seems to occur as the sun's magnetic field becomes more chaotic approaching solar maximim.

 

 

[Jay-B]

We should probably close out this thread now that SC25 has concluded its growth and is now in decline according to Patrick. Even Jan agrees with him. Also we have had 2 straight days of solar activity below C-flare threshold which must be proof that Patrick's equations are correct.

[mozy]

43 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

We should probably close out this thread now that SC25 has concluded its growth and is now in decline according to Patrick. Even Jan agrees with him. Also we have had 2 straight days of solar activity below C-flare threshold which must be proof that Patrick's equations are correct.

Can't tell if serious or memeing