AR 3500

[Landon Moeller]

1 hour ago, cgrant26 said:

I wonder if this is going to compress any of those filament snap CMEs that are expected to get here on the 30th?

What happened with the November 4-5th conglomerate of three CMEs is the structures became all mixed and distorted, making for very erratic geomagnetic activity. How we as far as I’m aware, today’s M9.9 CME could be the only one providing a flux rope impact at Earth

[cheebee]

i think at least kp 6 for this lot.

there might be more to follow too, i kinda hope so

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, cheebee said:

i think at least kp 6 for this lot.

there might be more to follow too, i kinda hope so

Iswa model says 7-8  tamitha skov said G3-4 but im not sure. @Landon Moeller or @Vancanneyt Sander as well as @mozy @Jesterface23 could probably answer this better than i can. i dont know how much the cme's from yesterday will impact this cme's impact

[Jesterface23]

The SWPC issued a G2/Kp6 watch, but it wasn't for this CME.

So far I'm at around 2 days travel time for this CME, but I'm not 100% if that will stay. Hopefully SOHO doesn't go dark soon till tomorrow.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

 

So far I'm at around 2 days travel time for this CME, but I'm not 100% if that will stay. Hopefully SOHO doesn't go dark soon till tomorrow.

and kp wise?

[Donovan Johnson]

This model shows impact on the 30th. Direct impact!

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

and kp wise?

I don't think it will go under G3 possible at this point. More data is needed.

[MinYoongi]

Okay. 

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I don't think it will go under G3 possible at this point. More data is needed.

as far as i know nasa did its run but noaa has not yet. they always take a bit longer  

[LunarLights58]

Now I feel bad for dismissing 3500 as just a large but unpromising Beta-Gamma (and occasionally Delta) region earlier. Holy moly that was a nice flare and CME it put off, the best Earth-directed one in months!

[auclectic]

Hopefully the link captures the timeframe I was hoping it does. Did the force of the flare knock around GOES? Is that why so much data was missing earlier?

 

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=702&l_1=18&t_1=104&w_1=610&h_1=670&s_1=0_1_100_3_0_2

8 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

Now I feel bad for dismissing 3500 as just a large but unpromising Beta-Gamma (and occasionally Delta) region earlier. Holy moly that was a nice flare and CME it put off, the best Earth-directed one in months!

I think this was the region that spit out the impressive CME on 11/15 before it was earth facing. It's just been a little sleepy since then.

[Jesterface23]

5 minutes ago, auclectic said:

Hopefully the link captures the timeframe I was hoping it does. Did the force of the flare knock around GOES? Is that why so much data was missing earlier?

No. GOES 18 was just doing some sort of operation or happened to have an anomaly occur at the time. 

[auclectic]

Ok GOES X-ray data was also missing right after the peak so I thought it might be related.

[hamateur 1953]

Don’t feel bad. Heck it had lost its delta. Nobody expected this double flare L. L. 

2 hours ago, LunarLights58 said:

Now I feel bad for dismissing 3500 as just a large but unpromising Beta-Gamma (and occasionally Delta) region earlier. Holy moly that was a nice flare and CME it put off, the best Earth-directed one in months!

 

[mozy]

6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Don’t feel bad. Heck it had lost its delta. Nobody expected this double flare L. L. 

 

With this amount of bubbling still going on within the region, one would expect another one if it keeps this up, all it takes is 1 snap of the many filaments in there and we'll have another one.

Edited November 29, 2023 by mozy

[tniickck]

it is quite confusing that there was no proton event. The protons didn't even twitch 

[Jesterface23]

I think the CME arrival will likely come some time between late on the 30th up until noon on the 1st UTC. G3 will be possible if there is an early arrival, but overall likely with a flux rope arrival as well if the Bz can go negative.

 

56 minutes ago, tniickck said:

it is quite confusing that there was no proton event. The protons didn't even twitch 

There are a few other CMEs coming at us acting as a dense barrier. Once the first CME arrives there may be a bit of an increase afterwards.

[tniickck]

26 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I think the CME arrival will likely come some time between late on the 30th up until noon on the 1st UTC. G3 will be possible if there is an early arrival, but overall likely with a flux rope arrival as well if the Bz can go negative.

 

There are a few other CMEs coming at us acting as a dense barrier. Once the first CME arrives there may be a bit of an increase afterwards.

russian unofficial prediction center "ИЗМИРАН"(IZMIRAN) gives these values on 1st Dec:

K6=15%, K7=30%, K8=45%, K9=5%. 

how do you think, do they exaggerate? i think they certainly do. 

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, tniickck said:

russian unofficial prediction center "ИЗМИРАН"(IZMIRAN) gives these values on 1st Dec:

K6=15%, K7=30%, K8=45%, K9=5%. 

how do you think, do they exaggerate? i think they certainly do. 

Well, Kp is the planetary K-Index. So if it is a local K-Index further up north then it might make sense.

[tniickck]

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Well, Kp is the planetary K-Index. So if it is a local K-Index further up north then it might make sense.

oh thank you so much, didn't know that Kp and K are not the same

[MinYoongi]

40 minutes ago, tniickck said:

russian unofficial prediction center "ИЗМИРАН"(IZMIRAN) gives these values on 1st Dec:

 

Its unofficial and i never heard of it. i think the best would be to look at their previous predictions and check if it played out / verified?

[tniickck]

32 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Its unofficial and i never heard of it. i think the best would be to look at their previous predictions and check if it played out / verified?

of course you havent, it is the only working space weather prediction centre in Russia and it posts on VKontakte only in Russian. i checked out, and their predictions were quite accurate, at least on 23 Apr or 5 Nov. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by tniickck

[Vancanneyt Sander]

3 uren geleden, tniickck zei:

it is quite confusing that there was no proton event. The protons didn't even twitch

It's not yet in a good place for proton event, plus had to be more eruptive. An uptick can still happen when the CME nears Earth.

1 uur geleden, tniickck zei:

oh thank you so much, didn't know that Kp and K are not the same

the p in Kp stands for planetary. K planetary (abbreviated as Kp) is the globally predicted one, K-index is a local K for a specific location or for the high, middle, or low latitude region.

Current predictions estimate a predicted Kp of 4 (unsettled) to 7 (G3). This doesn't mean it will be the case, we can only tell when it arrived at L1. For example if IMF stays northward we won't get a big storm. Same for the predicted arrival time (12 UTC December 1st) it can arrive 6 hours earlier or later.

So keep in mind that predictions are predictions and need to be taken with a grain of salt. For example somewhere in the past cycle a big G4 was predicted but CME came late and impact was a fuzz with northward Bz and we only got Kp4... just to say it's just a prediction and not truth it's an estimation of what could be happening. Space weather can't be accurately predicted yet...

[MinYoongi]

exactly. solarham posted following, basically saying the same as sander : 

 

This plasma cloud is clearly Earth directed and is expected to catch up with an earlier CME, or perhaps arrive shortly thereafter. Moderate (G2) storming with a chance for Strong (G3) storming will be expected. Just like with any other CME impact, we will have to monitor the state of the solar wind and see how things play out. Aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes should be alert beginning as early as tonight.

[kansasaurorachaser]

Interesting activity near AR3500.   this almost spade shaped area has been changing a lot the last 2-3 hrs.

visible on all the SUVI bands now.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Remember - these sunspots might give you X classes

 

On the edges of the sun 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Solarflaretracker200