Parabolic Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 (edited) Active Region 3614 I found an interesting comparison from AR3614's previous rotation. These two images are from 02/18/2024 and 03/17/2024 respectively. Edited March 17 by Parabolic Typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loganas Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, Parabolic said: Active Region 3614 I found an interesting comparison from AR3614's previous rotation. These two images are from 02/18/2024 and 03/17/2024 respectively. hopefully it's hiding something behind the limb like last time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Popular Post hamateur 1953 Posted March 17 Solution Popular Post Share Posted March 17 (edited) 1 hour ago, Loganas said: hopefully it's hiding something behind the limb like last time North 16 latitude roughly corresponds to old ‘90 So it probably is indeed. Further corroboration is our baseline solar flux, which at 17:00 utc was approximately 153. Up significantly over the past two days. Probably the southern hemisphere incoming region which apparently just developed is helping push flux back higher too. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to me anyway. Hopefully. ‘90 has had sufficient time to reconsider how shamefully it acted last transit and deals us a decent earth-directed geomagnetic storm this time. 😆 Edited March 17 by hamateur 1953 @jesterface23 style humour. Shamelessly plagiarized above 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDNeon Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: North 16 latitude roughly corresponds to old ‘90 So it probably is indeed. Further corroboration is our baseline solar flux, which at 17:00 utc was approximately 153. Up significantly over the past two days. Probably the southern hemisphere incoming region which apparently just developed is helping push flux back higher too. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to me anyway. Hopefully. ‘90 has had sufficient time to reconsider how shamefully it acted last transit and deals us a decent earth-directed geomagnetic storm this time. 😆 Can you explain what you mean by "old '90"? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDNeon Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 I'm just learning; I'll provide a screenshot for reference, but in the magnetogram isn't there clearly a positive and negative pole located within the sunspot? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: North 16 latitude roughly corresponds to old ‘90 So it probably is indeed. Further corroboration is our baseline solar flux, which at 17:00 utc was approximately 153. Up significantly over the past two days. Probably the southern hemisphere incoming region which apparently just developed is helping push flux back higher too. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to me anyway. Hopefully. ‘90 has had sufficient time to reconsider how shamefully it acted last transit and deals us a decent earth-directed geomagnetic storm this time. 😆 I guess we have to see what it has in check for us this time, would be nice if it rotates fully into view and shows us some good stuff this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 it has grown a bit and even has a few small deltas, but it seems to me that the end is near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loganas Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: North 16 latitude roughly corresponds to old ‘90 So it probably is indeed. Further corroboration is our baseline solar flux, which at 17:00 utc was approximately 153. Up significantly over the past two days. Probably the southern hemisphere incoming region which apparently just developed is helping push flux back higher too. The next two weeks are going to be interesting to me anyway. Hopefully. ‘90 has had sufficient time to reconsider how shamefully it acted last transit and deals us a decent earth-directed geomagnetic storm this time. 😆 Imaged this region earlier, doesn't seem like there's much more coming unfortunately. Looks like 3590 hasn't learned it's lesson yet! guess we weren't harsh enough last time haha. Edited March 18 by Loganas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: it has grown a bit and even has a few small deltas, but it seems to me that the end is near I say this respectfully, but I really doubt it's end will arrive before it reaches the west limb. I also personally think this region has survived two rotations. Correct me if I'm wrong but after doing some very rough research I believe it was possibly first numbered AR3559. Things can change quickly though and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it decayed to plage in 24hrs haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 49 minutes ago, Parabolic said: I say this respectfully, but I really doubt it's end will arrive before it reaches the west limb. I also personally think this region has survived two rotations. Correct me if I'm wrong but after doing some very rough research I believe it was possibly first numbered AR3559. This would only be its second trip across our side of the solar disk. It developed at some point after February 3rd on the far-side. Old region 3559 is now 3611. Here's where this region left off before going over the western limb and the region now, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 M1 per solar soft. After 3612 on the downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 13 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: The next two weeks are going to be interesting to me anyway. Yeah interesting... It will be nerve wracking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wolf star said: Yeah interesting... It will be nerve wracking! It’s always a waiting game. It’s been probably a year since we had the KP eight that wasn’t predicted to go that high either in the states. We are overdue imho. We have a good two or three years by my reckoning of decent active regions, despite what you may read elsewhere. SWPC and NASA expect a second peak as do most others familiar with sunspot cycles, good days are still ahead for those 730 days or longer. We are only 4.5 years roughly into the average 11 year cycle now regardless. I love this stuff. Haha. Mike. Edited March 18 by hamateur 1953 Punctuation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 11 uren geleden, IDNeon zei: I'm just learning; I'll provide a screenshot for reference, but in the magnetogram isn't there clearly a positive and negative pole located within the sunspot? Thanks. Newly assigned regions that appear on the limb often start as alpha until the whole region gets better into view and the magnetic configuration can be seen better. SWPC already upgraded the magnetic configuration to beta. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhereingtonEvent Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 When I read about the classification system I noticed and copied; Delta spots rarely last longer than one rotation of the Sun. They decay quicker then other sun spots. However, new delta spots can form within the same area. Delta sunspot groups usually do not separate, but rather die together. so I am curious. If 3614 is ol’ 90, but now is a simpler beta class….. does that suggest that 90 died and what we now observe is “new” or is 3614 the result of a complex sunspot growing simple? I also am just learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDNeon Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 6 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Newly assigned regions that appear on the limb often start as alpha until the whole region gets better into view and the magnetic configuration can be seen better. SWPC already upgraded the magnetic configuration to beta. Thanks for the clarification; very cool! But now I'd say we can clearly see 3614 off the limb. Because the magnetogram seems to show clearly that the positive and negative poles cut through the penumbra, would we expect 3614 to become a beta-gamma or such? Sorry for the crude screenshot/mashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 18 hours ago, IDNeon said: Can you explain what you mean by "old '90"? Thanks 3590. Apologies. This was an active region that distinguished itself by discharging a number of moderate M class flares* on our side of the sun during its transit. Mike. * with minimal earth-directed coronal mass ejections. Edited March 18 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Hopefully all the quiet from this spot allows it to build up for a major x-class flare when to turns to face us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Is this about to launch something? It looks weird above the sunspot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, Jay-B said: Is this about to launch something? It looks weird above the sunspot! im not sure. maybe a filament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamDieGurke Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 (edited) On 3/20/2024 at 5:59 PM, Jay-B said: Is this about to launch something? It looks weird above the sunspot! and something is happening there right now! looks like a decently big filament release, although it doesn't seem like its going towards us Edited March 21 by SamDieGurke added some extra 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 51 minutes ago, SamDieGurke said: and something is happening there right now! looks like a decently big filament release, although it doesn't seem like its going towards us Definitely looks like a big filament release, although it seems like a lot of the material rained back down on the surface. It's already visible in the very last image of C2 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 25 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Definitely looks like a big filament release, although it seems like a lot of the material rained back down on the surface. It's already visible in the very last image of C2 too. anything earth directed? I read alot got reabsorbed and too far north maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 38 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: anything earth directed? I read alot got reabsorbed and too far north maybe. Hard to say yet, but I agree with both of those by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 15 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Hard to say yet, but I agree with both of those by the looks of it. It looks like it also destabilized the filament running through AR3615. Wonder if it will further destabilize the big filament that is NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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