AR 3637, 3638, 3643

[hamateur 1953]

Cool. Maybe this time the USA will get something but afraid to get my hopes up too high. Haha.  Btw lmsal ( solar soft) just posted a close up series on their website of our irritable AR spitting furiously if y’all wanna have a look.  Pretty cool. https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ 

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, NEAurora said:

I’m getting bored of all these weak M1.x “flares,” I say it’s well past time for the sun to get serious and launch something that gets at least to an R2.

1 hour ago, Adohran said:

Couldn't agree more! 280+ Sunspots and little activity, only those impulsive ones. If they were at least long duration I would say fair enough. I guess we have to see if anything interesting happens.

I wouldn't expect too much from this region at this point, and now it's soon going over the limb anyway. Maybe it will complexify further as it returns, but this was already the remnant of a previous active region if I'm not entirely mistaken.

Luckily for us we most likely still have the best in store. Not too long ago someone (@hamateur 1953 or @3gMike, I believe) posted a plot of what the average cycle looks like in terms of both SN and geomagnetic activity, and I was quite surprised at just how much later the peak of the geomagnetic activity tended to be relative to the SSN maximum. Whether we passed maximum last year (unlikely if you ask me) or we're in the process of passing it now (more likely), or possibly later this year or maybe even next year, the peak of geomagnetic activity almost always tends to occur well after that happens. Looking at the geomagnetic data back to 1940 there doesn't seem to be a single exception to this.

Here's a plot of the SSN maxima against the Ap-index maxima within each cycle:

As you can see, the Ap-index peak happens after the SSN peak without fail, sometimes even long after, even close to the minimum as we can see for SC18 and SC20.

[Parabolic]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Here's a plot of the SSN maxima against the Ap-index maxima within each cycle:

As you can see, the Ap-index peak happens after the SSN peak without fail, sometimes even long after, even close to the minimum as we can see for SC18 and SC20.

What program do you use to create these plots? Or would you by chance have a good recommendation? Windows is my operating system.

[Philalethes]

9 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

What program do you use to create these plots? Or would you by chance have a good recommendation? Windows is my operating system.

I'm using Python, just the basic Matplotlib library; you can run that easily on any operating system.

These days there are a lot of other options out there too though. Since I as of yet don't really use much else I can't really recommend anything specific, but I'd definitely recommend looking into various other programs too before settling into a single option. There are various programs with and without GUIs to do so, you can do it with spreadsheets like Excel, other languages which are even more specifically geared towards data analysis and visualization (like R), and even better libraries than Matplotlib for Python (which I have considered looking into myself). I'd say try a bit of everything and see what suits you.

[mozy]

Damn the western limb is a loop-fest currently lol

[hamateur 1953]

No kidding @mozy!! I was noticing that just now also.   Hey @Philalethes  as far as charts go, it likely was @3gMike unless I cut/pasted one in response to Patrick, but I think I just referred Patrick to Jans historical data charts RE: cycle 19 to illustrate that rises and falls of over 100 SFI within a months time weren’t unusual in any cycle, even an outstanding one as 19 was.  And it seems to me as well that this cycle is far from having shot its bolt last June and continues to surprise us for a low-moderate one. It just keeps producing those new ARs nearly every day now.  

Edited April 24 by hamateur 1953

[Philalethes]

13 minutes ago, mozy said:

Damn the western limb is a loop-fest currently lol

Looks like a magnetic pole coming straight out of this region, heh.

[mozy]

15 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Looks like a magnetic pole coming straight out of this region, heh.

It's been awhile since we've seen the limb of disappointment deliver, I believe It's time again 😎

[Parabolic]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

It's been awhile since we've seen the limb of disappointment deliver, I believe It's time again 😎

Looks like it's rehearsing. AR3638 produced a C9.4 flare at 14:40 and had nice radio emissions and gave a little bump to protons.

[3gMike]

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Luckily for us we most likely still have the best in store. Not too long ago someone (@hamateur 1953 or @3gMike, I believe) posted a plot of what the average cycle looks like in terms of both SN and geomagnetic activity, and I was quite surprised at just how much later the peak of the geomagnetic activity tended to be relative to the SSN maximum. Whether we passed maximum last year (unlikely if you ask me) or we're in the process of passing it now (more likely), or possibly later this year or maybe even next year,

I do not recall posting that, but I did notice that Jan Alvestad today posted 365 day smoothed 10.7cm flux as 158.4 vs 158.71 for the current max in June last year.

[hamateur 1953]

Yes and running mean for this month at 164.5 for 10.7. May might be even better in two weeks.  Sfi 199 still.  Probably will drop off when this plasma fountain leaves, but still should stay above 150 sfi for awhile with this many regions.  😇

9 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I wouldn't expect too much from this region at this point, and now it's soon going over the limb anyway. Maybe it will complexify further as it returns, but this was already the remnant of a previous active region if I'm not entirely mistaken.

Luckily for us we most likely still have the best in store. Not too long ago someone (@hamateur 1953 or @3gMike, I believe) posted a plot of what the average cycle looks like in terms of both SN and geomagnetic activity, and I was quite surprised at just how much later the peak of the geomagnetic activity tended to be relative to the SSN maximum. Whether we passed maximum last year (unlikely if you ask me) or we're in the process of passing it now (more likely), or possibly later this year or maybe even next year, the peak of geomagnetic activity almost always tends to occur well after that happens. Looking at the geomagnetic data back to 1940 there doesn't seem to be a single exception to this.

Here's a plot of the SSN maxima against the Ap-index maxima within each cycle:

As you can see, the Ap-index peak happens after the SSN peak without fail, sometimes even long after, even close to the minimum as we can see for SC18 and SC20.

SC 20 was a long cycle and punctuated on the downslope by periods of pretty intense geomagnetic stuff.  Cycle 21 was pretty awesome. Though I don’t recall it’s full characteristics but quite a few storms after 1979 peak. 

Edited April 25 by hamateur 1953
Grammah agin

[coinpeace]

Looks like the background flux is nearly at m level. I don't think I've seen that before.

[Adohran]

15 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I wouldn't expect too much from this region at this point, and now it's soon going over the limb anyway. Maybe it will complexify further as it returns, but this was already the remnant of a previous active region if I'm not entirely mistaken.

Luckily for us we most likely still have the best in store. Not too long ago someone (@hamateur 1953 or @3gMike, I believe) posted a plot of what the average cycle looks like in terms of both SN and geomagnetic activity, and I was quite surprised at just how much later the peak of the geomagnetic activity tended to be relative to the SSN maximum. Whether we passed maximum last year (unlikely if you ask me) or we're in the process of passing it now (more likely), or possibly later this year or maybe even next year, the peak of geomagnetic activity almost always tends to occur well after that happens. Looking at the geomagnetic data back to 1940 there doesn't seem to be a single exception to this.

Here's a plot of the SSN maxima against the Ap-index maxima within each cycle:

As you can see, the Ap-index peak happens after the SSN peak without fail, sometimes even long after, even close to the minimum as we can see for SC18 and SC20.

Always a bunch of new stuff to learn from you. 

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, coinpeace said:

Looks like the background flux is nearly at m level. I don't think I've seen that before.

It sure has been very high over the past six days.   SFI will be dropping shortly, but hoping for at least four months of high mean flux for Solar Maximum.  Seems to performing better than I had anticipated., We just need a bit more violence from earth- facing regions now  and the gallery here will applaud!! 

Edited April 25 by hamateur 1953
Scrabbled spellinz