Region 3014: biggest AR of the SC!

[mozy]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

likely some magnetic field snapped . It sure was a non eruptive event as well. 

I watched as it was happening live, looked like two events near the same place, slow rise, then it spread around and lit the whole area up & it started rising quicker after.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, mozy zei:

I watched as it was happening live, looked like two events near the same place, slow rise, then it spread around and lit the whole area up & it started rising quicker after.

Magnetic field lines between regions, that can explain it indeed.

[MinYoongi]

53 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Magnetic field lines between regions, that can explain it indeed.

Does that happen often?

And thank you for explaining the delta thing 🙂

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Spots of opposite polarity inside the penumbral area. That's the rule, so if you applu it we have three deltas inside the region with a small but strong one (magnetic shear) and two big delta spots.

it's attributed to 3017, which is an odd one as it's a simple region. 

One question, do you maybe know why Noaa assigned the region only 1% for an X class? Also, do you mean its 1 good and 2 meh deltas? If so, which one of them to cheer for?

[Vince]

HI,

 

it is really a great view ... 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Vince

[mozy]

Another M-flare kicking up

An underwhelming one 😆

[MinYoongi]

21 minutes ago, mozy said:

Another M-flare kicking up

An underwhelming one 😆

I thought it will go above M1. what was the peak? M1.1. I jinxed it 😛

is it uneruptive like the last 2?

[MinYoongi]

is there a reason the X-Ray Flux is now returning to a 3-Day Low after the M Class flare? 

 

Speculation : The Delta in the middle *seems* to be weakening, i await more imagery though.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

46 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

is there a reason the X-Ray Flux is now returning to a 3-Day Low after the M Class flare? 

 

Speculation : The Delta in the middle *seems* to be weakening, i await more imagery though.

It’s still complex enough for strong eruptions weather but even complex regions can often be quiet and sometimes don’t pop. 

and no, it’s not weakening, enough spots in the mix  

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

It’s still complex enough for strong eruptions weather but even complex regions can often be quiet and sometimes don’t pop. 

and no, it’s not weakening, enough spots in the mix  

 i just saw in the magnetogram that its not as big anymore and the blue spec almost disappeared compared to a few hours back. i would consider that weakening? 

is there still a good shear going on? 

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

38 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 i just saw in the magnetogram that its not as big anymore and the blue spec almost disappeared compared to a few hours back. i would consider that weakening? 

is there still a good shear going on? 

 

A new one has popped up and the bigger ones get closer as well so enough in the mix for M-class flares. Shear isn’t that strong so only slight chance for X-class.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

A new one has popped up and the bigger ones get closer as well so enough in the mix for M-class flares. Shear isn’t that strong so only slight chance for X-class.

Thank you  

Theres also something i read that may be interesting for you and the others following that sunspot. I sometimes read the MetOffice Spaceweather Forecast, its the UK equivalent of Noaa.

 

"There are now up to nine sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun. It is not yet clear whether there may be a transfer of power in terms of most active group in this forecast period, with the largest X-ray flare coming to the east of the largest spot and not the group itself, perhaps indicating some shift in the underlying 'hot spot'. The southern and western portions of the area responsible for the biggest flare saw a rapid growth trend in the past 24 hours, but with this trend stalling late in the period."

 

they talk about the M5 flare from 3017, or between the regions. 

38 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

A new one has popped up and the bigger ones get closer as well so enough in the mix for M-class flares. Shear isn’t that strong so only slight chance for X-class.

btw, how does one notice shear in the magnetogram/intensigram?

[noplasma]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

btw, how does one notice shear in the magnetogram/intensigram?

I figured it's assessed by the extent that the delta spot's prior/nominal shape distorts/distends once having approached closer to the region of opposite polarity, but would love to hear what the seasoned veterans here have to say.

3014 seems exceptional in terms of its size, polarity strength, and adjacency of opposites compared to the regions that have been discussed here these past few months, although it sounds like it's the deltas (and not really the huge & proximal beta portion) that really drive the magnetic complexity.  Perhaps this is akin to a wall thundercloud that's ripe for developing a tornado (aka a decently sized delta)?   At least it's still central so there's ample time yet to watch for further developments.

 

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, noplasma said:

I figured it's assessed by the extent that the delta spot's prior/nominal shape distorts/distends once having approached closer to the region of opposite polarity, but would love to hear what the seasoned veterans here have to say.

3014 seems exceptional in terms of its size, polarity strength, and adjacency of opposites compared to the regions that have been discussed here these past few months, although it sounds like it's the deltas (and not really the huge & proximal beta portion) that really drive the magnetic complexity.  Perhaps this is akin to a wall thundercloud that's ripe for developing a tornado (aka a decently sized delta)?   At least it's still central so there's ample time yet to watch for further developments.

 

Im sorry but im way too inexperienced with space weather and especially sunspots + their assignment to understand even 50% of your lingo right now. 

 

I think youre trying to say it could develop a good Delta in its middle? 

 

(Again, this is no offense and im sorry, but this is way too high for me  )

[noplasma]

40 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Im sorry but im way too inexperienced with space weather and especially sunspots + their assignment to understand even 50% of your lingo right now. 

 

I think youre trying to say it could develop a good Delta in its middle? 

 

(Again, this is no offense and im sorry, but this is way too high for me  )

Well, I was inferring that it's a region ripe for developing a decent delta spot but I'm just a spectator (no expert).

Edited May 20, 2022 by noplasma

[Newbie]

Hello Min,

The greatest shear is when the deep red bits are pushed up against the deep blue bits, nothing separating them, in the magnetogram.

Newbie

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Min,

The greatest shear is when the deep red bits are pushed up against the deep blue bits, nothing separating them, in the magnetogram.

Newbie

Thanks!

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Min,

The greatest shear is when the deep red bits are pushed up against the deep blue bits, nothing separating them, in the magnetogram.

Newbie

Thank you! Is that the case right now? or not quite? i think its still some air between them

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! Is that the case right now? or not quite? i think its still some air between them

The shear between the SW delta and it's main spot has lessened, but the shear between the primary cores seems high, they seem to be moving closer together

[MinYoongi]

 

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

The shear between the SW delta and it's main spot has lessened, but the shear between the primary cores seems high, they seem to be moving closer together

but the cores are not deltas, right? 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Orneno

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

but the cores are not deltas, right? 

Correct, their umbras are not within the other’s penumbra, they each have their own, although they are squished up against each other 

This spot appears to be the biggest AR of SC25 so far!

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I think its still some air between them

The gaps that exist between red cores and blue cores are areas of lower magnetism (magnetic flux). Deep blue is strongly negative magnetism (magnetic flux) and is said to be of negative polarity, deep red is strongly positive magnetism (magnetic flux) and is said to be of positive polarity. The 'in between' colours paler reds and blues indicate a weakening of the magnetism, wheras yellow and green are neutral or relatively low magnetism.

Newbie

[mozy]

Oddly silent..

[MinYoongi]

Thats why im asking if it gained or losed strength.

[mozy]

Here we go

Already seems to be peaking at M3.0

Damn a really impulsive one, going down so fast already 😝

[MinYoongi]

Wow, ya'll gonna be pissed because it was very impulsive and peaked quick in the mid M range, but im actually surprised

Btw @Orneno did someone rename my Topic? Thats nice