Drax Spacex Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Strom said: Looks like it was pretty strong; must the the M8.9 just reported. Interesting - the eruption I saw was a precursor to this flare. The flare was just "getting ready." There was another, stronger eruption ( narrower, more focused?) along with the flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: The first CME that was launching may have triggered the M-Class flare launching the 2nd CME. Huh, interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: That’s definitely true. What caused the second one? Was it this flare? Yep! 2nd one was direclty associated with the explosion on the sun. The first preceded the flare 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, Landon Moeller said: Yep! 2nd one was direclty associated with the explosion on the sun. The first preceded the flare Cool! That’s rather interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: For sure. 1st one looked more like a bubble CME and has the better chance to hit near earth. I'll say the major one directly associated with the M8.7 flare is a miss https://gyazo.com/dba9ac89c031149698ff969d9c0e4e58 Yes, it seems to directly shoot upwards. Does the first CME look good? Can you maybe show me? (jsut woke up , almost missing all the fun!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: jsut woke up , almost missing all the fun! GET UP EARLIER No I’m kidding 🤣 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: GET UP EARLIER No I’m kidding 🤣 😂 its 5am, i feel like a grandma already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: also @Orneno please keep me updated! Where do you look for dimmings and eruptiveness? https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: https://gyazo.com/dba9ac89c031149698ff969d9c0e4e58 Yes, it seems to directly shoot upwards. Does the first CME look good? Can you maybe show me? (jsut woke up , almost missing all the fun!) Here's the first CME in Angstroms 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: its 5am, i feel like a grandma already You get up earlier than me. I get up at 6am lmao. anyways you almost missed out on everything lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, Landon Moeller said: Here's the first CME in Angstroms 195 Do you think it goes Northward as well, like the 2nd? I actually say based on suvi/SDO data that the CME from the M8 Flare is a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Do you think it goes Northward as well, like the 2nd? I actually say based on suvi/SDO data that the CME from the M8 Flare is a complete miss I think the first one is more likely to get near earth. The M8 flare is 99.9% chance a miss haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said: I think the first one is more likely to get near earth. The M8 flare is 99.9% chance a miss haha. Im looking at the magnetogram and im trying to wrap my head around that region producing 2 moderate - strong flares. but ive also seen 1-2 times that a plage fires off a high C/ Low M class flare so never say never lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: I think the first one is more likely to get near earth. The M8 flare is 99.9% chance a miss haha. The first CME may not make it very far though. The CHs may have blocked most of the shock of the 2nd CME, so we will need to wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The first CME may not make it very far though. The CHs may have blocked most of the shock of the 2nd CME, so we will need to wait and see. Oh interesting thanks! That makes perfect sense and would explain why the flare ejections look so focused in one direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yak Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 I have a question, how come we have got 2 M5+ flares from 3110, but nothing on the BGD ar 3112? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Yak said: I have a question, how come we have got 2 M5+ flares from 3110, but nothing on the BGD ar 3112? SWPC says 3110 may have a reverse polarity configuration developing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlikeAuroras Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 AR3110 is doing some impressive feats like shooting out 2 M-flares, both M5.9 and M8.8, 6 hours apart, while only having <1% chance of shooting out an M-flare the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 There is a slight Earth-directed component to the CME. Pretty dull and hard to see in C2 imagery so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There is a slight Earth-directed component to the CME. Pretty dull and hard to see in C2 imagery so far. STEREO so far. Looks north and west, but hopefully we see enough east component in lasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: STEREO so far. Looks north and west, but hopefully we see enough east component in lasco didnt it deflect to the northwest completly? do you expect a glancing blow now? Solarham said "The M8.7 solar flare earlier around AR 3110 flung a tower of plasma into space. Much of this will likely be reabsorbed by the Sun, however any plasma that does escape in the form of a CME will likely be minor and directed away from our planet. Image by GOES-16 SUVI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: STEREO so far. Looks north and west, but hopefully we see enough east component in lasco Woops, meant SOHO's C2. It isn't all in C3 imagery yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Yak said: I have a question, how come we have got 2 M5+ flares from 3110, but nothing on the BGD ar 3112? It's simply not always as easy at looking at the designation/configuration of a spot, but it's generally a good indication. That being said, I believe 3112 did have an M-flare as it came over the limb, and it's been "brewing" with C-flares lately, so we're hopefully going to see a bit more activity from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: It's simply not always as easy at looking at the designation/configuration of a spot, but it's generally a good indication. That being said, I believe 3112 did have an M-flare as it came over the limb, and it's been "brewing" with C-flares lately, so we're hopefully going to see a bit more activity from it. Flare probs for The Whole disk are 99/60/25/25 this morning. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe these are some of the highest numbers in months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Just now, Landon Moeller said: Flare probs for The Whole disk are 99/60/25/25 this morning. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe these are some of the highest numbers in months? You know…I think you’re right. Let me double check. Only for sunspots I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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