Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Orneno said: Very true and wise advice. And don’t get discouraged if you try to see Aurora and don’t, there will be many more opportunities over the next few years as it gets more and more active! Yeah that is what's so hard about being so far south is that I need a KP7 or more to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said: Yeah that is what's so hard about being so far south is that I need a KP7 or more to see something. Yeah, I need KP6 or 7. We’ll get it (and clear skies, favorable schedules, etc) eventually ❤️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Yeah that is what's so hard about being so far south is that I need a KP7 or more to see something. But a KP7 could happen in two days from a M class. Who knows! 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Yeah, I need KP6 or 7. We’ll get it (and clear skies, favorable schedules, etc) eventually ❤️ And that is just what the weather sometimes doesn't like to do: Be clear Edited December 3, 2021 by Solarflaretracker200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: But a KP7 could happen in two days from a M class. Who knows! And that is just what the weather sometimes doesn't like to do: Be clear I know bro, we had a KP6 in October and I saw beautiful photos from places further south than me but it was raining across my whole region 😭😭 Also during the G3 (kp7) I got sick and didn’t stay out long enough but could have seen them if I had, I saw beautiful photos from area then too 😭 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Orneno said: I know bro, we had a KP6 in October and I saw beautiful photos from places further south than me but it was raining across my whole region 😭😭 The weather can be our friend and our enemy sometimes. And sometimes we just like rain lol. 25 minutes ago, Orneno said: Also during the G3 (kp7) I got sick and didn’t stay out long enough but could have seen them if I had, I saw beautiful photos from area then too 😭 Dang. I was just….asleep then woke up and said “HOLY SH$& THERE IS A KP7” but I thought it wasn’t going to be seen so I said “well the aurora is probably not seen down here so I’ll just watch from the website” Haha I was wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) Update 1/12/22: Solar cycle 25 seems to be way stronger then expected according to spaceweather.com Maybe not way stronger but stronger then originally expected. Edit: I will be updating here when ever a new update happens. Edited January 12, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 uur terug, Solarflaretracker200 zei: Update 1/12/22: Solar cycle 25 seems to be way stronger then expected according to spaceweather.com Maybe not way stronger but stronger then originally expected. Currently yes but still doesn’t mean it will peak higher. We’re still early in the cycle so anything can happen but it’s in the good direction 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Currently yes but still doesn’t mean it will peak higher. We’re still early in the cycle so anything can happen but it’s in the good direction 😉 True, true. I hope Solar Cycle 25 is a stronger Solar Cycle then SC24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 7:29 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said: Update 1/12/22: Solar cycle 25 seems to be way stronger then expected according to spaceweather.com Maybe not way stronger but stronger then originally expected. Update 1/20/22: according to thealmanac.com they now say this: "Through December 2021, it seems as if Solar Cycle 25 is surpassing the forecasts. As the chart below via NOAA shows, actual sunspot counts to date are stronger than predicted." It's still early but who knows if this cycle could be a dud or a good one 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 All too preliminary to say… if you move to prediction 6 months back in time, the Monthly smoothed sunspot number aligns with it. it just proves that we still don’t know our sun well enough to make correct predictions, not only in height of sunspot number but also in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 Hmm March went in with a sizzle and out with a bang...Dang I just made that up and it sounded legit lol sounds stupid as well- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 On 1/20/2022 at 12:23 PM, Vancanneyt Sander said: All too preliminary to say… if you move to prediction 6 months back in time, the Monthly smoothed sunspot number aligns with it. it just proves that we still don’t know our sun well enough to make correct predictions, not only in height of sunspot number but also in time. Is that still true? From the image Solarflaretracker just posted, you’d have to move the curve up almost a year. Is it possible for cycles to peak that much off schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 Wtf: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html @Orneno I don't know if this will help but: Quote Solar scientists have suspected for a few months that the Sun's new cycle may be one of its strongest periods since record-keeping began. New data now suggests that it's running ahead of schedule—and that could mean it hitting “solar maximum” much earlier than previously predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: @Orneno I don't know if this will help but: What’s that quote from? It just says both, that it’s strong and early… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 Oh shoot- Thats from 2021... But the link is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/04/21/why-the-sun-at-its-most-potent-could-now-be-set-to-give-north-americans-a-precious-naked-eye-moment/#:~:text=Solar scientists have suspected for,much earlier than previously predicted. I swear that said 2022- oops 🤣 Crap- sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 One of the old wives' tales I've been told over the years is that if it ramps up fast, it will be big. Don't know if there's any truth to that. One thing's certain, I'm really hoping for a strong one like SN 200. At my age I don't have many solar cycles left so let's get busy here, Mr. Sun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 2 hours ago, KW2P said: One of the old wives' tales I've been told over the years is that if it ramps up fast, it will be big. Don't know if there's any truth to that. One thing's certain, I'm really hoping for a strong one like SN 200. At my age I don't have many solar cycles left so let's get busy here, Mr. Sun! I have a lot left in my life, but it would still be great if my first one watching was a banger 😁🤞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 Well with the gap widening between the predictions and the actual graph, It may be a banger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 19 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Well with the gap widening between the predictions and the actual graph, It may be a banger. The difference between predictions and actual in any system represents the boundary of knowledge. The smaller the gap, the more refined/better the knowledge. I hope its banger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Archmonoth said: The difference between predictions and actual in any system represents the boundary of knowledge. The smaller the gap, the more refined/better the knowledge. I hope its banger too. Didn't solar cycle 24 start off the same way this cycle is starting off? Warmed up quick and bombed it suddenly, I don't know. I hope this cycle doesn't do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Didn't solar cycle 24 start off the same way this cycle is starting off? Warmed up quick and bombed it suddenly, I don't know. I hope this cycle doesn't do that I am not sure; I wasn't watching the Sun during cycle 24. However, with peaks in a complex system like the Sun, the Bessel function can be pretty wild. Imagine throwing 1000 dice, (6-sided) you will get more strings of 6s, than with 100 throws. Even if your average over time is the same, the strings (peaks) will be noticeable. (This is my crude understanding, and the analogy is imperfect) Edited April 7, 2022 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Op 6/4/2022 om 19:48, Orneno zei: Is that still true? From the image Solarflaretracker just posted, you’d have to move the curve up almost a year. Is it possible for cycles to peak that much off schedule? Still not much different than SC24, yes it's a bit stronger but nothing compared to SC23. You can use our solar cycle comparison graph to quickly compare cycles: Case closed 😋 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 It is exciting to have lots of solar flares. But it is probably too early to determine if it will be more active than the last solar cycle. I have seen "authoritative" "guesses" for both possibilities. Ask again in September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 More like again in 2024 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 8 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Still not much different than SC24, yes it's a bit stronger but nothing compared to SC23. You can use our solar cycle comparison graph to quickly compare cycles: Case closed 😋 BOOO! Wrong answer. Lmao. I suspect the rapid rise myth among hams arose from Cycle 19, which took off like a rocket and then kept on going to record-setting levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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