Sam Warfel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) The CME from the long duration M1 has arrived. Not amazing, but decent. Speed to 500, density to 12, Bt to 15 and Bz to -12 south (but has since gone north). Possible for G1 in the hours ahead. Sadly it's cloudy where I am, and I'd need G2 or higher anyway tbh 😭 Edited February 9, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWhiskey Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Do you think conditions will progress even further, or will that be it for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, SpaceWhiskey said: Do you think conditions will progress even further, or will that be it for now? For now the IMF has rotated much more northward than southward, so it appears it will not cause significant auroras. It could rotate south again, but isn’t looking to at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 What?! It's a whole day early and not even that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: What?! It's a whole day early and not even that good? It’s impossible to predict whether the IMF goes north or south. If it had been this strong but north instead of south, we would have gotten G1 and maybe G2. That’s why they are predicted maximums, not guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Wait, when was it supposed to arrive? 9 minutes ago, Orneno said: It’s impossible to predict whether the IMF goes north or south. If it had been this strong but north instead of south, we would have gotten G1 and maybe G2. That’s why they are predicted maximums, not guarantees. What'd you say about it not going south? Because it's going south right now Nevermind. It's still north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Wait, when was it supposed to arrive? What'd you say about it not going south? Because it's going south right now Nevermind. It's still north. Yeah, it’s dipped a bit south a few times, but not very far. You can see just looking at the graphs it’s been almost entirely northward since an initial spike south right after impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I have seen a few "stealth" geomagnetic disturbances over the last couple of months from ejecta or the IMF, more likely than not. I wonder if this is one such experience, so I wouldn't dash our hopes quite yet for the predicted impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Christopher S. said: I have seen a few "stealth" geomagnetic disturbances over the last couple of months from ejecta or the IMF, more likely than not. I wonder if this is one such experience, so I wouldn't dash our hopes quite yet for the predicted impact. This has all the earmarks of the CME, and I didn’t think there were Amy others, but yes, recently (last few months) there’s sometimes been so much activity it’s hard to tell what came from what sometimes. Not a bad problem to have, if one is a northern lights hunter, but vexing if a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The Bz is now slightly south and the hemispheric power is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 hours ago, Orneno said: This has all the earmarks of the CME, and I didn’t think there were Amy others, but yes, recently (last few months) there’s sometimes been so much activity it’s hard to tell what came from what sometimes. Not a bad problem to have, if one is a northern lights hunter, but vexing if a forecaster. Truly. I usually remark on things that make forecasting or communication somewhat cumbersome, but this time I'd like to share that my confidence level in the forecast is lower than nominal based on the recent patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, LunarLights58 said: The Bz is now slightly south and the hemispheric power is rising. It seemed like sparking up for a while, but has rotated solidly north again. Didn't last long enough for much to happen. 47 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: Truly. I usually remark on things that make forecasting or communication somewhat cumbersome, but this time I'd like to share that my confidence level in the forecast is lower than nominal based on the recent patterns. It is unusual that it's so early, but so weak/slow. We might get our answers if another CME arrives today, or we may not, and have to look elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It's all about the Bz in this case and with all CME geomagnetic storm predictions. Predicted geomagnetic strength can never can be considered "high confidence" because Bz polarity cannot be predicted. In this case, impressive CME but +Bz=dud, no geomagnetic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: It's all about the Bz in this case and with all CME geomagnetic storm predictions. Predicted geomagnetic strength can never can be considered "high confidence" because Bz polarity cannot be predicted. In this case, impressive CME but +Bz=dud, no geomagnetic storm. What would you say made this an “impressive” CME? As I recall, the solar wind speed, density, and BT were all pretty moderate. Not even 600km/s on the speed maybe? The BZ was pretty strong and consistently northward, if it was exactly the same but south it would have been decently significant, but in my opinion that’s the only thing at all remarkable about this CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The CME looked impressive when it erupted. Full halo and the difference image animations made it apprear "impressive." Difference image animations, while they make for impressive YouTube Twitter and facebook posts, they can skew the impression that a CME may be stronger than it really is. Structure and contrast are enhanced at the expense of original absolute image brightness / intensity information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: The CME looked impressive when it erupted. Full halo and the difference image animations made it apprear "impressive." Difference image animations, while they make for impressive YouTube Twitter and facebook posts, they can skew the impression that a CME may be stronger than it really is. Structure and contrast are enhanced at the expense of original absolute image brightness / intensity information. Ahh, I thought you meant the initial arrival data. Yes it was a nice halo, although seemed a bit slow (all the more odd it arrived early, so it seems) Edit: I think the CME may have just hit, 23:30. Still not very impressive. Edited February 3, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 I think this new CME impact is what propelled the hemispheric power to 55, happening right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Orneno said: I think the CME may have just hit, 23:30. This one is more of a match to a weak-ish CH entry. It is better seen in SOHO's solar wind data, http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/ and DSCOVR not including an IMF shock. Edited February 3, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It seems that I come after the party, but 18 bz to the south and hesmeferic power to the south almost at 150, possible geomathenic storm g2, but I wonder, does anyone know why the geomathenic conditions occurred repeatedly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Oh great, it seems like a decent storm happened after all, while I was sleeping of course 😡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Oh great, it seems like a decent storm happened after all, while I was sleeping of course 😡 Welcome to my luck I missed it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 36 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Oh genial, parece que sucedió una tormenta decente después de todo, mientras dormía, por supuesto 😡 I woke up at the time of bz 18 heading south, and it seems that it's over anyway, calm down it was just a g1 so there was nothing to miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: g1 so there was nothing to miss G2* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 49 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: g1 so there was nothing to miss I would've seen it anyway, because G1 is when I start to see the aurora. The hemispheric power was wayyy above just a G1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: This one is more of a match to a weak-ish CH entry. It is better seen in SOHO's solar wind data, http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/ and DSCOVR not including an IMF shock. Could a “weak CH entry” really have driven the BZ south to -18? It’s quite significant, hemispheric power reached a 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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