Solar Cycle 25 weaker or stronger then Solar Cycle 24?

[Solarflaretracker200]

11 hours ago, KW2P said:

BOOO!  Wrong answer.   Lmao.

I suspect the rapid rise myth among hams arose from Cycle 19, which took off like a rocket and then kept on going to record-setting levels.

And that joke just flew over my head (haha flew over) No but seriously. 

[David Silver]

Does anyone read and respect the word of solar physicists Scott McIntosh (NCAR) and Bob Leamon (U. Maryland-Baltimore County)? They suggest that cycle 24 and 25 just finished overlapping for much longer than expected, which is allowing Cycle 25 to "take off" now. 

Quote

“We have finalized our forecast of SC25’s amplitude,” says McIntosh. “It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20.” 

“Above average” may not sound exciting, but this is in fact a sharp departure from NOAA’s official forecast of a weak solar cycle.

Cycle 25 prediction

Quote

Recent observationally-motivated studies have illustrated a relationship between the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle and the production of the sunspot cycle landmarks and patterns, but not the amplitude of the cycle. Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on 270 years of (monthly) sunspot numbers to robustly identify the so-called “termination” events, landmarks marking the start and end of sunspot and magnetic activity cycles, we extract a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles... - McIntosh

 

[ron]

I am going out on a limb here but it would appear that solar cycle 25 is turning out to be MUCH stronger than 24. even if it stopped right now. it would be more. It appears to be gathering in strength though. I usually prefer to observe for a longer period of time before I make such a statement.

[Sam Warfel]

53 minutes ago, ron said:

I am going out on a limb here but it would appear that solar cycle 25 is turning out to be MUCH stronger than 24. even if it stopped right now. it would be more. It appears to be gathering in strength though. I usually prefer to observe for a longer period of time before I make such a statement.

Yes, it’s promising so far, but we haven’t seen enough yet to really know yet. 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/466/20220411-solar-cycle-25-the-overachiever.html

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

36 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

Yes, it’s promising so far, but we haven’t seen enough yet to really know yet. 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/466/20220411-solar-cycle-25-the-overachiever.html

Latest smoothed update. No overachieving against similar cycles. It overachieved against the NOAA prediction. However, they were multiple times wrong…

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Latest smoothed update. No overachieving against similar cycles. It overachieved against the NOAA prediction. However, they were multiple times wrong…

The included graph does not include latest data.

I have taken the liberty of adding data to end Mar 2022. Given the strange grid intervals it should be taken as a best effort approximation, and is based on monthly mean sunspot number of 78.5 at end Mar 2022

At this stage it is not clear that it will exceed SC24. We need to wait for more data.

[moriyah]

On 4/18/2022 at 11:31 AM, Orneno said:

Yes, it’s promising so far, but we haven’t seen enough yet to really know yet. 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/466/20220411-solar-cycle-25-the-overachiever.html

If we had more info on the Maunder Minimum we might be able to speculate a bit more on SC 24 and 25 and WTF is going on. For me, I am putting my trust in Zharkova. She was, and is, at the forefront of this subject matter. In my opinion, and you can hold me to it, I believe we will see more days, and years, even decades, like today, Ottawa, CAN, high of 16C and expected low of -1C, while the average temp of Earth continues to decline by almost 3C at this time. This winter almost two weeks of -35C, not including wind chill, in this city! HSP inducing for sure. 14 Solar Flares today, how many tomorrow? Most mammals are fairly hardy. Plants, not so much! We have a problem Houston! Understand that the earth and the sun are working together to manage our cycles and see that we, humans, survive. We better pay careful attention lest we miss the instructions we are being given. Anyone not growing plants to eat, on the balcony, kitchen counter, hanging from the ceiling, or, buying extra to put in the cupboard, is not listening to what the sun is telling us: this IS a SUPER Grand Solar Minimum and what we are witnessing is the last gasp of SC24 overlaid on SC25. Solar Cycles transition from one to the next. Prepare now!

[Marcel de Bont]

11 minuten geleden, moriyah zei:

If we had more info on the Maunder Minimum we might be able to speculate a bit more on SC 24 and 25 and WTF is going on. For me, I am putting my trust in Zharkova. She was, and is, at the forefront of this subject matter. In my opinion, and you can hold me to it, I believe we will see more days, and years, even decades, like today, Ottawa, CAN, high of 16C and expected low of -1C, while the average temp of Earth continues to decline by almost 3C at this time. This winter almost two weeks of -35C, not including wind chill, in this city! HSP inducing for sure. 14 Solar Flares today, how many tomorrow? Most mammals are fairly hardy. Plants, not so much! We have a problem Houston! Understand that the earth and the sun are working together to manage our cycles and see that we, humans, survive. We better pay careful attention lest we miss the instructions we are being given. Anyone not growing plants to eat, on the balcony, kitchen counter, hanging from the ceiling, or, buying extra to put in the cupboard, is not listening to what the sun is telling us: this IS a SUPER Grand Solar Minimum and what we are witnessing is the last gasp of SC24 overlaid on SC25. Solar Cycles transition from one to the next. Prepare now!

Welcome moriyah. While I respect your opinion I really do not understand how you can be saying this. We are clearly in the rising phase of SC25. There are no more regions belonging to SC24 popping up anymore. SC25 is looking to be as strong but likely even stronger than SC24. All the grand solar minimum theories are being blown to pieces every day that passes. Just look at today we had yet again an X-class solar flare. I doubt you care but I have a huge respect for Dr. K. Strong a YouTuber with an extensive background in helio physics. Try to watch some of his videos he might be able to change your mind.

 

 

 

[moriyah]

Thanks, Marcel, for your response and input. I will definitely watch your suggested videos. In spite of them being facetious on the front.

I have been watching this earth weather, not the sun, closely since March of 2014 when temps, in Edmonton, went into double digits (Celsius) and stayed there. To me that was the beginning of the blow out of SC24. I see no reason to expect otherwise from SC25. Indeed, I expect it to blow out far sooner in the cycle. Yes, a truncated cycle. There are lots of extreme events underway, and forthcoming, on earth and in the heavens (ie. October / November 2024). How do they affect, what are there effects, on human behavior and agricultural production and therefore life. Nothing else is, comparatively, relevant. I respect your logic and judgement. I would be glad to see the earth warming. Global warming is fine with me. More food even if adjustments are needed! Global cooling??? We have a problem Houston!

Those who have a vested interest in any judgement lose their sense of judgement. Do you have a vested interest in other than what is True?

Hey, I'm just a typical newbie!

BTW, while we are engaged, do you think that, maybe, the sun is engaged entirely in protecting the earth?

That's a serious question.

[moriyah]

I watched them all.

Why next to nothing from NOAA or NASA? For years.

We shall see!

With 13 Solar events today, and other days recently, I expect it is going to swing this way or the other. If it is this way then we will be burnt to a crisp! If the other then we have a Maunder Minimum, or worse, situation. Everybody gets to eat their lunch at some point.

I'm Hungry. How about you?

[Sam Warfel]

I can’t even call this pseudoscience, it’s not science at all… pseudointelligence?

Whatever it is, it has no place on these forums. 

(In reference to the posts made by user moriyah)

[Cmags]

21 uren geleden, Marcel de Bont zei:

Welcome moriyah. While I respect your opinion I really do not understand how you can be saying this. We are clearly in the rising phase of SC25. There are no more regions belonging to SC24 popping up anymore. SC25 is looking to be as strong but likely even stronger than SC24. All the grand solar minimum theories are being blown to pieces every day that passes. Just look at today we had yet again an X-class solar flare. I doubt you care but I have a huge respect for Dr. K. Strong a YouTuber with an extensive background in helio physics. Try to watch some of his videos he might be able to change your mind.

I'm just usually a lurker cuz I'm too shy to pipe in usually, but I had to comment... Hell yeah, Dr. Strong is a rockstar! I learn so much from him. Awesome resource -- I highly recommend Dr. Strong for anyone wanting to REALLY learn about solar activity. Excellent suggestion, Marcel.

 

21 uren geleden, moriyah zei:

Thanks, Marcel, for your response and input. I will definitely watch your suggested videos. In spite of them being facetious on the front

Not sure what is facetious about ANYTHING marcel shared... Dr. Strong is literally a champion and pioneer, not to mention an intellectual powerhouse, in the field of heliophysics.  Here are just a few of his credentials:

• Started as data analyst on the NASA Solar Mission X-ray Polychromator Experiment in 1980
• In 1984 appointed Principal Investigator of XRP (to 1991)
• Co investigator on Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope - scientific planning until 1995" 

from his Linked In profile

If you really want to learn about solar physics, Dr. Strong is an excellent place to start, hands down. 

[Marcel de Bont]

22 minuten geleden, Cmags zei:

If you really want to learn about solar physics, Dr. Strong is an excellent place to start, hands down. 

Thank you Cmags. I can only repeat the quote above as he is the most qualified person on YouTube to talk about solar physics.

moriyah can think and believe whatever he/she wants and lives the way he/she wants accordingly but the evidence is clear. All the grand solar minimum bull**** theories are busted and come from sources that have a second agenda. Influence their followers and generate revenue of them. It is disgusting but something we all have to learn to live with and recognize in this digital age as a modern scam.

[MinYoongi]

I see people on twitter constantly overexaggerating this cycle (as of now).

I know we're in a fast ramp up. I guess you are all excited for it?  

It exaggerated Noaa forecast but as of now its nothing scary or anything so i wish some people would stop going bonkers on twitter, sigh.

 

as for moriyah : Stop consuming this trash  

[Archmonoth]

On 4/30/2022 at 2:00 PM, moriyah said:

I have been watching this earth weather, not the sun, closely since March of 2014 when temps, in Edmonton, went into double digits (Celsius) and stayed there. To me that was the beginning of the blow out of SC24.

These might correlate in time for you, but solar cycles do not cause the weather changes you are noticing. 

 

On 4/30/2022 at 2:00 PM, moriyah said:

I would be glad to see the earth warming. Global warming is fine with me. More food even if adjustments are needed! Global cooling??? We have a problem Houston!

Global warming has some very serious issues, especially with ice melt in the polar regions. This is because the polar regions reflect much the Sun's light. Climate Change, as reported by the IPCC is on its 6th report suggests the dire consequences of continued warming. Here is the PDF link if you are interested: IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf

 

Climate change is not increased/affected by solar cycles, and if SC25 is stronger than SC24, this is not the cause of climate change. The causes of climate change are directly connected to pollution, fossil fuel consumption, and environmental disruption from human activity. 

 

On 4/30/2022 at 2:00 PM, moriyah said:

BTW, while we are engaged, do you think that, maybe, the sun is engaged entirely in protecting the earth?

That's a serious question.

Protecting the planet from what?

Edited May 24, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Newbie]

On 5/1/2022 at 8:00 AM, moriyah said:

Hey, I'm just a typical newbie!

BTW, while we are engaged, do you think that, maybe, the sun is engaged entirely in protecting the earth?

That's a serious question.

Hello moriyah,

It is an interesting question, especially in light of a new research paper that has been put forward but not as yet published, (which I read about on that dreaded site: spaceweather.com),  I jest.

It proposes that a cold interstellar gas cloud compressed the heliosphere (the extent of influence of the solar wind) closer in to the Sun than the orbit of the Earth. It was estimated to have occurred ~ two million years ago. The paper goes on to discuss changes on the Earth that resulted. 

Whilst I dont necessarily agree with their conclusions, it reaffirms to me the role that the  heliosphere plays in pushing against interstellar space, protecting the solar system from a huge number of intergalactic cosmic rays which would present serious consequences for life here on Earth.

So while I don't accept that the Sun is "engaged entirely in protecting the Earth" the Sun certainly does protect the Earth, and the rest of the solar system via the heliosphere. 

The Earth's magnetic field, the ring current and the Van Allen belt protect the Earth from the Sun.

Also thanks Archmonoth

Newbie

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by Newbie
More clarity

[Solarflaretracker200]

On 5/23/2022 at 3:51 PM, MinYoongi said:

as for moriyah : Stop consuming this trash  

YES AGREED 

[3gMike]

A question from Goldminor, in the thread linked above, led me to revisit the topic of how Cycle 25 compares with earlier cycles, and to speculate on where it may go from here.

Using the Historical Cycles feature on this website we can easily make comparisons

So, while some people are saying that Cycle 25 looks to be growing much faster than predicted, I think we need to recognise that the prediction is only an approximation, and the curve is clearly not comparable with the last two cycles. The plots above make it obvious that Cycle 25 is only slightly ahead of Cycle 24, and is quite a bit weaker than Cycle 23 at this stage of development. It is also clear that it is still theoretically possible for Cycle 25 to turn out weaker than Cycle 24, so what other data can we draw on to inform our view?

The solar activity report from Jan Alvestad (solen.info) is very informative

This essentially shows that the averaged 10.7cm flux has been flat since early April. The latest dip in measured flux was the lowest figure since early January. That does not bode well, but we should expect to see the flux climb again over the next week or so.

Considering M and X class flares - we saw a peak of 33 flares in April, associated with 8 different locations - 6 in the Northern hemisphere and 2 in the South. The very large active zone responsible for many of those spots has now broken down into two smaller zones. We have seen only 11 flares of this class in the whole of June & July, again suggesting a lull in activity.

It is interesting to note that both Cycles 23 and 24 showed a dip in activity at around the three year point, before hitting a slightly higher maximum at around 5.5 years. We are currently only 2.5 years into Cycle 25 so I would hope this is not the early onset of an extended lull, but looking at the photospheric map it is difficult to see where any growth will come from. Currently there seem to be many quite small zones, and even those that look promising - with multiple contour lines indicating higher field strength - can disappoint.

I thought that the four marked zones looked promising. So far zone 1 has come onto the limb as a plage, with Zone 2 just appearing as a single spot. We have to wait a few more days to see what the other two will do, then we can only hope for some further development !

[Capricopia]

I am in the earlier and lower max compared to SC24 camp.  The WSO Computed "Tilt Angle" of the Heliospheric Current Sheet has just shot up over 70 in the classic model. Typically solar max is within 1 or 2 years.

 

http://wso.stanford.edu/Tilts.html

http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif

Cosmic rays just dropped

[Capricopia]

This paper looks at the growth rate in sunspot acitivy as an indicator for the strength of the following cycle.  https://www.aanda.org/component/article?access=doi&doi=10.1051%2F0004-6361%2F202243509 and it deduces that SC25 will be weaker.

Looking at the progression of SC 25 on the excellent Solen.info site (blocked by farceblock as spam) it looks like SC 14 which peaked at 107 sunspots is a likely model, both in terms of the amplitutude 

and symmetry in the hemishperes,

 

 

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 minuut geleden, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

10 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

 

Last year we found a new theory with the 10.7 solar flux to calculate the upcoming strength. The fault from the previous cycles was less the 5.8 %……
The fault from the date of the high was less then 6 months….
(PDF) Calculating the Exact Strength of Solar Cycle 25 using 365 Days Smoothing

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Last year we found a new theory with the 10.7 solar flux to calculate the upcoming strength. The fault from the previous cycles was less the 5.8 %…… The fault from the date of the high was less then 6 months….
(PDF) Calculating the Exact Strength of Solar Cycle 25 using 365 Days Smoothing

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing

So, to be clear, you believe that Solar Cycle 25 will probably peak at less than 100 spots as early as Dec 2023?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

9 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

So, to be clear, you believe that Solar Cycle 25 will probably peak at less than 100 spots as early as Dec 2023?

Yes. Also I haven’t found many complex sunspots in the coming months. Overall sunspot activity is lowerthen…

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Yes. Also I haven’t found many complex sunspots in the coming months. Overall sunspot activity is lowerthen…

Do you have any idea if we will see peaks in Northern and Southern hemispheres at different times, as was particularly noticeable in Cycle 24? Given the timeframes do you believe that we may already have seen the peak in the Northern hemisphere?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur geleden, 3gMike zei:

Do you have any idea if we will see peaks in Northern and Southern hemispheres at different times, as was particularly noticeable in Cycle 24? Given the timeframes do you believe that we may already have seen the peak in the Northern hemisphere?

The strength of the polar fields is about the same. This means both will reach there high at the end of 2023. The northern field is currently weak, but will improve in strength…

it is explained in this document: 

(PDF) 2 Solutions for the Axial Dipole Field: In Phase and in Anti-Phase

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333445984_2_Solutions_for_the_Axial_Dipole_Field_In_Phase_and_in_Anti-Phase