Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, LunarLights58 said: Uh, no. The Sun takes about 25-35 days to rotate once. Oh my bad, I know the sun takes about a month or so to rotate, I just didn't know if those were the same regions. My bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 AR2924 is definitely developing nicely, it’s tripled in size in the last few days since appearing over the limb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 hours ago, Orneno said: Still pretty bright and nice looping, what makes it not conducive to development? The synoptic map was showing very large areas of negative polarity, and only limited areas of positive polarity, thus limited opportunity for spots to develop. The more boundaries existing between positive and negative fields, the greater possibility for larger number of spots. Additionally the 10.7cm flux was still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 hours ago, 3gMike said: Additionally the 10.7cm flux was still dropping. Is it now rising due to AR 2924? And the other AR? 14 hours ago, Orneno said: AR2924 is definitely developing nicely, it’s tripled in size in the last few days since appearing over the limb! Let’s hope it turns into a huge sunspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Let’s hope it turns into a huge sunspot. Not to mention the two bright regions about to rotate onto the disk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Is it now rising due to AR 2924? And the other AR? Yes, it is. It looks increasingly likely that the bright region in the southern hemisphere could be AR2907 returning. Hopefully it will make an appearance during tomorrow (8th), or it may slip into the early hours of the 9th. Last time around it was consistently Beta-Gamma, and produced a total of 55 C class flares, so it would be good if that can be repeated (or bettered?) It is also possible that it will be followed by AR2908. Whilst that region was not so complex, and left the west limb as an Alpha, it did produce a couple of M class flares last time round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: Yes, it is. It looks increasingly likely that the bright region in the southern hemisphere could be AR2907 returning. Hopefully it will make an appearance during tomorrow (8th), or it may slip into the early hours of the 9th. Last time around it was consistently Beta-Gamma, and produced a total of 55 C class flares, so it would be good if that can be repeated (or bettered?) It is also possible that it will be followed by AR2908. Whilst that region was not so complex, and left the west limb as an Alpha, it did produce a couple of M class flares last time round. The one in the northern hemisphere is probably new though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Orneno said: The one in the northern hemisphere is probably new though, right? I think so, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, 3gMike said: I think so, yes. The only northern hemisphere spots I remember going over the western limb recently were decaying and dead. Interestingly, so far this cycle has been heavily biased towards the southern hemisphere of the sun. Is that normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 57 minutes ago, Orneno said: The only northern hemisphere spots I remember going over the western limb recently were decaying and dead. Interestingly, so far this cycle has been heavily biased towards the southern hemisphere of the sun. Is that normal? It is true to say that the southern hemisphere is currently more active than the northern. That is to say there have been fewer ARs in the northern hemisphere (73 vs 99 in the south). My impression is that these regions have also been less active, but I would need to spend some time to confirm that. Another indicator is that mean interval between ARs during first year was 64days in North and 36days in South, compared with 7.3 days North and 5 days South in the second year. I would need to review previous cycles before commenting on how this has varied in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, 3gMike said: It is true to say that the southern hemisphere is currently more active than the northern. That is to say there have been fewer ARs in the northern hemisphere (73 vs 99 in the south). My impression is that these regions have also been less active, but I would need to spend some time to confirm that. Another indicator is that mean interval between ARs during first year was 64days in North and 36days in South, compared with 7.3 days North and 5 days South in the second year. I would need to review previous cycles before commenting on how this has varied in the past. We’ve had some M-flares from the north, but most of the ones I can recall are from the south, as are the largest and most active ARs. As a small example, both of our two X-class flares of this SC so far were from southern regions (I think that’s right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 look at these loops now! and on the far side map it looks big! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, farm24 said: look at these loops now! and on the far side map it looks big! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, farm24 said: look at these loops now! and on the far side map it looks big! Can’t wait to see the sunspots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 It looks like a region is just on the barely on the limb. My guess is that by tomorrow or very late today it will either be numbered or coming better into view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 17 hours ago, Orneno said: We’ve had some M-flares from the north, but most of the ones I can recall are from the south, as are the largest and most active ARs. As a small example, both of our two X-class flares of this SC so far were from southern regions (I think that’s right) I took some time to analyse flare data held in the Archive, and came up with some very interesting stats. Based on number of M&X flares it turns out that the Northern hemisphere has so far been more active than the south, and has also produced the largest flare (X1.59)in July 2021 ! The first M flare of this cycle was produced in the north in May 2020, followed by another in the south in November 2020. In total we have seen 16 M fares from the north, and 13 from the south. Those flares were associated with only 8 ARs in each hemisphere. For the period April 19th to August 28th 2021 there were 7 flares in the north, and only 2 in the south, but for the period September 23rd to December 28th there were 8 in the north, compared to 10 in the south. For the whole cycle to date 11% of all northern ARs have produced M flares, compared to 8% for the south. So this seems to indicate that we need to ask ourselves what is the most appropriate measure to define hemispheric activity ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/7/2022 at 10:41 PM, Orneno said: Interestingly, so far this cycle has been heavily biased towards the southern hemisphere of the sun. Is that normal? Here is some data from SIDC/SILSO indicating variation in hemispheric contribution to sunspot number (13 month smoothing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The two new ARs have appeared over the eastern limb. They're HUGE. They're BRIGHT. Tons of loops, too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: The two new ARs have appeared over the eastern limb. They're HUGE. They're BRIGHT. Tons of loops, too! Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Let's hope for plenty of bright flares ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 uren geleden, LunarLights58 zei: They're HUGE. They're BRIGHT. Tons of loops, too! More faculae then spots though so it’s nothing to be excited about for now 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 1 uur terug, Vancanneyt Sander zei: More faculae then spots though so it’s nothing to be excited about for now 😉 A possible complex sunspot around 21-28 January. Will update on coming sunspots. Edited January 9, 2022 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 11 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: More faculae then spots though so it’s nothing to be excited about for now 😉 once again that was anti-climatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minuten geleden, farm24 zei: once again that was anti-climatic Another lesson learned: loops at the limb don’t say a thing about a possible sunspot region behind the limb as it can always be faculae. That’s why I never get excited when this happens 😉. I do get excited when you see the loops moving, CME’s hurled away just behind the limb, a rising flux when the region gets close to the limb with topped of C-level and limb flares. so another lesson learned only start a topic about new emerging “bright loops” when there is noticeable activity detected around the limb 😜 ps: hope I wasn’t too pessimistic 😇 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: ps: hope I wasn’t too pessimistic I hope it works as reverse psychology like last time you talked down to a faculae group and it became a large AR 😉 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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