SpaceWeather5464 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, tniickck said: any chance for Proton event? i think im not gonna sleep tonight, already 1:30 am here We might have a S3 proton event, Long duration X flares are great at creating strong proton events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 this "opens" or "pops" around 22:08 beginning (suvi) i dont know if its related or of relevance. @mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, SpaceWeather5464 said: We might have a S3 proton event, Long duration X flares are great at creating strong proton events. hell yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted August 5, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted August 5, 2023 SUVI imagery of the peak just in: As Shakira sings, diffraction spikes don't lie...or something like that. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 minute ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: We might have a S3 proton event, Long duration X flares are great at creating strong proton events. why do you think s3? just a guess or experience? I need to learn more about them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: why do you think s3? just a guess or experience? I need to learn more about them! being simple - eruptive events cause Proton events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 thanks well i mean it being wide would still only make it a glancing blow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: thanks look at 18 Jul M5.7 flare, it was very eruptive and caused S2 storm (and gave us a little glancing blow) 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: well i mean it being wide would still only make it a glancing blow right? well i wouldnt say it might be geoeffective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 "Early indications are that a coronal mass ejection (CME) will be associated with this event. Due to the location towards the west limb, most of the ejected material should be directed away from our planet. Coronagraph imagery will be required to determine if a glancing blow will be possible." (Source : Solarham) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 even a glancing blow is fine, we got a Type 2 radio sweep btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Significantly steeper rise in the electrons now than from the one earlier today, we'll probably see the same for the proton flux eventually; S3 sounds a bit too optimistic, but another S2 wouldn't surprise me at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 minute ago, tniickck said: we got a Type 2 radio sweep btw they are often associated with CME's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: they are often associated with CME's right? they are always associated with CME, Type 2 are regular and Type 4 are from strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Significantly steeper rise in the electrons now than from the one earlier today, we'll probably see the same for the proton flux eventually; S3 sounds a bit too optimistic, but another S2 wouldn't surprise me at this point. Well there was that one time we got a S4 storm from a X1 flare, Back in 2001. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2001/11/04/xray.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Significantly steeper rise in the electrons now than from the one earlier today, we'll probably see the same for the proton flux eventually; S3 sounds a bit too optimistic, but another S2 wouldn't surprise me at this point. i would give it a S3 anyway, lets see 4 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Well there was that one time we got a S4 storm from a X1 flare, Back in 2001. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2001/11/04/xray.html an important role is played by the proximity of the solar flare to the center of the limb, that flare in 2001 was much closer to the center than today's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) LASCO just refreshed. Definitely a CME although not super intense looking. Looks like it might be a full halo though. (barely) Edited August 5, 2023 by cgrant26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: LASCO just refreshed. Definitely a CME although not super intense looking. Looks like it might be a full halo though. so a possible glancing blow with the bulk missing? Ty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 At best we might be able to get an asymmetric halo. A glancing blow impact would be most likely if it does arrive at Earth. Still all to be set in stone in coronagraph imagery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Proton start growing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Honestly, the CME from around 07:00 UTC was a more impressive looking CME than this one. That one unfortunately wasn't Earth directed. I'm anxious to see LASCO C3 in the next few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: At best we might be able to get an asymmetric halo. A glancing blow impact would be most likely if it does arrive at Earth. Still all to be set in stone in coronagraph imagery. 15 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: Honestly, the CME from around 07:00 UTC was a more impressive looking CME than this one. That one unfortunately wasn't Earth directed. I'm anxious to see LASCO C3 in the next few hours. thank you two for the opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 So far, based on my initial read of SUVI and lasco imagery, I give this CME a resounding, “eh.” Center disk would have been solid, but I wouldn’t expect much (if anything) geomagnetic wise from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 (edited) The CME seems pretty good overall, maybe 28-40 hours travel time to 1AU. As far as the Earth directed component, it is still a glancing blow, but it looks a lot better than the CME that launched this morning. A travel time to Earth of around 60 hours seems possible at this point, but there isn't enough imagery for a full forecast yet. Edited August 6, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 (edited) A small eastern CME blocks some of this CME in coronagraph imagery, but I think the travel time to L1 may be within 54-72 hours. I'd estimate G2 unlikely due to it being a glancing blow, but possible. Edited August 6, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted August 6, 2023 Author Share Posted August 6, 2023 and we had no Proton event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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