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tniickck

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5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

whats your expectation?聽

Just wait for LASCO (patience is your best friend in space weather 馃槀).

Purely based on coronal dimming it looks pretty symmetrical and will very likely be a full halo. Once LASCO imagery is in, we can see how the CME propagates and at what speed it moves to predict a possible arrival time (and then it will be patience again until the arrival to know the real odds for aurora chances)

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1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Just wait for LASCO (patience is your best friend in space weather 馃槀).

Purely based on coronal dimming it looks pretty symmetrical and will very likely be a full halo. Once LASCO imagery is in, we can see how the CME propagates and at what speed it moves to predict a possible arrival time (and then it will be patience again until the arrival to know the real odds for aurora chances)

If impatience was a person it would be me ;)

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11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158.html@Vancanneyt Sander聽someone pointed this out on twitter,聽 its always nice to read old stuff 馃檪聽joined in 2019.

today's dimming is stronger, i suppose. just my opinion, and it has better location so it will not be send north聽

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12 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/9/20140910-x16-solar-flare-from-sunspot-region-2158.html@Vancanneyt Sander聽someone pointed this out on twitter,聽 its always nice to read old stuff 馃檪聽joined in 2019.

Well SpaceWeatherLive started in 2008 馃槣, the Dutch version was even earlier dating from 2005. And exactly 20 years ago today I started my first astronomy website and was already following space weather.聽

again on-topic: EPAM is responding to the flare that occurred with a rise in electron and protons.聽

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49 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Strong coronal dimming, and looking at the dimming imagery it looks promising 馃槑 looking forward to see LASCO imagery tomorrow聽

I suspect we're going to get LASCO imagery pretty soon for this, at least recently it seems they're prioritizing it whenever there's potential activity.

In fact, I think I can make out a faint glow all around the disc on C2 on the very latest image.

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2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I think I can make out a faint glow all around the disc on C2 on the very latest image.

ah, so likely full halo? :)

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

again on-topic: EPAM is responding to the flare that occurred with a rise in electron and protons.聽

ah, thats typical right? with everything going on i did not pay attention to that.. oops

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Nov 28 1934 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 340 km/s聽 聽
@Vancanneyt Sander聽 is that a bug?
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6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

ah, thats typical right? with everything going on i did not pay attention to that.. oops

See our help section 馃槈

7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

is that a bug?

There where two type II alerts, one 340km/sec and second 854km/sec. Keep in mind that鈥檚 the speed of the radio emission and not the CME.

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2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

See our help section 馃槈

There where two type II alerts, one 340km/sec and second 854km/sec. Keep in mind that鈥檚 the speed of the radio emission and not the CME.

yeah i know. but im still confused with them, i asked this so many times but i always got conflicting answers. one party says the radio emission speed can/is correlated somewhat with the CME speed (moving ahead of it like a wave or smth) and others say its not alligned at all.聽馃檭

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Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

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Zojuist, Isatsuki San zei:

Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

That鈥檚 really preliminary 馃槀

we need LASCO for a good CME speed indication 馃槣

lets enjoy the nice dimming sequence again:

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5 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Hmm, I don't know what happened to Goes 18 but it makes me laugh a little how he moves from one side to the other, but I know you're not ready yet. but my suspicion is that the cme moves at 940 kilometers per second or 1120 kilometers per second, it will arrive on December 1 more or less between 21 UTC or perhaps it would arrive on December 2,

how did you do the math? what did you base it on? interested in this

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

驴C贸mo hiciste los c谩lculos? 驴en qu茅 te basaste? interesado en esto

Don't take me into account as much, as I said it's a guess, I use a little go 18 since I remember the estimated speeds of the cmes that you have passed before, what I base it on is only the speeds that I saw previously, but I still don't know which one. Can I be right about this, it is just a suspicion for now, there is nothing proven that I can be right,

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11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Eso es realmente preliminar 馃槀

Necesitamos LASCO para una buena indicaci贸n de velocidad CME 馃槣

Disfrutemos nuevamente de la agradable secuencia de atenuaci贸n:

12 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Eso es realmente preliminar 馃槀

Necesitamos LASCO para una buena indicaci贸n de velocidad CME 馃槣

Disfrutemos nuevamente de la agradable secuencia de atenuaci贸n:

I know Vancanneyt Sander, I just wanted to give a little suspicion, I know that my theory can be disproved very easily with lasco

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