Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Do you mean the EPAM values are fairly high or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Do you mean the EPAM values are fairly high or something else? EPAMp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: EPAMp how does that translate to earth impact? Which data exactly? Sorry, i dont use epamp much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 and another spike or continuation of ramp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, tniickck said: and another spike or continuation of ramp up i dont exactly know what that means concretly. noob mode activated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont exactly know what that means concretly. noob mode activated https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-it-s-going-to-arrive.html read this, it is described here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) You can also check out the Help section, clicking a section something about How we can tell a cme is on its way to earth and How we can tell when it arrives. Was really helpful to me, but I still need practice to fully understand. Edit: tniickck just posted a link about what I meant.🤭 Edited January 22 by Malisha Reuvekamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Thanks guys! But is the epam stuff of any worth when it comes to geoeffectiveness? thats not really explained there but @Jesterface23 mentioned its higher than he anticipated etc. i just dont know how it translates to what the impact will look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But is the epam stuff of any worth when it comes to geoeffectiveness? thats not really explained there but @Jesterface23 mentioned its higher than he anticipated etc. i just dont know how it translates to what the impact will look like It doesn't say how good a CME will be. Some filaments hardly budge the EPAMp and we are up around the levels of some decent flare CMEs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: It doesn't say how good a CME will be. Some filaments hardly budge the EPAMp and we are up around the levels of some decent flare CMEs. Hm, okay. but why the difference then if it does not say how good a CME will be? Its hard to wrap my mind around. so it can be that high but it does not say how good impact will be, and is its own phenomena? just so i get it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Hm, okay. but why the difference then if it does not say how good a CME will be? Its hard to wrap my mind around. so it can be that high but it does not say how good impact will be, and is its own phenomena? just so i get it right? Maybe it will be decent heh. We'll find out shortly I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think what is meant is that maybe it rises higher relatively to other events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Maybe it will be decent heh. We'll find out shortly I guess hm, yeah sorry for the many questions. im very confused about all this. 1 minute ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: I think what is meant is that maybe it rises higher relatively to other events? i dont know, could be that jester meant it that way. @Philalethes do you maybe have an idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Pretty crazy seeing the EPAMp 47-68keV line all the way up to 300k with no arrival yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Pretty crazy seeing the EPAMp 47-68keV line all the way up to 300k with no arrival yet have you seen that before? Does that mean it will arrive soon likely? i see that it started rising yesterday so isnt it too long? I mean ive seen it rise for 2 days before i think.. hmm. do the bigger spikes mean something will likely impact soon? if yes - i think ive understand it finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) It starts rising when a cme erupts earth-directed. You can check out 2 hours, 6 hours, 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days and also (afterwards) you can see the whole proces clearly happening. Edited January 23 by Malisha Reuvekamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, MinYoongi said: have you seen that before? Does that mean it will arrive soon likely? Typically that would be a shock arrival is imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: It starts rising when a cme erupts in earth direction. You can check out, 6 hours, 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days afterwards so you can see the whole proces clearly. Just now, Jesterface23 said: Typically that would be a shock arrival is imminent that would make sense, right? I looked at the predictions and 17-18 UTC (so in about an hour) seems to be one of the most popular arrival times. noaa also predicted it to start from 18-21 UTC. (in their model even 12UTC i believe but not sure?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It is possible that ACE had a shock arrival between 16:00Z and 16:10Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It is possible that ACE had a shock arrival between 16:00Z and 16:10Z. Ah. cool! that would explain the Epam. @Jesterface23 arrival? (at L1) oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @Jesterface23 arrival? (at L1) oops It almost seems closer to a CME/SIR arrival. If we get a better shock arrival eventually, then we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I thought the same because of the low speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) I think this was mostly the change from ACE to DSCOVR. That’s why it somewhat looks like a shock arrival. Density is always showing very low on ACE. Looks like something hit but it’s rather weak. Edited January 22 by arjemma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 so not the impact yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, MinYoongi said: so not the impact yet? No I don’t think so… if it’s not a weak hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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