MinYoongi Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: That is a big “Magnetic Cage” indeed. wonder if @Parabolic is around? They brought this interesting subject up in emerging flux theory awhile back I think. Although I don’t know if it would apply in this instance. Edit: It sure is hot in 131 ang. Just a little push. Reconnecting and blammo! Our baseline flux is being held halfway up C level now probably by this guy alone. yes! And now an M class flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 (edited) 11 hours ago, MinYoongi said: yes! And now an M class flare. Yep. X diffraction spikes says to me it was 3638 alright. solar soft indicates 3636. Wrong again haha. I later noticed that Solar Ham showed 3638. And now Solar Soft does too. Plus 3645 just kicked one out @MinYoongi cool! However M flares are ok but give us a big X please before the limb of disappointment. Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953 Correction. And another funnier one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: That is a big “Magnetic Cage” indeed. wonder if @Parabolic is around? They brought this interesting subject up in emerging flux theory awhile back I think. Although I don’t know if it would apply in this instance. Edit: It sure is hot in 131 ang. Just a little push. Reconnecting and blammo! Our baseline flux is being held halfway up C level now probably by this guy alone. I think @Philalethes has the math figured out more than I do. It would take me an hour to figure out how to calculate the unsigned magnetic flux after learning it the third time haha. Interesting enough though I am begining to think magnetic shear is also playing a fair factor in the involvement of these CME-less flares. Here is an article I found interesting about magnetic shear and the role it plays during flare reconnection: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/acebeb Here's the link for the article on Magnetic Caging https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aba6ef Edited April 22 by Parabolic More info 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Parabolic said: I think @Philalethes has the math figured out more than I do. It would take me an hour to figure out how to calculate the unsigned magnetic flux after learning it the third time haha. Interesting enough though I am begining to think magnetic shear is also playing a fair factor in the involvement of these CME-less flares. Here is an article I found interesting about magnetic shear and the role it plays during flare reconnection: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/acebeb Here's the link for the article on Magnetic Caging https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aba6ef You are absolutely correct on magnetic shear. The cool Halloween storms video illustrates this visibly RE: AR 10486 which developed an extensive polarity shear line just before a massive X flare. Worth checking it out if ya haven’t yet. Mikehttps://m.youtube.com/watch ?v=hABmdvKReNo Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953 Reworded added link 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 I saw some aurora over my head last night (the moon made me think they were clouds for a while) but right before dawn, the moon set enough to let the sky get a little darker and I could see the characteristic pulsing of blue/green light thru what I previously thought to be clouds. Where I live you usually need a kp of at least 6 to make you look up generally but checked the noaa sight and there wasn't even geostorm or any indication of higher level aurora activity. Is it possible the instruments were wrong/malfunctioning or is it possible I saw a sub storm drop anomalously far south or something of that nature? It looked like what kp7 storms usually look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 6 hours ago, Parabolic said: Interesting enough though I am begining to think magnetic shear is also playing a fair factor in the involvement of these CME-less flares. 6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: You are absolutely correct on magnetic shear. The cool Halloween storms video illustrates this visibly RE: AR 10486 which developed an extensive polarity shear line just before a massive X flare. Worth checking it out if ya haven’t yet. Mikehttps://m.youtube.com/watch That's definitely true, and shear is typically better known as a factor when it comes to more eruptive flares. There's clearly an interplay of lots of different factors when it comes to whether or not a region will tend to be more productive in terms of CMEs, probably also factors we can't even directly observe yet. Shear has been an interesting topic for a while, and I still think it's sad that there's a dearth of live data on it. When looking at the HMI SHARP data series lately I saw that there are some values in there for shear too, which it might be interesting to look at in various ways, and there are also supposedly good vector magnetogram data which can yield very cool visualizations of the magnetic field on a closer scale like e.g. this one. Would've been cool to have something like that live for the more active regions as another tool to use, it's certainly something it's possible to dig into. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamDieGurke Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Another longer lasting M flare but seems non eruptive again. This probably wont produce a CME for us anymore 😕 this cycle hates us lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 22 minutes ago, SamDieGurke said: Another longer lasting M flare but seems non eruptive again. This probably wont produce a CME for us anymore 😕 this cycle hates us lol tripple now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: tripple now! I am hoping it tires of not producing a decent CME and finally deals us something worthwhile soon! Geomagnetic disturbances from the CH are likely to wreck the lower Ham bands anyway 🤣 Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 4th xD its not calming down. i wonder why it might be the northern region, oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: 4th xD its not calming down. i wonder why it might be the northern region, oh. First one this cluster, second one northern, current one eastern limb region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: 4th xD its not calming down. i wonder why it might be the northern region, oh. The 4th one is from 3656 Edited April 22 by Misaka 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 4 minutes ago, mozy said: First one this cluster, second one northern, current one eastern limb region lol! Interesting! Lots of activity. 3 minutes ago, Misaka said: The 4th one is from 3656 thanks misaka! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: lol! Interesting! Lots of activity. Like someone activated a switch lol Of course the limb event produced a CME Edited April 22 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) I am almost scared to post this, however it appears to me that the new kid on the block 3656 was responsible for the most recent M 2.6. Haha. I missed Misakas note. Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953 Oops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 https://www.solarham.net/ In the latest 131Å movie on solar ham 3647 or perhaps 3648 can be seen angrily spitting repeatedly almost as if someone has their foot on it, and it wants to explode, but can’t. This may be an extreme example of “ magnetic caging” that is being discussed here. Although frustrating to us, it is kinda interesting to watch…. Dunno about the rest of ya though. Mike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Region 3638 gives us an eruptive solar flare producing a CME. Possibly only a glancing blow for Earth at this point. To be determined. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 At this point, I'm not expecting the CME to arrive at L1. it seems a little too far off to the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 I think it's hard to say if we can expect anything now from those regions, only impulsive flares and that's it. Maybe an X-Flare once it passed the limb xd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Yeah you are probably correct @Adohran 3654 seems to have grown significantly on the other side if ya want to start a thread for it, see what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 I’m getting bored of all these weak M1.x “flares,” I say it’s well past time for the sun to get serious and launch something that gets at least to an R2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 (edited) 42 minutes ago, NEAurora said: I’m getting bored of all these weak M1.x “flares,” I say it’s well past time for the sun to get serious and launch something that gets at least to an R2. Couldn't agree more! 280+ Sunspots and little activity, only those impulsive ones. If they were at least long duration I would say fair enough. I guess we have to see if anything interesting happens. Edited April 24 by Adohran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 (edited) I think the CME may have been a little too far off to the side for an arrival. The travel time is probably within a 60-84 hour window, but probably won't survive a CH that passed by center-disk. Actually more around a 4 day travel. Forgot to switch back one parameter. Edited April 24 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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