Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Well, the M8 flare CME is at least visible in C3 all the way around in differenced imagery. If we are hit, we may only get a shorter lived shock. The bulk of the CME that is missing us looks a lot faster than what the models show currently, so I guess we wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 UPDATE: A G2 watch has been added for Tuesday morning due to the consensus of CME arrival at or near earth tomorrow evening from 3113’s CME yesterday morning around 13 UTC. Protons on a slow, steady rise already may be an indicator. Also, X flare probabilities are now 30%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said: UPDATE: A G2 watch has been added for Tuesday morning due to the consensus of CME arrival at or near earth tomorrow evening from 3113’s CME yesterday morning around 13 UTC. Protons on a slow, steady rise already may be an indicator. Also, X flare probabilities are now 30%! Do you really think any cme will arrive? Also i think this region just produced an x class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xavier Stanton Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 X1.03 flare from 3110. It also looks like 3112 flared as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 X CLASS. LET’S GO. AFTER ALONG TIME. Since may Dang it’s been awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Man this region really is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 The CME from this one looks close to the last one, but a more powerful shock. The bulk of the CME looks to be going northwestward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME from this one looks close to the last one, but a more powerful shock. The bulk of the CME looks to be going northwestward again. CME definitely looks like a miss. Interestingly though, look at the massive shockwave sent across the surface of the sun all the way to the North Pole! It’s visible in dimming and Angstroms 195 36 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Do you really think any cme will arrive? Also i think this region just produced an x class I think a CME will likely arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Someone needs to do a brief up on this region as to why & how it's behaving like it is, certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, mozy said: Someone needs to do a brief up on this region as to why & how it's behaving like it is, certainly interesting. I would… if I knew why!! Maybe even the experts don’t know, idk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlikeAuroras Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, mozy said: Someone needs to do a brief up on this region as to why & how it's behaving like it is, certainly interesting. AR3110 is a crazy region It was just a little region yesterday then it unexpectedly became a complex region, which then shot out an X-flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, IlikeAuroras said: AR3110 is a crazy region It was just a little region yesterday then it unexpectedly became a complex region, which then shot out an X-flare Yeah, that’s new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, IlikeAuroras said: It was just a little region yesterday then it unexpectedly became a complex region, which then shot out an X-flare Yeah, these new sunspots didn't even exist starting out the first day of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Yeah, these new sunspots didn't even exist starting out the first day of the month. They literally came out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 And again the same as the last, there is an Earth-directed component seen in SOHO's C2 imagery. The bulk going northwest and the rest is really dull and hard to see in imagery. Easier to see than the last CME though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carfteh Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, mozy said: Someone needs to do a brief up on this region as to why & how it's behaving like it is, certainly interesting. Maybe it has to do with magnetic shear? if anyone has a link to a map of it I would love to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 (edited) It’s likely that there was a lot of complexity going on under the surface where we couldn’t see it. That’s my guess. But that’s something experts don’t even have a good understanding of. I think it’s sorta why every region gets at least a 1% chance for x flares, because you never know how complex it might actually be. Edited October 3, 2022 by Calder Added to my thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 I didnt know Beta classes were capable of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Following the M5.8 and M8.7 flares, AR 13110 produced an X1.0 flare. These three flares were similar. They were from the newly developed region to the north of the main leading spot, and associated with surge-like eruptions. These type of events are known as spray surges. The activity of this region was also due in part to the reverse polarity or anti hale tendencies the spot showed initially with the majority of the negative polarity in the north heing surrounded by positive polarity. The inversion line was fairly long producing two major flares according to Solen. N. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Newbie said: Following the M5.8 and M8.7 flares, AR 13110 produced an X1.0 flare. These three flares were similar. They were from the newly developed region to the north of the main leading spot, and associated with surge-like eruptions. These type of events are known as spray surges. The activity of this region was also due in part to the reverse polarity or anti hale tendencies the spot showed initially with the majority of the negative polarity in the north heing surrounded by positive polarity. The inversion line was fairly long producing two major flares according to Solen. N. Awesome explanation Newbie. Love it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 a nice looking LDE. M3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 WRT 3110, there has been a considerable amount of sigmoid activity within this AR. Sigmoid activity refers to the twisting of ropes of magnetic flux, often a precursor to explosions. It's worthwhile to note, conversely, that up until this point 3112 has not registered any sigmoid activity. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 It appears that the X flare from 3110 had a faint White Light flare associated with it, i will have videos soon got to figure out how to get them on here i do not know if this is normal or not as i have not learned much about them yet, but i have not detected them in other flares so idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, farm24 said: It appears that the X flare from 3110 had a faint White Light flare associated with it, i will have videos soon got to figure out how to get them on here i do not know if this is normal or not as i have not learned much about them yet, but i have not detected them in other flares so idk How did you detect it? Arent white light flares extremely powerful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 45 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: How did you detect it? Arent white light flares extremely powerful? There was a burst of light on the SDO white light HMI Intensitygram couldent remember the name lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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