Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei: how does the region hold up complexity wise? still too close to the limb for a clear view. For now there might be a delta inside but we'll be sure in about a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: still too close to the limb for a clear view. For now there might be a delta inside but we'll be sure in about a day An updated look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: An updated look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, mozy said: the circle is a delta and the arrow is a new delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: the circle is a delta and the arrow is a new delta? Circle is delta, arrow is possibly a delta, really small though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, mozy said: Circle is delta, arrow is possibly a delta, really small though the region seems rather quiet today, did the shear / complexity or both lessen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: the region seems rather quiet today, did the shear / complexity or both lessen? Possibly, watch it pop off now after you wrote that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, mozy said: Possibly, watch it pop off now after you wrote that is it the one flaring rn? SUVI isnt updated yet so i cant see and idk how you guys (like @Christopher S. suggested) pull the quick SDO images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is it the one flaring rn? SUVI isnt updated yet so i cant see and idk how you guys (like @Christopher S. suggested) pull the quick SDO images No, it's 3186 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 26 minutes ago, Orneno said: No, it's 3186 I think Now its this region ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 59 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: the region seems rather quiet today, did the shear / complexity or both lessen? don't forget that even big complex regions can have quiet periods! I've seen regions being inactive for 24h with very complex magnetic layout and strong shear (and they popped a big X out of it 😉 ). Many times it's better to have a big good long duration flare than many short lived and impulsive flares because those don't deliver much. So it's not if they are quiet that it is bad. As long as there are delta's in the game, strong flares can happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: don't forget that even big complex regions can have quiet periods! I've seen regions being inactive for 24h with very complex magnetic layout and strong shear (and they popped a big X out of it 😉 ). Many times it's better to have a big good long duration flare than many short lived and impulsive flares because those don't deliver much. So it's not if they are quiet that it is bad. As long as there are delta's in the game, strong flares can happen. Absolutely true and i value your wisdom! Its just - when i look at the region it doesnt look as spectacular as it did yesterday, what do you say? if i'm correct the blue part of the delta is rather small and not that close to the red one? also, what is the shear for this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Its just - when i look at the region it doesnt look as spectacular as it did yesterday, what do you say? if i'm correct the blue part of the delta is rather small and not that close to the red one? Well what I often do is play a sequence of a day of images of HMII continuum in jhelioviewer. You can set the view on the region and click the 'Track' button in the toolbar so it keeps the region centered, if you then play the sequence you have a good view on how the region is evolving. That way you can see that the penumbral area of the trailing part of the region is getting less and less indicating that the region is shrinking and losing spots and if it continues loose magnetic complexity. And thus, the complexity has already dropped as there is no magnetic delta structure present. 8 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: also, what is the shear for this region? None, because you can only have magnetic shear if there's a strong delta present. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: don't forget that even big complex regions can have quiet periods! I've seen regions being inactive for 24h with very complex magnetic layout and strong shear (and they popped a big X out of it 😉 ). Many times it's better to have a big good long duration flare than many short lived and impulsive flares because those don't deliver much. So it's not if they are quiet that it is bad. As long as there are delta's in the game, strong flares can happen. @MinYoongi To add some examples to what Sander said: Sometimes it's the quiet before the storm. For example, here are some of the top strongest flares of all time, and you can see both times there weren't any other M or X flares that day, it's the only one above C. And for one of them, the background flux was even all the way down in the B-range, and then it popped off an X14! So quiet for a while doesn't mean it's over! Edited January 10, 2023 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, Orneno said: @MinYoongi To add some examples to what Sander said: Sometimes it's the quiet before the storm. For example, here are some of the top strongest flares of all time, and you can see both times there weren't any other M or X flares that day, it's the only one above C. And for one of them, the background flux was even all the way down in the B-range, and then it popped off an X14! So quiet for a while doesn't mean it's over! yes i get what you say But i think the regions are simplyfying a little bit, im not just going by background flux / C-M Activity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yes i get what you say But i think the regions are simplyfying a little bit, im not just going by background flux / C-M Activity That would be more discouraging for us who like big flares, and definitely a bad sign! Fingers crossed for redevelopment... I'd love to see something good out of 3182, since it's almost directly Earth-facing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: don't forget that even big complex regions can have quiet periods! I've seen regions being inactive for 24h with very complex magnetic layout and strong shear (and they popped a big X out of it 😉 ). Many times it's better to have a big good long duration flare than many short lived and impulsive flares because those don't deliver much. So it's not if they are quiet that it is bad. As long as there are delta's in the game, strong flares can happen. Quiet complex sunspots have the biggest chance of throwing powerful solar storms. The bastille day event came from a quiet complex region. Edited January 10, 2023 by SpaceWeather5464 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Quiet complex sunspots have the biggest chance of throwing powerful solar storms. The bastille day event came from a quiet complex region. But since there are no deltas anymore according to @mozy @Vancanneyt Sander and my observation, is it still complex? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) M 5.6 flare 😎 Edited January 11, 2023 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, mozy said: M 5.6 flare 😎 I thought the deltas were gone. i was just looking at it like 30 mins earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Glad to see this AR joining in, can't let 3186 have all the fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I thought the deltas were gone. i was just looking at it like 30 mins earlier There is possibly still a very faint one in the same ring I pointed out in earlier, but it really doesn't look like it so idk. Sometimes the regions do whatever they feel like despite how they look Edited January 11, 2023 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, mozy said: There is possibly still a very faint one in the same ring I pointed out in earlier, but it really doesn't look like it so idk. Sometimes the regions do whatever they feel like despite how they look true, i think m class flares dont require deltas at all, or atleast not strong ones. i remember an m class flare from a plage a year back or so lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I have nothing specific to add to to the discussion, but I just wanted to chime in and say that I'm really enjoying the fascinating and enlightening discussions going on in this thread. Fun to see the forum activity pick up as soon as the sun starts getting interesting. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: But since there are no deltas anymore according to @mozy @Vancanneyt Sander and my observation, is it still complex? Sunspots change a lot they can grow it back sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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