AR 3386

[MinYoongi]

8 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME seems pretty good overall, maybe 28-40 hours travel time to 1AU. As far as the Earth directed component, it is still a glancing blow, but it looks a lot better than the CME that launched this morning. A travel time to Earth of around 60 hours seems possible at this point, but there isn't enough imagery for a full forecast yet.

 

 

it was modeled as a total miss

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

it was modeled as a total miss

but not by enlil. only time will show

[Landon Moeller]

3 hours ago, tniickck said:

but not by enlil. only time will show

This CME that is modeled is from then morning filament eruption associated with 3386. This is not from the X1.6 flare in the evening. NOAA has yet to post a model run of the X flare CME, but they say it’s unexpected to be earth directed

[tniickck]

13 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

This CME that is modeled is from then morning filament eruption associated with 3386. This is not from the X1.6 flare in the evening. NOAA has yet to post a model run of the X flare CME, but they say it’s unexpected to be earth directed

oh thanks

[Landon Moeller]

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

oh thanks

 

On the other hand, the Australian BoM Space Weather Services disagree, and provide a glancing blow to Earth, which I do agree with due to the partial halo in coronagraph. Nothing strong expected either way

[Jesterface23]

What the models I am seeing have in common so far is a glancing blow near the edge of the CME. Probably one of the harder areas to forecast the arrival time for with a higher chance of error

[Philalethes]

[Jesterface23]

Bad news, another strong limb M-Class flare. Good news, the Sun is active.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Jesterface23

[SpaceWeather5464]

M5

[Jesterface23]

The region has launched an additional filament with at least the last 3 flares at this point if I remember correctly.

[tniickck]

could be another X, but only m5.5

 

 I hate riding the train because there's almost no internet and I can't monitor data

[tniickck]

M6.7 from here 

X1.08 

[Philalethes]

9 minutes ago, tniickck said:

M6.7 from here 

X1.08 

Yep, looks like the X-flare is from this beyond the limb, impressive. Presumably we'll get some protons in an hour or two. SolO is still in a decent position to see it too, will be interesting to see if it registers it as roughly the same or stronger.

[tniickck]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Yep, looks like the X-flare is from this beyond the limb, impressive. Presumably we'll get some protons in an hour or two. SolO is still in a decent position to see it too, will be interesting to see if it registers it as roughly the same or stronger.

will it be on stix light curves data page? 

[Philalethes]

Just now, tniickck said:

will it be on stix light curves data page? 

Presumably, at least SolO should be in position to register it.

[cgrant26]

Wow, another one!

[Philalethes]

Deciding to hang around X-level a bit longer, I see:

[hamateur 1953]

Just canna leave us without a farewell x-class.  Possibly the most active AR this cycle.  87 dealt out some M class today too.  Cool stuff.   Look at 131 also on the x class. From the spikes it may have been a double shot from 87 as well. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Philalethes]

@NEAurora: Looks quite eruptive indeed, tons of movement in the the corona visible in the 171 and 195 Å imagery at least.

[Ester89]

Two beautiful images 

[Chris, HB9DFG]

Hi all

It is so frustrating to watch good spots crossing for two weeks quietly over the surface
of the sun to the west side to finally explode in X-flares on and on and on...

And this isn't the first time this cycle. I really wonder if we will ever have a real earth
directed X-flare with a fast and long duration CME again like we had many times during
the last solar maximas. OK, this maximum is better than expected, but related to earth
directed strong X-flares it is a big big flop according to my feelings

So sorry for this frustrating sounding post (that's also a reason I am not very often here
in this fine forum), but the sun is disappointing me so much that I do not observe it like I
did all the other solar maximas before when we sometimes had more Xs in a row and
this earth directed as well.

There is still some little hope for some exciting flares in the near future bringing more and
better northern lights and also more radio aurorae for us radio amateur in southern regions
where we can't see the northern lights but where we can use them as a reflector for contacts
towards north.

 

Best regards, Chris

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Chris, HB9DFG

[Philalethes]

Proton flux starting to rise now, will be interesting to see how high it gets.

[IlikeAuroras]

19 minutes ago, Chris, HB9DFG said:

Hi all

It is so frustrating to watch good spots crossing for two weeks quietly over the surface
of the sun to the west side to finally explode in X-flares on and on and on...

And this isn't the first time this cycle. I really wonder if we will ever have a real earth
directed X-flare with a fast and long duration CME again like we had many times during
the last solar maximas. OK, this maximum is better than expected, but related to earth
directed strong X-flares it is a big big flop according to my feelings

So sorry for this frustrating sounding post (that's also a reason I am not very often here
in this fine forum), but the sun is disappointing me so much that I do not observe it like I
did all the other solar maximas before when we sometimes had more Xs in a row and
this earth directed as well.

There is still some little hope for some exciting flares in the near future bringing more and
better northern lights and also more radio aurorae for us radio amateur in southern regions
where we can't see the northern lights but where we can use them as a reflector for contacts
towards north.

 

Best regards, Chris

 

Yeah, it's really sad that so far, all X-flares of SC25 weren't truly earth-directed. I even have them marked down:

 

We still have at minimum 6 years for an X-flare facing the Earth, so there's definitely still a chance

[Xavier Stanton]

The latest X-class flare gave us a rather fast CME, with the speed seemingly comparable to the September 2017 near-R4 flare.

 

But as many have pointed out this eruption was from beyond the limb of the Sun. Even a glancing blow would seem unlikely at this point but we'll see.

[Jesterface23]

There's not a chance of an impact from this latest X-Class flare's CME. There have certainly been a ton of fast CMEs as of late. We just need one of them at center disk.