chronical Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) Theres a filament that erupted this morning, pretty sure it was talked about in the filament topic, but the NASA modelisation seems way too exaggerated, and I wonder if it could correspond to the shock modelisation? https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 Edited January 20 by chronical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 lmao i was about to create the same topic. M2M NASA forecaster Hannah Hermann predicts Kp6-Kp8 update: it was remodeled and Kp5-7 is expected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, tniickck said: lmao i was about to create the same topic. M2M NASA forecaster Hannah Hermann predicts Kp6-Kp8 update: it was remodeled and Kp5-7 is expected why do you think remodelled?i can see the model from 12:06 UTC and the one from 12:49 UTC but i ddont know the difference. and it says up to almost kp8 still but nasa m2m and met office say 5-7 in the CME Scoreboard. ofc the first is only a model so id trust the forecasters more. @Jesterface23 @Philalethes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Hmm. It looks like we will be taking a direct hit from the CME with a egg shaped full halo. I'd expect an arrival between the afternoon on the 22nd to the morning of the 23rd UTC. G3 may be possible with an early arrival going to G2 possible with a later arrival. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Hmm. It looks like we will be taking a direct hit from the CME with a egg shaped full halo. I'd expect an arrival between the afternoon on the 22nd to the morning of the 23rd UTC. G3 may be possible with an early arrival going to G2 possible with a later arrival. I made a forecast earlier and it is nearly the same as yours Edited January 20 by tniickck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, tniickck said: I made a forecast earlier and it is nearly the same as yours Interesting! How did you make this forecast? Do you have your own model or something like that? I'm asking as I have made a few projects (that aren't done) in python to calculate a few things in space weather. To me it does look like a glancing blow, but a rather strong one (if we get some core). Hopefully we will get some core that has the right flux rope orientation so we can get some nice aurora. It has been a while since we had strong aurora so I hope this will give us some storming. According to the CME Scoreboard the average max kp is around 4-6 as of now. Side note: I love this concept when it comes to topic creation and it will be easier to go back and read about certain storms in the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) The launching filaments had substantial helicity, vorticity, or just plain twistiness associated with them. I wonder if that is conducive or deleterious, or neither, with regard to maintaining its plasma density as it travels towards Earth? 1 hour ago, arjemma said: Side note: I love this concept when it comes to topic creation and it will be easier to go back and read about certain storms in the future. Yes indeed - my only other suggestion would be to adopt a standard date and time format in topic titles, e.g. YYYY-MM-DD https://www.iso.org/iso-8601-date-and-time-format.html That said, it is easy enough to search the archive with a keyword (e.g. CME) and a date range, irrespective of the date time format in the title or text. Edited January 21 by Drax Spacex looking for date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, arjemma said: Interesting! How did you make this forecast? Do you have your own model or something like that? no. based on ejecta location and coronograph imagery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The SWPC is going with an early 2 days travel time arrival and issued a G2 watch so far. The current model run doesn't seem very accurate to what is seen in coronagraph imagery though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: . The current model run doesn't seem very accurate to what is seen in coronagraph imagery though. Why? what do you think about nasas model ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) What about latest Nasa model? It looks so different. Than Met Office and swpc. Edited January 21 by Malisha Reuvekamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 i dont believe in ENLIL model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: What about latest Nasa model? It looks so different. Than Met Office and swpc. Latest Nasa model is for another cme (if you mean the one 15UTC) the run for this cme is still the 12:49 one. nasa runs all cmes because they have missions besides earth too 26 minutes ago, tniickck said: i dont believe in ENLIL model why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 23 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: why? i mean the one which is here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/ru/solnechnaya-aktivnost/wsa-enlil.html Looking at 304 movie of cme we see a huge bulk of material coming towards us and enlil made a "hole" in cme so the Earth won't be hit as much as we expect, according to it Edited January 21 by tniickck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 41 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Latest Nasa model is for another cme (if you mean the one 15UTC) the run for this cme is still the 12:49 one. nasa runs all cmes because they have missions besides earth too Thank you, that explains a lot. 🤭 I only have 1 nasa model as far as I know, using SpaceweatherLive. Where can I find different nasa models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 25 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Thank you, that explains a lot. 🤭 I only have 1 nasa model as far as I know, using SpaceweatherLive. Where can I find different nasa models? https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-density/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 35 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Where can I find different nasa models? you can see the runs here :Nasa- Iswa You can then use the arrows to look at the differnt runs. nasa models many CME's so they cover all their missions in space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Thank you both! Very nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 a second just erupted off of the north east, i opened this thread expecting to have seen that the filament on the south had erupted but wow! noice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, cheebee said: a second just erupted off of the north east, i opened this thread expecting to have seen that the filament on the south had erupted but wow! noice! Huh? When? Im gonna look at suvi ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 33 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Huh? When? Im gonna look at suvi ! https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/mpeg/latest_1024_0335.mp4 sorry i was a bit late, it starts at about 00:00 on the 21st, top left, whoooosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Is that bad for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Is that bad for us nah not yet..... 👀😄 sorry for laughing, we've seen some crazy stuff come off of the sun and we've been just fine, so the way i see it, when one pops off thats going to be a real problem, we'll be like.... oi oi savaloy, thats a f***ing biggun! also we'll probably need a lot of build up of magnetic disturbance before hand for a big one to have full effect, thats just my take on it, sorry for messing about i think we'd be less likely to ask, 'is that gonna be trouble' and we'd be more like 'thats going to be trouble' ... we'll probably know straight away Edited January 21 by cheebee felt bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) Funny what do you mean Edited January 21 by Nathan Majors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesterface23 Posted January 21 Popular Post Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Is that bad for us It's as bad a a gnat flying at full speed into a window. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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