Growth of Cycle 25

[Philalethes]

Provisional SN for July is in: 159.1. Still quite impressive, and yet more evidence for SC25 being stronger than SC24, although that should be fairly obvious by now. This leaves the SSN for January at 113.3, only a few points below the SC24 high of 2014-04 at 116.4. This will be almost certainly be beaten next month, as even an SN of 100 for August will leave the SSN of February at 117.2, but by the looks of it we're seeing no sign of sunspot activity slowing down that much at all. To miss the SC24 maximum target the SN for August would have to drop down to 85, and even then it would have to stay there lest the target simply be hit in one of the subsequent months instead. Given how we're probably heading into maximum soon I don't really see that happening, but time will tell.

[hamateur 1953]

I know I am going to sound like a broken record here but more flux. More flux please!! Ok. Got that off my chest, back to science. As an aside, although it will likely mean that we don’t get over 250 sfi for six months straight, I hope Jan nails this one in November.  Edit. Date if not ssn. Naturally we hams want more sfi and id already ballparked max between may-july 2024 earlier and won’t retract this.  
And a second, even higher peak wouldn’t be unprecedented.  Hmmmm. Haha 

Edited August 3, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Speculation

[Drax Spacex]

8 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Provisional SN for July is in: 159.1. Still quite impressive, and yet more evidence for SC25 being stronger than SC24, although that should be fairly obvious by now. This leaves the SSN for January at 113.3, only a few points below the SC24 high of 2014-04 at 116.4. This will be almost certainly be beaten next month, as even an SN of 100 for August will leave the SSN of February at 117.2, but by the looks of it we're seeing no sign of sunspot activity slowing down that much at all. To miss the SC24 maximum target the SN for August would have to drop down to 85, and even then it would have to stay there lest the target simply be hit in one of the subsequent months instead. Given how we're probably heading into maximum soon I don't really see that happening, but time will tell.

Yes, very likely SC25 maximum SSN will soon officially exceed that of SC24.  Many are eager to check that box, as it has been widely predicted.  As for the ultimate SC25 maximum SSN, beware the curse of the double peak dip!  That could "pump the brakes" on SC25 by including some low monthly SN data points within the 13-month SSN window near maximum.  

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Drax Spacex
double "peak" dip

[hamateur 1953]

https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracki.   Yes, true indeed. Apparently there is only one cycle that had a second higher peak anyway, although I thought there were more for some reason.   Since we are discussing SC 25 here, I was trying to find the current butterfly of SC 25.  If y’all know where it’s publicly posted, id appreciate it!! Tnx. Mike/ Hagrid 

Edited August 3, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Added link above credit: Newbie.

[3gMike]

9 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I know I am going to sound like a broken record here but more flux. More flux please!! Ok. Got that off my chest, back to science. As an aside, although it will likely mean that we don’t get over 250 sfi for six months straight, I hope Jan nails this one in November.  Edit. Date if not ssn. Naturally we hams want more sfi and id already ballparked max between may-july 2024 earlier and won’t retract this.  
And a second, even higher peak wouldn’t be unprecedented.  Hmmmm. Haha 

Some encouragement Mike. According to data on Solen website the 1 year averaged sfi already exceeds the peak of Cycle 24 at 150.42 vs 145.5. It can only get better 😁

[libmar96]

In July 2023, there were 25 days out of 31 days with at least one M1+ flare. There were almost 28 days, because in three more days there were C9+ flares as the strongest. This is the largest in this century; in SC23 these were just stronger flares...

Edited August 3, 2023 by libmar96

[3gMike]

7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracki.   Yes, true indeed. Apparently there is only one cycle that had a second higher peak anyway, although I thought there were more for some reason.   Since we are discussing SC 25 here, I was trying to find the current butterfly of SC 25.  If y’all know where it’s publicly posted, id appreciate it!! Tnx. Mike/ Hagrid 

It's here  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html

[Philalethes]

While it's calm right now, overall the flux has kept rising recently, thought I'd provide an update on the development at this critical juncture. Here's what the fluxes for the most relevant cycles (at least in my opinion) look like now:

Interestingly, for the time being SC25 seems to have moved past SC20 and keeps following a trajectory more like that of SC23; in fact, it's almost even close to matching it. Hard to say whether this is due to SC25 heading towards more synchronized peaks or differences between the flux minima and more fundamental underlying mechanisms, or something else entirely (or any combination thereof), but it's certainly an interesting development.

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

While it's calm right now, overall the flux has kept rising recently, thought I'd provide an update on the development at this critical juncture. Here's what the fluxes for the most relevant cycles (at least in my opinion) look like now:

Interestingly, for the time being SC25 seems to have moved past SC20 and keeps following a trajectory more like that of SC23; in fact, it's almost even close to matching it. Hard to say whether this is due to SC25 heading towards more synchronized peaks or differences between the flux minima and more fundamental underlying mechanisms, or something else entirely (or any combination thereof), but it's certainly an interesting development.

Definitely interesting. Comparing smoothed sunspot number gives a quite different impression - currently SC25 sits closer to SC24 than SC 20.

[Philalethes]

51 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Definitely interesting. Comparing smoothed sunspot number gives a quite different impression - currently SC25 sits closer to SC24 than SC 20.

Yep, definitely closer to SC24 than SC20, let alone SC23 (but also admittedly comfortably above SC24). Apparently there's something about the activity of SC25 that is yielding higher flux at lower SNs, might also be related to why we've seen a higher amount of flares relative to the SN as shown on the Solar cycle page here on SWL, especially a lot more C-flares (which checks out with essentially staying at a higher background flux in general).

Reminds me of what I went through here and here, which also corroborates the fact that we're currently seeing higher flux than expected from a given SN, whatever the reason might be. It could very well be that Patrick is correct about his original assessment that this has to do with the presence of more very small spots this cycle, but I would certainly still disagree that it would be an indication of lower activity, as it seems to me the opposite is the case.

As always I'll be eagerly awaiting what SC25 might have in store for us over the coming years.

[hamateur 1953]

Absolutely true @Philalethesit seems with regard to comparing ssn and 10.7.   Very unusual especially  if expressed as a ratio using surface area alone.  Well beyond my capabilities, but seemingly apparent in the numbers.  

Edited August 14, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Archmonoth]

10 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Interestingly, for the time being SC25 seems to have moved past SC20 and keeps following a trajectory more like that of SC23; in fact, it's almost even close to matching it. 

I knew I should have put real money on my prediction, drat, maybe next time. I know my prediction was based on incomplete information/ideas, but it is still cool if it comes true. (To me)

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

9 uren geleden, Philalethes zei:

While it's calm right now, overall the flux has kept rising recently, thought I'd provide an update on the development at this critical juncture. Here's what the fluxes for the most relevant cycles (at least in my opinion) look like now:

Interestingly, for the time being SC25 seems to have moved past SC20 and keeps following a trajectory more like that of SC23; in fact, it's almost even close to matching it. Hard to say whether this is due to SC25 heading towards more synchronized peaks or differences between the flux minima and more fundamental underlying mechanisms, or something else entirely (or any combination thereof), but it's certainly an interesting development.

Is the scale right? Jan Alvestad has 152 for cycle 25. 145.5 for cycle 24. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Is the scale right? Jan Alvestad has 152 for cycle 25. 145.5 for cycle 24. 

Patrick, it looks correct to me. Try clicking on the image to enlarge, and all should be clear. Note that 145.5 is for peak of SC24.

[Philalethes]

9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Is the scale right? Jan Alvestad has 152 for cycle 25. 145.5 for cycle 24. 

6 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Patrick, it looks correct to me. Try clicking on the image to enlarge, and all should be clear. Note that 145.5 is for peak of SC24.

Yeah, it's right; ~145 is indeed the peak of SC24, and not corresponding to where we currently are based on the 365-day smoothed flux minima.

Here's the same with the peak values added in:

If there's a tiny difference it's likely because Jan as discussed previously makes some ad hoc corrections to the fluxes based on flaring, but as shown in the thread where we discussed that that's very minor (something like ~100 days out of ~26,000 if I recall correctly).

And here's one showing the values for as long into each cycle as today is into SC25, still based on the flux minima, to show where the other cycles were at at this point:

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

46 minuten geleden, Philalethes zei:

Yeah, it's right; ~145 is indeed the peak of SC24, and not corresponding to where we currently are based on the 365-day smoothed flux minima.

Here's the same with the peak values added in:

If there's a tiny difference it's likely because Jan as discussed previously makes some ad hoc corrections to the fluxes based on flaring, but as shown in the thread where we discussed that that's very minor (something like ~100 days out of ~26,000 if I recall correctly).

And here's one showing the values for as long into each cycle as today is into SC25, still based on the flux minima, to show where the other cycles were at at this point:

Can you give the dates of the minima? Want to check with 1954/03/27 69.70

1964/10/09 72.41

1976/06/09 73.11

1986/09/13 72.60

1996/05/19 71.0

2008/10/06 68.15

2019/11/17 69.13
 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Philalethes]

45 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Can you give the dates of the minima? Want to check with 1954/03/27 69.70

1964/10/09 72.41

1976/06/09 73.11

1986/09/13 72.60

1996/05/19 71.0

2008/10/06 68.15

2019/11/17 69.13
 

Sure, here:

Quote

1954-05-30: 56.3
1964-06-15: 72.0
1976-06-06: 73.1
1986-09-10: 72.6
1996-05-11: 70.9
2008-09-29: 68.2
2019-11-11: 69.2

 

All the cycles after 1964 seem to check out fairly well with what you just posted, a little over a week away at most and very similar values; not sure why there's a discrepancy between our values for 1954 and 1964, but as seen in the plot here the 365-day smoothed minimum for 1954 doesn't seem to come close to ~70 as you list.

[3gMike]

The latest photospheric field map seems to suggest a high probability of low latitude spots in the northern hemisphere.

              

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

7 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

The latest photospheric field map seems to suggest a high probability of low latitude spots in the northern hemisphere.

              

I stated in the beginning of this year that the 13-month smoothed max would fall on the first switch of the average polar magnetic field. This happened in May! Seems my theory could be right🤔🤨😉🥳😊 also my forward looking indicators give May-June… Can’t publish them here’… in peer review

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

The M flare was from a region NEAR THE EQUATOR. Does anybody know if this happened in the past when we have maximum activity?

[Jesterface23]

Has there been closer? The source of the M-Class flare looked to have been between -5 to -10 degrees latitude in Carrington coordinates.

[hamateur 1953]

I was hoping @3gMike would resume discussing this recent drop in sfi and ssn.  Jan Alvestad had posted that it appears we had our first peak in early July.  I’d be very interested to hear from others like Scott for example, on where they see this cycle in six months time.  Naturally us hams are very interested in sfi.  I am also very interested in aurora of course.  Personally I still expect ( hope) for a second higher peak.  Although I doubt it will happen when we hams really need it (this winter).   Edit. I believe the northern hemisphere has been dominant the last nine months or so.  If true, we should expect the Southern Hemisphere to become dominant unless I am missing something crucial here.  Mike/Hagrid 

Edited August 27, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Afterthoughts

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I was hoping @3gMike would resume discussing this recent drop in sfi and ssn.  Jan Alvestad had posted that it appears we had our first peak in early July.  I’d be very interested to hear from others like Scott for example, on where they see this cycle in six months time.  Naturally us hams are very interested in sfi.  I am also very interested in aurora of course.  Personally I still expect ( hope) for a second higher peak.  Although I doubt it will happen when we hams really need it (this winter).   Edit. I believe the northern hemisphere has been dominant the last nine months or so.  If true, we should expect the Southern Hemisphere to become dominant unless I am missing something crucial here.  Mike/Hagrid 

I'd like to know what that assumption by Jan is based on. Not saying it's impossible, but to me it seems too early to tell, as it's only been a single month of diminished activity so far; similar drops have been observed in many previous cycles during the rising phases long before any major (Gnevyshev) peak. So if it's based on just this single month of lower activity then I suppose one could make the case that it makes it more probable that we might have reached a peak, but still far from a certainty.

[tniickck]

i thought that this month's low activity is just because the sun is out of energy for flares after two X flares in two days (the same thing as it was in march-april) 

Edited August 27, 2023 by tniickck

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

I'd like to know what that assumption by Jan is based on.

This is what Jan said

"The first peak of solar cycle 25 is projected to be between July 7 and 10, 2023 (solar flux on July 7, ISN and STAR 1K and 2K all have that peak on July 9, while NOAA peaks on July 10). This is unlikely to be the final peak of SC25, there is only a small chance that it is the actual sunspot and solar flux maximum."

Elsewhere he predicts sunspot max in November 2023

4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I believe the northern hemisphere has been dominant the last nine months or so.

Jan shows an interesting comparison between Cycle 24 and cycle 25 on his website (reproduced here). For a higher resolution image use this link https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

Looking at the red(S) and cyan(N) dashed line for smoothed hemispheric data it is clear that the two cycles are behaving very differently. In cycle 24 there was a clear separation between activity in each hemisphere, but in cycle 25 the two are following a very similar path. This leads me to suspect that we may see only one peak in this cycle.