AR 13311

[NEAurora]

I put together a fun visualization of the flaring activity, plotting the peak strength against the approximate duration for all of the flares in the past 7 days, with the color showing how recent the flares occurred.  The blue contour is a general (totally arbitrary guide) attempting to delineate which flares might be most likely associated with a CME.  Given all the red, you can really see the uptick in the C and M flares over the last 36 hours or so.  Let's hope that all this impulsive flaring is building up to something great in a couple of days!

[Danklyfrank]

Quote

 

Any idea what planetary body moves in front of the camera at 0:15 seconds?

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/mpeg/latest_1024_0094.mp4

 

EDIT realized its the moon. 😛

Edited May 20, 2023 by Danklyfrank

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, NEAurora said:

I put together a fun visualization of the flaring activity, plotting the peak strength against the approximate duration for all of the flares in the past 7 days, with the color showing how recent the flares occurred.  The blue contour is a general (totally arbitrary guide) attempting to delineate which flares might be most likely associated with a CME.  Given all the red, you can really see the uptick in the C and M flares over the last 36 hours or so.  Let's hope that all this impulsive flaring is building up to something great in a couple of days!

Very cool! By the looks of it there does seem to be more activity lately, but it also looks like a big uptick in C-flare activity; I don't know whether that's actually a sign indicating potential for larger flares or that it's dying down, though. By just looking at the flux graph there does seem to be an upwards overall trend. Also, I wonder how many of those early C-flares were actually more powerful, but seen as such due to still being slightly behind the limb or about to cross it, could potentially be a confounding factor too.

Definitely a lot of good information packed into a single plot, great for regions like this.

[Ester89]

Could someone show me what has changed in the region so that the denomination has changed from Beta-Delta to Beta-Gamma-Delta? Is it due to the second Delta or has something changed that I can't see?

[NEAurora]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Also, I wonder how many of those early C-flares were actually more powerful, but seen as such due to still being slightly behind the limb or about to cross it, could potentially be a confounding factor too.

This is a good point, not one I’d considered.

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

It does look that way:

First from 06:00, second from 17:00.

Makes sense with all the flaring.

thank you for the comparison pictures! Very appreciated. could this be a reason flaring has become more c-class ranged?

ps: alot of the flux seems to come from the western regions right now rather than this region, if im right.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Ester89 said:

Could someone show me what has changed in the region so that the denomination has changed from Beta-Delta to Beta-Gamma-Delta? Is it due to the second Delta or has something changed that I can't see?

When the region first appeared there weren't really any clear spots of positive polarity mixed into the larger negative group, although the larger delta could be inferred from the imagery; arguably it should strictly speaking have been classified as gamma since that delta made it impossible to divide the polarities with a clean line, but I guess they elected not to for some reason, since it was pretty much only that delta at that point. Now there are more small spots intermixed around the middle of the region that makes it clearly impossible to divide the polarities cleanly, so it would be very strange at this point not to give it the gamma designation.

As for why there's more complexity visible now, it might partially be due to getting a better view, but it seems like some of it is still emerging and that there's a fair amount of activity under the surface. Here's a lapse from yesterday at ~12 to now where you can see that there are definitely various spots emerging and contributing to the increase in complexity (not embedding it here for aesthetic reasons as it's a bit shaky, I'll probably make a better solution for that at some point if I can be bothered).

[Marcel de Bont]

8 uren geleden, ChefyStephie zei:

Long time lurker, first time poster

loving all the spiciness from this region but I’m readying myself for another “all bark, no bite”, which seems to be a fairly regular pattern as this cycle ramps up. But nothing’s out of the question, is it? Seems the first flares when rotating into view were certainly impulsive, but the newer ones have been showing a desire for duration, yes?

Welcome Stephie! Haha. Thus far it is indeed all bark no bite. There is a tight delta structure where all of the flaring seems to be taking place all very isolated. Powerful flares but very local and short in duration. Lets hope the region develops and starts producing eruptive long duration flares soon!

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

thank you for the comparison pictures! Very appreciated. could this be a reason flaring has become more c-class ranged?

ps: alot of the flux seems to come from the western regions right now rather than this region, if im right.

Could definitely be why there are more C-flares, but there also seems to be a fair amount of emerging activity, e.g. the new delta emerged quite recently, so there are decent chances for more flares; indeed as I write this I just saw the M-flare notification pop up on my screen, so it's still going for now.

Not sure about the flux, from looking at 171 Å it seems like all the regions are crackling a fair amount, so I'd guess the background flux is coming from all of them to some extent. If any region is contributing more I would think it's this one.

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Could definitely be why there are more C-flares, but there also seems to be a fair amount of emerging activity, e.g. the new delta emerged quite recently, so there are decent chances for more flares; indeed as I write this I just saw the M-flare notification pop up on my screen, so it's still going for now.

Not sure about the flux, from looking at 171 Å it seems like all the regions are crackling a fair amount, so I'd guess the background flux is coming from all of them to some extent. If any region is contributing more I would think it's this one.

Yeah, agree.
keep me updated about region changes please! I love the comparison pics

[MinYoongi]

Am i right in seeing no delta present anymore as of right now?

[Ester89]

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Am i right in seeing no delta present anymore as of right now?

Certainly, the 2 deltas that were there yesterday are not there today. Could it be that a new one has formed in the area that I point out? Not sure, could be 2 different penumbras close to each other

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Certainly, the 2 deltas that were there yesterday are not there today. Could it be that a new one has formed in the area that I point out? Not sure, could be 2 different penumbras close to each other

I think thats the second delta from yesterday, i think. Altough very, very small and possibly shrinking even more.

PS: Youre getting really good at spotting deltas!  

update 16:05 UTC: I wonder if this region is flaring right now (m2 as of now). no suvi imagery yet

[Ester89]

27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I think thats the second delta from yesterday, i think. Altough very, very small and possibly shrinking even more.

PS: Youre getting really good at spotting deltas!  

update 16:05 UTC: I wonder if this region is flaring right now (m2 as of now). no suvi imagery yet

Very lucky to have such great teachers here 😅 I learn from you every day!! I'm tracking space weather for barely half a year

Now from suvi imagery, it looks like the last flare is still coming from this region!! I was already giving her up for dead...

[MinYoongi]

9 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Very lucky to have such great teachers here 😅 I learn from you every day!! I'm tracking space weather for barely half a year

Now from suvi imagery, it looks like the last flare is still coming from this region!! I was already giving her up for dead...

Wow, pretty impressive learn curve for 6 months! I've been on here since late 2019, its an awesome place.

[ChefyStephie]

*Monty Python voice* “I’m noht dead yet! I’m feeling bettah!”

I have a hard time envisioning this area will be a bust before entering the Earth strike area, it’s plenty complex. But it will be fun and educational to watch its behavior none the less. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

Shhhh, don't give it the idea or make it realize it can just stop being cool! 🤫🤣

[mozy]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I think thats the second delta from yesterday, i think. Altough very, very small and possibly shrinking even more.

It's a new delta that came to be this morning, but shrinking indeed.

[Solarflaretracker200]

42 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

I'm tracking space weather for barely half a year

Yeah, learning space weather is hard, don't worry I have been watching for a while too and it's still complex to me lmao

[Planeus]

Looks to be multiple possible emerging/decaying deltas right now. I am a newbie though so I may be wrong

https://imgur.com/gallery/jRmKLK5 

[MinYoongi]

36 minutes ago, Planeus said:

Looks to be multiple possible emerging/decaying deltas right now. I am a newbie though so I may be wrong

https://imgur.com/gallery/jRmKLK5 

sadly those are the diminishing ones, but you spotted them correctly   A delta is stronger the more "shear" it has. this means, the closer (pushed together) the opposite polarities are, the more they "fight" with eachother, resulting in flaring. 

[Philalethes]

32 minutes ago, Planeus said:

Looks to be multiple possible emerging/decaying deltas right now. I am a newbie though so I may be wrong

https://imgur.com/gallery/jRmKLK5 

In the area of the topmost circle all the spots are positive as far as I can see, and I don't see any positive spot at all in the area of the leftmost circle. Of the two other circles that remain, the spots of the left one do not share a penumbra, and thus is not a delta; the right one is the only one that remains a delta as of now, which is the same as was discussed above.

It's good exercise, though; also, I think you should use the non-flattened intensitygram for the comparison, at least I've found from doing the same that the polarities match up almost perfectly that way as long as you crop the exact same area (only very close to the limbs are some areas not always readily visible).

[MinYoongi]

the delta grew a little bit.

 << before (19utc)


 << after (23 UTC)

[Ester89]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

the delta grew a little bit.

 << before (19utc)


 << after (23 UTC)

 

It's true! Right now the penumbras are almost together with that of the large positive spot on the left. 

It doesn't seem to be going away!! Hold on, little delta! 😆

 

 

[MinYoongi]

@Philalethes Howdy! I'm not sure but looking closely at the gif youre providing im starting to think the two sunspots belong to the positive sunspot, thus making the delta "dead". what do you think? Background crackling is still there, so im not too sure. surely still gamma, but im not sure if the Region still posesses a delta as of now?