goldminor Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 18 hours ago, Capricopia said: This paper looks at the growth rate in sunspot acitivy as an indicator for the strength of the following cycle. https://www.aanda.org/component/article?access=doi&doi=10.1051%2F0004-6361%2F202243509 and it deduces that SC25 will be weaker. Looking at the progression of SC 25 on the excellent Solen.info site (blocked by farceblock as spam) it looks like SC 14 which peaked at 107 sunspots is a likely model, both in terms of the amplitutude and symmetry in the hemishperes, Nice graphs, thanks. On 5/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, Archmonoth said: Climate change is not increased/affected by solar cycles, and if SC25 is stronger than SC24, this is not the cause of climate change. The causes of climate change are directly connected to pollution, fossil fuel consumption, and environmental disruption from human activity. Protecting the planet from what? I would disagree strongly with that sentiment, and I think that nature will prove that sentiment to be incorrect by the end of this decade. We shall both have to wait and see though on that score. Fortunately, my body continues to show amazing resilience. I actually feel now like I can make it to 2050+. I will be 100 in 2050. That would mean that I get to observe 3 more solar cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 I hope you make it then. Way to date yourself though. When I am 100, it will be the next century. That’s a fair number of solar cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 5 hours ago, goldminor said: I would disagree strongly with that sentiment, and I think that nature will prove that sentiment to be incorrect by the end of this decade. We shall both have to wait and see though on that score. Fortunately, my body continues to show amazing resilience. I actually feel now like I can make it to 2050+. I will be 100 in 2050. That would mean that I get to observe 3 more solar cycles. It's not a sentiment, its proven; humans are causing climate change. I digress, I am curious how you think nature will prove the sentiment incorrect by the end of the decade? How? what would that look like? Please illustrate this for me. When the solar cycle is ebbing, and the sunspots and flares are reduced, like around 2025-2030 and the world is still warming, then what? Or is climate change going to go down when the solar cycles winds down? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maurizio Marsigli Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 I wouldn't have too many certainties about the climate https://notrickszone.com/2022/02/06/the-ipcc-co2-climate-narrative-a-behemoth-on-clay-feet-ready-to-collapse/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Maurizio Marsigli said: I wouldn't have too many certainties about the climate https://notrickszone.com/2022/02/06/the-ipcc-co2-climate-narrative-a-behemoth-on-clay-feet-ready-to-collapse/ This link was a rhetorical argument against climate change. With phrases like "you would be astonished to know..." and "such weak foundations..." and even putting quotes around the words "THE SCIENCE" as if it was just speculation. There aren't many certainties on what will happen in the future, but we can measure the changes in pollution, we can see the forests get cut down, and we can watch the water reservoirs get consumed by nearby factories and agriculture. The Sun isn't using excess water to grow luxury plants and feed cows/pigs. The Sun isn't deforesting the Amazon, and the Sun isn't adding more Co2 into the atmosphere with factories. We can measure these things on Earth, and a change in the Solar Cycle isn't going to magically make these actions by humans go away or their consequences. Deforestation causes changes in environments, as does constant pollution. What study or group would you trust with evidence of this? Or do you think nothing we do has any effect on the planet? Edited August 5, 2022 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 (edited) On 11/30/2021 at 12:37 PM, Vancanneyt Sander said: We can only hope 😉 at least it can’t be any more worse than SC24… not only the SSN sucked, but barely any earthward directed CME’s, those where mostly destined for the farside and on the limb. If it was Earth directed, the weather sucked and if it was clear sky the IMF was northward. SC25 had a good start with some descent shows already. So we’re hopeful. PS: the strongest solar flares happen not on solar max but a bit after 😇 Personally, as a ham I have been awaiting another cycle 19 with a ssn of 201 I believe it was and on a Christmas day we nearly hit 400 SFI!! A truly awesome cycle indeed!! Edited November 4, 2022 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: Personally, as a ham I have been awaiting another cycle 19 with a ssn of 201 I believe it was and on a Christmas day we nearly hit 400 SFI!! A truly awesome cycle indeed!! Almost 400? Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Share Posted January 2, 2023 Looks like we got a new high for 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Keep on rockin’ Mr Sun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Not that far behind the maximum numbers of SC24 now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 1/7/2023 at 6:25 PM, Sam Warfel said: Not that far behind the maximum numbers of SC24 now! Might be ahead even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts