AR 13311

[Philalethes]

Quite a bit of flaring from this new region already (which I assume will be 3311), a few M-flares so far, including this last one that seems to be eruptive, and has moved up and down while staying in the M-class for over an hour at the point of writing. Not aimed at Earth at all at this point, though.

[mozy]

Sure is an active one, exciting with some more frequent activity again.

[Philalethes]

4 hours ago, mozy said:

Sure is an active one, exciting with some more frequent activity again.

Yeah, and it seems like it's becoming more frequent now, although maybe that's just very recently. Anything M-class and above is still pretty good to me at least. Maybe it'll become less noteworthy as we approach maximum, but by my reckoning we're still at least a year away from that. I didn't start paying attention to Solar activity and space weather until around this minimum, so I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what it looks like.

[mozy]

5 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Yeah, and it seems like it's becoming more frequent now, although maybe that's just very recently. Anything M-class and above is still pretty good to me at least. Maybe it'll become less noteworthy as we approach maximum, but by my reckoning we're still at least a year away from that. I didn't start paying attention to Solar activity and space weather until around this minimum, so I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what it looks like.

This will be my second maximum, although I barely knew what minimum & maximum were last time, I just followed spaceweather casually.

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, mozy said:

This will be my second maximum, although I barely knew what minimum & maximum were last time, I just followed spaceweather casually.

Too bad the last maximum was one of the weakest on record, heh. Bit of a sad time to be alive in terms of Solar activity overall so far, although we don't know yet where SC25 will end up. Imagine living in 1957-1959 though, with a sustained SSN of over 250 for almost two years straight; I count 28 days during those years with an SN of over 400, with 2 of those days barely peaking above 500, sounds pretty wild.

As for this region, looks like another sustained flare; just wait a few more days with the really big eruptions...

[mozy]

What even is this flare, up down up down up down lol

[Ester89]

15 minutes ago, mozy said:

What even is this flare, up down up down up down lol

Up down up down up up up... 😆

[Isatsuki San]

35 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Arriba abajo arriba abajo arriba arriba arriba... 😆

I think that sunspot you are thinking that it is playing with an arcade machine from going up and down so much

[Isatsuki San]

Notice something strange in this spot that has a very small red dot and the rest is pink? That means it's a gamma betta, right?

[Philalethes]

19 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

Notice something strange in this spot that has a very small red dot and the rest is pink? That means it's a gamma betta, right?

Well, that in itself does not classify it as beta or gamma, but it could be that you've picked up on a pattern where such spots tend to be associated with more complexity, so there could be a relationship there. This region is still not clearly in view, but by the looks of it it's quite complex, and definitely looks like it's at least a beta-gamma. Here's a transition view of the relevant parts of the region so far:

Even though it's still not a great angle for viewing it well, you can see that there's a lot of mixing there. I'm not sure how far in the process of breaking up it is, or if complexity is still emerging, but clearly it's still flaring a lot, like it is right now.

[mozy]

9 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Well, that in itself does not classify it as beta or gamma, but it could be that you've picked up on a pattern where such spots tend to be associated with more complexity, so there could be a relationship there. This region is still not clearly in view, but by the looks of it it's quite complex, and definitely looks like it's at least a beta-gamma. Here's a transition view of the relevant parts of the region so far:

Even though it's still not a great angle for viewing it well, you can see that there's a lot of mixing there. I'm not sure how far in the process of breaking up it is, or if complexity is still emerging, but clearly it's still flaring a lot, like it is right now.

I believe there's a solid delta beginning to show itself now that we're starting to see the region better. (?)

Starting to see small hints of blue at that exact spot crammed in there on the magnetogram as It's rotating closer to our field of view

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by mozy

[Philalethes]

1 minute ago, mozy said:

I believe there's a solid delta beginning to show itself now that we're starting to see the region better. (?)

Starting to see small hints of blue at that exact spot crammed in there on the magnetogram as It's rotating closer to our field of view

 

Yeah, that looks quite plausible based on how the m-gram usually looks at those angles, i.e. that small positive region could very well correspond to that spot. That would be rather promising for activity. Also a sign of some real movement in the heliomagnetic field if complexity keeps emerging here.

[Ester89]

It's awesome and beautiful how the constant flares from the region look 😍

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/mpeg/latest_1024_0094.mp4

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Ester89

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

Do you believe the current kp6 could be from 3311? I actually missed any of the recent flares from there that had worrysome parameters. 
 

That south coronal hole seems to have grown a bit, could it accelerate wind while the region rotates to face us? 3311 seems pretty active.

[Ester89]

11 minutes ago, Paulo Scaldaferri said:

Do you believe the current kp6 could be from 3311? I actually missed any of the recent flares from there that had worrysome parameters. 
 

That south coronal hole seems to have grown a bit, could it accelerate wind while the region rotates to face us? 3311 seems pretty active.

At the risk of being wrong (I'll be glad if someone corrects me), from what I've understood so far, I'd say that most of the flares in the region have been impulsive. A couple have been eruptive but none of them with a earth-directed component

[mozy]

Damnit, just short of the X-flare once again 😅

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

Damnit, just short of the X-flare once again 😅

Yep, and impulsive again too by the looks of it. This region is just pure bait.

[mozy]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Yep, and impulsive again too by the looks of it. This region is just pure bait.

Wouldn't surprise me if this flare just kills the delta aswell lol

[ChefyStephie]

Long time lurker, first time poster

loving all the spiciness from this region but I’m readying myself for another “all bark, no bite”, which seems to be a fairly regular pattern as this cycle ramps up. But nothing’s out of the question, is it? Seems the first flares when rotating into view were certainly impulsive, but the newer ones have been showing a desire for duration, yes?

[mozy]

We now have 2 deltas, the new one being less impressive.

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, mozy said:

We now have 2 deltas, the new one being less impressive.

Where? 😮

im not quite seeing it

[Philalethes]

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Where? 😮

im not quite seeing it

First to the left, second to the right:

[MinYoongi]

thanks. when i look at a picture i took this morning, the main delta shrunk a bit right?

9 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

First to the left, second to the right:

 

[Philalethes]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

thanks. when i look at a picture i took this morning, the main delta shrunk a bit right?

It does look that way:

First from 06:00, second from 17:00.

Makes sense with all the flaring.

[Isatsuki San]

44 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Primero a la izquierda, segundo a la derecha:

wow, as a change, last time it looked like a beta-gamma, but it seems that it was demoted from betta-gamma to a betta-delta later