Christopher S. Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 As expected, second impact. It resembles the ferocity of the CME we saw in LASCO+moderately south IMF, so this is the one that was predicted/being discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Christopher S. said: As expected, second impact. It resembles the ferocity of the CME we saw in LASCO+moderately south IMF, so this is the one that was predicted/being discussed I’d tend to agree with you that this was much more of a halo CME impact, it being later than expected makes more sense than being early. Which of course leaves open the question of where the first impact came from, as you rightly predicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 11:02 PM, Orneno said: This has all the earmarks of the CME, and I didn’t think there were Amy others, but yes, recently (last few months) there’s sometimes been so much activity it’s hard to tell what came from what sometimes. Not a bad problem to have, if one is a northern lights hunter, but vexing if a forecaster. Orneno, you have led me into thinking the CME was a dud, and so I gave up on trying to see the aurorae, despite the real one not having arrived until last night. 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Orneno, you have led me into thinking the CME was a dud, and so I gave up on trying to see the aurorae, despite the real one not having arrived until last night. 😞 Sorry 😭😭 I was mistaken 😔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Orneno said: Could a “weak CH entry” really have driven the BZ south to -18? It’s quite significant, hemispheric power reached a 150 At random, it might as well be possible. The CH HHS entry was around that time of /02 23:30Z, along with another at around /03 13:00Z. In SOHO's solar wind proton density data you can see the increase prior. With some solar wind data somethings being unreliable and some not available as often(ACE, Wind) doesn't help too much heading deeper into the solar cycle. Edited February 3, 2022 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) For armchair space weather enthusiasts keeping score at home, this would be tallied as a SWPC prediction miss. The actual G1 (Feb 03) occurred after the G1/G2 storm watch was cancelled: Space Weather Message Code: WATA30 Serial Number: 200 Issue Time: 2022 Feb 02 1914 UTC CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Cancel Serial Number: 199 Original Issue Time: 2022 Jan 31 1954 UTC Comment: Cancelling the G2 (Moderate) watch for 2 Feb and the G1 Watch for 3 Feb. No watches are now in effect. So what went wrong here? Anything? Nothing? Satisfactory prediction within a reasonable margin of error? Good enough for government work? Was the observed G1 a consequence of the CME that was the subject of the G1/G2 storm watch? Or was it something else, a follow-on CIR>CH HSS perhaps? Is it possible to even know? Is there a postmortem review that occurs behind-closed-doors to review such questions and brainstorm possible answers? Was it insufficient data? Was it flawed modeling? Was it incorrect input conditions provided to the WSA-Enil model e.g. perhaps a dot product along the earth-directed vector needs to be added to the of calculation of estimated CME speed from coronagraph imagery? Bueller? Bueller? Edited February 4, 2022 by Drax Spacex observed G1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: So what went wrong here? We don't know what is coming. Multiple satellites orbiting near the Sun would probably be needed to get the needed observations. Look at an imagery loop of SDOs 211 imagery though, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vOM4hZKkNZlwk4dHyJT8_roY7ODM1ILq/view?usp=sharing. (Forgot the timestamps) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bGKkQdPnXRLXbiBR42tja1uTFKwneXI0/view?usp=sharing 52 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Was the observed G1 a consequence of the CME that was the subject of the G1/G2 storm watch? Yes. Edited February 4, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Yes How can you say so with such certainty? Or that just your personal guess? (For the record, I agree, I think the G1/150 hemispheric power storm was from the predicted CME from the long-duration M1, but I can’t prove it is all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NightOwl Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Does SWPC release any sort of official analysis after a geomagnetic storm saying what they think produced that storm? Also, did anyone on here see the aurora last night? It was completely cloudy near me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Orneno said: How can you say so with such certainty? Or that just your personal guess? It had a classic impact at DSCOVR at /01 21:36Z and ACE at /01 21:35Z. The IMF Bt component, velocity, density, and temperature all spiked up simultaneously. The easy way to prove it was the CME that launched late on the 29th and not another is that there were no other anywhere near significant CMEs before or after it launched. To compare data I have though, for a CME with a travel time of 71 hours it had rather high solar wind velocities. Though in the higher range of velocities, it was within the reasonable range for its travel time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: We don't know what is coming. Multiple satellites orbiting near the Sun would probably be needed to get the needed observations. Let's go back in time and order $11 billion worth of those Sun satellites instead of the Webb telescope. What is happening now, near by, is more important than what was happening a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. Your movie does show that things were very busy over the last week. There may have been an intermingling of multiple components - with perhaps a torsional, helical propagation that may have increased its effective pathlength to Earth and slowed it down. The arrival of the CME was about 24 hours later than predicted, which is a pretty big miss. This seems to indicate to me that the Earth-bound CME speed was overestimated as input into the models. 7 minutes ago, NightOwl said: Does SWPC release any sort of official analysis after a geomagnetic storm saying what they think produced that storm? Also, did anyone on here see the aurora last night? It was completely cloudy near me Sometimes their Forecast Discussion will reflect on recent activity, the most recent citing "CME driver influence." Because it's rather free-form, the extent of elaboration and detail in the Forecast Discussion depends on the forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: The arrival of the CME was about 24 hours later than predicted A lot of the predictions were actually really close for the arrival. With how slow the CME was, in theory the chance of error would be higher. Edited February 4, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) It already seems to be stopping but the maximum was 108 hemispheric potential and it seems like it's slowly going down, if it increases again, I'll edit this Edited February 4, 2022 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 8 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: A lot of the predictions were actually really close for the arrival. With how slow the CME was, in theory the chance of error would be higher. On review I see that now - there was the initial bump in solar wind data around Feb 2 00:00 UT which was likely the predicted CME arrival. The second event (or the burgeoning evolution of the initial event into a solar storm) began at about Feb 3 00:00 UT. It is curious that the plasma density was sustained for several days and didn't drop off after CME arrival. This is like a Kobayashi Maru test trying to analyze and correlate coronograph, solar wind, and terrestrial observations. The results, data, and answers are often fuzzy, and a definitive answer, inscrutable. The one certainty is the appearance of three Klingon battle cruisers at the end of the simulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Isatsuki San said: It already seems to be stopping but the maximum was 108 hemispheric potential and it seems like it's slowly going down, if it increases again, I'll edit this What caused this 100 hemispheric power storm last night? Surely not another CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Orneno said: ¿Qué causó esta tormenta de poder hemisférico 100 anoche? Seguramente no otro CME ? I think that maybe this time it could be the coronal hole or just a solar wind impact that appears in the WSA ENLID solar wind prediction, and that the bz to the south increased the hemispheric power, since when it was at 107, it did not a geomagnetic storm was still mounted, only a weak cme, but it seems that the bz is right now almost 10 south, so the geomagnetic storm will continue a bit but in simple words I don't know, but there are some pages that say that the corona hole wind is possibly going to come on the 5th or 6th, so it will probably be that, but I don't know Edited February 4, 2022 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 hours ago, Orneno said: What caused this 100 hemispheric power storm last night? Surely not another CME? ok, you already said why that happened, it was a secondary effect of the cme impact of February 1, as it was keeping the bz to the south, it caused an open crack and the cracks fed the geomagnetic storm, causing the hesmispheric potential to increase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Talking about CME impact, have you seen the Enlil Model for todays CME from a nice filament eruption? 4 Days seems pretty "long" for me, but it looks dense and also very likely a full on hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 days is not unreasonable, the CME wasn't that fast. That said, while I do think it is earth-directed, the CME was very faint and I do not expect much from it when it arrives at our planet. Just need to be honest, we cant go and hype every small CME that leaves the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Is this that CME expected today? It's pretty pathetic if it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Orneno said: Is this that CME expected today? It's pretty pathetic if it is It could be the predicted one, but don't call it weak yet if it is. It has only just arrived and its passage will take a while, meaning that the core of it is still coming. Edited February 9, 2022 by LunarLights58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 46 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: It could be the predicted one, but don't call it weak yet if it is. It has only just arrived and its passage will take a while, meaning that the core of it is still coming. Yeah it seems to be the predicted one, but it’s still pretty darn weak. The solar wind speed didn’t even top 450. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Overall I would think the threshold for a decent CME would be within 60 hours of travel time. 48 hours moderate, 36 hours significant, 24 hours extreme. Given a direct hit, 410-420km/s is really good for ~78 hours of travel time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The hemispheric power is climbing and Bz is moderately south. Unfortunately for me, it's both daytime and snowing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The initial impact was very lackluster but we are now for sure inside the core of a CME. Not looking bad at all, didn't expect this! Lets hope for Kp4 or perhaps even Kp5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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