Solar Cycle 25 weaker or stronger then Solar Cycle 24?

[Solarflaretracker200]

  Hello everyone!

I was looking at all the solar cycles from solar cycle 1 to solar cycle 25. I did this because I was bored. So as I was looking at the sunspot cycle I found this on a website. Since I have had problems with putting links here I will say this is from a website called Earthsky.  It said this which was posted just after solar cycle 24's end: 

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The 11-year sunspot cycle that just ended, Cycle 24, was a noticeably weak one. Around the peak of the cycle in April 2014, there were substantially fewer sunspots – and fewer accompanying solar flares and coronal mass ejections – than at other recent solar cycles. Experts have predicted that Cycle 25, which was announced to have begun in September of this year, will be a weak sunspot cycle as well. But scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) disagree. They announced on December 7, 2020, their prediction that Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest on record.

They also said this: 

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 conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle is.

 

Last year I only watched Solar cycle 24 around December 1st through December 15th and gave up. Nothing happened. Only maybe saw one KP4. 

 

Another article said this which was posted on November 14th 2021 which was from a website called almanac:

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Solar Cycle 25 will below average, quiet, and cool. This is very similar to the Cycle 24—the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755. "According to NOAA/NASA and international experts: "Cycle 25 will be similar in size to Cycle 24, preceded by a long, deep minimum. Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle."

 

 

So let me ask you guys something. Was Solar cycle 24 weaker then Solar cycle 23 and was it shorter then Solar Cycle 23 or could be shorter then 24? Yes I do understand predictions change, but to you guys which is more accurate? 

 

 

 

For me I like to go with the more exciting one but that's just me lol.

[Sam Warfel]

15 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

  Hello everyone!

I was looking at all the solar cycles from solar cycle 1 to solar cycle 25. I did this because I was bored. So as I was looking at the sunspot cycle I found this on a website. Since I have had problems with putting links here I will say this is from a website called Earthsky.  It said this which was posted just after solar cycle 24's end: 

They also said this: 

Last year I only watched Solar cycle 24 around December 1st through December 15th and gave up. Nothing happened. Only maybe saw one KP4. 

 

Another article said this which was posted on November 14th 2021 which was from a website called almanac:

 

So let me ask you guys something. Was Solar cycle 24 weaker then Solar cycle 23 and was it shorter then Solar Cycle 23 or could be shorter then 24? Yes I do understand predictions change, but to you guys which is more accurate? 

 

 

 

For me I like to go with the more exciting one but that's just me lol.

24 was definitely weaker than 23, which had such events as the Halloween Storms and the X27 (or something like that). 

Most of the predictions for 25 said it would be similar to 24, pretty weak.  It’s still pretty early to tell, but so far 25 is seeming to be more powerful than expected, with sunspot numbers exceeding the predictions. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html

[Quilloz]

At this particular moment, we're definitely seeing signs of a stronger cycle this time around. But as Orneo mentioned, it's still early, so things may change the further we get into this cycle.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

With each end of a cycle it’s always the same story: next will be stronger/weaker and some predictions will say stronger others will say weaker. It’s always been like that and always will be because the solar cycle isn’t totally understood and there is no accurate way of predicting the next cycle. So you’ll always have that it will be weaker or stronger than predicted. A flashback to the SC24 prediction, the panel of scientist didn’t agree and we had two predictions for SC24: one as strong as SC23 and a weaker one. 

this time before the SC25 start they came with a weak cycle again but even then we had some scientist say a different thing based on other methods. 

just like every prediction it’s a prediction and not facts and in space weather the predictions of cycles are based on theories that can be proven false in the future by doing more research as we don’t know a lot about our sun (the inner workings)

you don’t need to read again what they said in previous cycles, although it’s interesting how they came with their theory but still. Just by comparing them in our solar cycle comparison chart it’s easy to see that SC24 was a lot less then SC23. Not only in SSN but also in solar flares and geomagnetic storms (see our solar cycle tracking page). 

the new cycle 25 is just getting started, it’s a bit above the prediction but still a lot lower then SC23! We’ll just have to wait and see what SC25 has in store for us and not pinpoint to the prediction. Compare this cycle against others (for example it’s currently comparable with SC10) but even then you can be fooled because you don’t know how it will further evolve (just compare SC10 with SC24 and you’ll see what I mean)

[Sam Warfel]

Let’s hope for a big one!! 🤞

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 minuut geleden, Orneno zei:

Let’s hope for a big one!! 🤞

We can only hope 😉 at least it can’t be any more worse than SC24… not only the SSN sucked, but barely any earthward directed CME’s, those where mostly destined for the farside and on the limb. If it was Earth directed, the weather sucked and if it was clear sky the IMF was northward.

SC25 had a good start with some descent shows already. So we’re hopeful.

PS: the strongest solar flares happen not on solar max but a bit after 😇

[Solarflaretracker200]

So I didn’t miss anything in SC24 then

[Sam Warfel]

28 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

So I didn’t miss anything in SC24 then

Well not quite nothing, I still wish I had been watching then. We had a few G4s, I think. 
But you didn’t miss anything spectacular in terms of overall solar cycles. 

47 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

We can only hope 😉 at least it can’t be any more worse than SC24…

Thank goodness we seem to have avoided what some people predicted; a Modern Minimum like the Maunder Minimum 😅

[Solarflaretracker200]

7 hours ago, Orneno said:

Well not quite nothing, I still wish I had been watching then. We had a few G4s, I think. 
But you didn’t miss anything spectacular in terms of overall solar cycles. 

Sorry let me rephrase that sentence. I didn’t miss much of anything during SC24’s minimum. 

[Sam Warfel]

26 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Sorry let me rephrase that sentence. I didn’t miss much of anything during SC24’s minimum. 

That definitely is true!

[goldminor]

On 11/30/2021 at 1:24 PM, Orneno said:

 

Thank goodness we seem to have avoided what some people predicted; a Modern Minimum like the Maunder Minimum 😅

It is still possible that we will see minimum conditions set in. Although it would be highly unlikely to experience Maunder level temps. This could turn into another Dalton Minimum which only produced intermittent cold waves in some regions of the NH. SC 24 and SC 25 appear to me as being right on time. Look back at the full record and there are other examples of pairs of weak cycles which occur around every 100 years. The early 1900s were cool across the NH during those weak cycles. Then look back another century and there is the Dalton Minimum A century prior to that and the Maunder Minimum is almost over with after a long run of 50 years. It lasted about another 15 years. SC 26 would also have to be a weak cycle for there to be a true minimum, but we shall have to wait and see.

[Solarflaretracker200]

18 hours ago, goldminor said:

SC 26 would also have to be a weak cycle for there to be a true minimum

Good God let's not hope that. This is going to be my first solar cycle I will watch and I don't want a weak one with crappy CME's and IMF's. 

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Good God let's not hope that. This is going to be my first solar cycle I will watch and I don't want a weak one with crappy CME's and IMF's. 

Same, but the one now is 25, not 26

[Solarflaretracker200]

7 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Same, but the one now is 25, not 26

You mean 24 right?

Oh my bad nevermind

I know what you mean now 

13 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Good God let's not hope that. This is going to be my first solar cycle I will watch and I don't want a weak one with crappy CME's and IMF's. 

I read that sentence wrong. I meant I don't want SC25 to be a fail like 24 was

[Sam Warfel]

Ye fingers crossed 🤞🤞🤞

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Ye fingers crossed 🤞🤞🤞

For some reason every time I start watching something (last year for example watched the planets in the night sky for just that year because there was nothing I could do and got to see The Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn) I get lucky and see the best things Lol. So let's hope SC25 is gonna be a good one. 

That's a bad worded sentence... sorry lol

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said:

For some reason every time I start watching something (last year for example watched the planets in the night sky for just that year because there was nothing I could do and got to see The Great Conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn) I get lucky and see the best things Lol. So let's hope SC25 is gonna be a good one. 

Well I’m glad you’re watching, cause I feel like the opposite happens to me! 🤣😂

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Well I’m glad you’re watching, cause I feel like the opposite happens to me! 🤣😂

Lol same. If you have bad luck for watching solar flares at least. For example on Oct 28 in the morning I randomly thought "I should check the space weather again" just out of the blue. So I had to do some things first then when I got on I looked at the solar flares and was in shock and disappointment. I missed the X class solar flare by 4 hours and 15 minutes. And I was like "Dang it!" 

Actually it was more like 3 hours I missed it by. 

[Sam Warfel]

18 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Lol same. If you have bad luck for watching solar flares at least. For example on Oct 28 in the morning I randomly thought "I should check the space weather again" just out of the blue. So I had to do some things first then when I got on I looked at the solar flares and was in shock and disappointment. I missed the X class solar flare by 4 hours and 15 minutes. And I was like "Dang it!" 

Actually it was more like 3 hours I missed it by. 

Well, to be honest there’s not a big difference between watching the data live and looking at it a bit later. I have notifications turned on, so I’d see it soon enough. 

When that last X flare happened, I was on a bridge biking to school, and when I saw the notification I looked up at the sun without thinking and hurt my eyes 🤣😂🤣😂

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Well, to be honest there’s not a big difference between watching the data live and looking at it a bit later. I have notifications turned on, so I’d see it soon enough. 

When that last X flare happened, I was on a bridge biking to school, and when I saw the notification I looked up at the sun without thinking and hurt my eyes 🤣😂🤣😂

Well I would just like to see live data of X class solar flare happening lol.. 

2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

When that last X flare happened, I was on a bridge biking to school, and when I saw the notification I looked up at the sun without thinking and hurt my eyes 🤣😂🤣😂

Worst time for that to happen and worst time for your eyes lol

(Why the heck does it say I said what you said) 🤣

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Well I would just like to see live data of X class solar flare happening lol.. 

yeah, I don’t think I’ve seen that yet. I’ve been close twice, for both X-class flares this year, but wasn’t watching the data. 

However, I did watch the long-duration M-class flare that launched the full halo cannibal CME that caused the Nov 3/4 storm, that was a pretty cool one. It was so long duration, I chatted about it on this forum with @MinYoongiand others and speculated as the to the CMEs and Auroras to come, it was fun. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Orneno said:

However, I did watch the long-duration M-class flare that launched the full halo cannibal CME that caused the Nov 3/4 storm

Same those are the top strongest solar flares I've seen so far. I was saying in my head "X CLASS! COME ON! PLEASE X CLASS"

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Same those are the top strongest solar flares I've seen so far. I was saying in my head "X CLASS! COME ON! PLEASE X CLASS"

M can still be cool, and produce amazing CMEs and geomagnetic storms, even like G4 and stuff! It doesn’t always have to be X-class! Plus, if you learn to enjoy M as much, you get more excitement 😁

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Orneno said:

M can still be cool, and produce amazing CMEs and geomagnetic storms, even like G4 and stuff! It doesn’t always have to be X-class! Plus, if you learn to enjoy M as much, you get more excitement 😁

True true. As I have said to other people who have started watching solar flares and stuff is this: "You learn just by watching and get ready for the unexpected" because to me waking up and seeing a KP7 is like "Holy cow is this actually happening?"  

[Sam Warfel]

1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

True true. As I have said to other people who have started watching solar flares and stuff is this: "You learn just by watching and get ready for the unexpected" because to me waking up and seeing a KP7 is like "Holy cow is this actually happening?"  

Very true and wise advice. And don’t get discouraged if you try to see Aurora and don’t, there will be many more opportunities over the next few years as it gets more and more active!