AR 3500

[Vancanneyt Sander]

5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

whats your expectation? 

Just wait for LASCO (patience is your best friend in space weather 😂).

Purely based on coronal dimming it looks pretty symmetrical and will very likely be a full halo. Once LASCO imagery is in, we can see how the CME propagates and at what speed it moves to predict a possible arrival time (and then it will be patience again until the arrival to know the real odds for aurora chances)

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Just wait for LASCO (patience is your best friend in space weather 😂).

Purely based on coronal dimming it looks pretty symmetrical and will very likely be a full halo. Once LASCO imagery is in, we can see how the CME propagates and at what speed it moves to predict a possible arrival time (and then it will be patience again until the arrival to know the real odds for aurora chances)

If impatience was a person it would be me  

[tniickck]

that was fire, hopefully we will get a proton event and a nice geomagnetic storm

[MinYoongi]

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158.html @Vancanneyt Sander someone pointed this out on twitter,  its always nice to read old stuff 🙂 joined in 2019.

[tniickck]

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158.html @Vancanneyt Sander someone pointed this out on twitter,  its always nice to read old stuff 🙂 joined in 2019.

today's dimming is stronger, i suppose. just my opinion, and it has better location so it will not be send north 

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, tniickck said:

today's dimming is stronger, i suppose. just my opinion, and it has better location so it will not be send north 

hm, i wonder what it will bring

[Vancanneyt Sander]

12 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158.html @Vancanneyt Sander someone pointed this out on twitter,  its always nice to read old stuff 🙂 joined in 2019.

Well SpaceWeatherLive started in 2008 😜, the Dutch version was even earlier dating from 2005. And exactly 20 years ago today I started my first astronomy website and was already following space weather. 

again on-topic: EPAM is responding to the flare that occurred with a rise in electron and protons. 

[Philalethes]

49 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Strong coronal dimming, and looking at the dimming imagery it looks promising 😎 looking forward to see LASCO imagery tomorrow 

I suspect we're going to get LASCO imagery pretty soon for this, at least recently it seems they're prioritizing it whenever there's potential activity.

In fact, I think I can make out a faint glow all around the disc on C2 on the very latest image.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I think I can make out a faint glow all around the disc on C2 on the very latest image.

ah, so likely full halo?  

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 

again on-topic: EPAM is responding to the flare that occurred with a rise in electron and protons. 

ah, thats typical right? with everything going on i did not pay attention to that.. oops

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2023 Nov 28 1934 UTC

Estimated Velocity: 340 km/s   

 

@Vancanneyt Sander  is that a bug?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

ah, thats typical right? with everything going on i did not pay attention to that.. oops

See our help section 😉

7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

is that a bug?

There where two type II alerts, one 340km/sec and second 854km/sec. Keep in mind that’s the speed of the radio emission and not the CME.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

See our help section 😉

There where two type II alerts, one 340km/sec and second 854km/sec. Keep in mind that’s the speed of the radio emission and not the CME.

yeah i know. but im still confused with them, i asked this so many times but i always got conflicting answers. one party says the radio emission speed can/is correlated somewhat with the CME speed (moving ahead of it like a wave or smth) and others say its not alligned at all. 🙃

[Isatsuki San]

Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Zojuist, Isatsuki San zei:

Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

That’s really preliminary 😂

we need LASCO for a good CME speed indication 😜

lets enjoy the nice dimming sequence again:

 

 

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

how did you do the math? what did you base it on? interested in this

[Isatsuki San]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

¿Cómo hiciste los cálculos? ¿en qué te basaste? interesado en esto

Don't take me into account as much, as I said it's a guess, I use a little go 18 since I remember the estimated speeds of the cmes that you have passed before, what I base it on is only the speeds that I saw previously, but I still don't know which one. Can I be right about this, it is just a suspicion for now, there is nothing proven that I can be right,

[Landon Moeller]

Here we go! LASCO C2 rolling in. Full halo CME, most dense to the south. But quite squarely directed at Earth.

[Isatsuki San]

11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Eso es realmente preliminar 😂

Necesitamos LASCO para una buena indicación de velocidad CME 😜

Disfrutemos nuevamente de la agradable secuencia de atenuación:

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Eso es realmente preliminar 😂

Necesitamos LASCO para una buena indicación de velocidad CME 😜

Disfrutemos nuevamente de la agradable secuencia de atenuación:

 

 

I know Vancanneyt Sander, I just wanted to give a little suspicion, I know that my theory can be disproved very easily with lasco

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Landon Moeller said:

Here we go! LASCO C2 rolling in. Full halo CME, most dense to the south. But quite squarely directed at Earth.

so bulk to the south? How fast is it?  Nice ! thank you!

[cgrant26]

I wonder if this is going to compress any of those filament snap CMEs that are expected to get here on the 30th?

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

I wonder if this is going to compress any of those filament snap CMEs that are expected to get here on the 30th?

hmm if landon is right with it coming late 30th, early 1st, i think it will be more of a back to back thing

[cgrant26]

[NEAurora]

Geeze! Looks like this one was so strong that SUVI was seeing double ... triple ... quintuple? 🤪
Clear full halo visible on C3 now as well as C2, looks pretty good; bright.

Edited November 28, 2023 by NEAurora

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

And it is still going up   Rockandroll   Gimme an X 

Almost got there loll

[MinYoongi]

Dr.Skov gave her forecast  do you guys agree? 

[Jesterface23]

Waiting for imagery to load on my phone... I've never seen GOES 18 so excited for an almost X-Class flare

.............

Now at home loading all of the data as fast as I can... Pretty halo

Edited November 28, 2023 by Jesterface23