(New) CME impact

[Sam Warfel]

13 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

The initial impact was very lackluster but we are now for sure inside the core of a CME. Not looking bad at all, didn't expect this! Lets hope for Kp4 or perhaps even Kp5.

Oh yeah it’s kicked up nicely, guess I dismissed it too soon. KP5 at least, probably KP6

Since the Hemispheric Power is at 90+

[Isatsuki San]

57 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Oh, sí, está muy bien, supongo que lo descarté demasiado pronto. KP5 al menos, probablemente KP6

Dado que el poder hemisférico está en 90+

consider a 40 percent probability of kp6 but nothing more, although the bz to the south this must take time, there is not much solar wind or such a considerable deity to feed a g2 geomathenic storm, I think just a g1, but it's my point of view,

[LunarLights58]

We hit Kp5 and hemispheric power of 100, as well as consistently moderate south Bz. If only I could see the aurora now...

Edited February 10, 2022 by LunarLights58

[Sam Warfel]

54 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

We hit Kp5 and hemispheric power of 100, as well as consistently moderate south Bz. If only I could see the aurora now...

I know, right 😭😭

saaame

[Drax Spacex]

From the real time solar wind data there seems to be a direct correlation between -Bz and Kp index.  Of course we know this, but the IMF -Bz value seems to be the dominant factor.   Speed, density, and temperature, which we pay close attention to, do not seem to matter much in relation to Kp index, at least not for the recent geomagnetic storms from this month.

The OVATION model in the past 4 hours showed hemispheric power increased from about 20 to 100.  During that time speed didn't change much and density dropped precipitously.  IMF and -Bz in particular increased during that time.  I don't know about OVATION, but it appears that it too  uses IMF -Bz value as the most highly weighted input in its model of hemispheric power.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Drax Spacex
OVATION