AR 13372: M5, M6, and more!

[cgrant26]

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

i just woke up and saw how many flares there were while i was sleeping

Some decently strong flares too.

[3gMike]

14 hours ago, tniickck said:

M5.8, M6.7 and a couple of M1s in 1 day is actually very spectacular from 1 region

i think the next few days gonna be fun

The M6.7 has been assigned to AR3368 by SWPC. Jan Alvestad at Solen https://solen.info/solar/index.html seems to agree. He often challenges the SWPC attributions, so I suspect that it is correct on this occasion. Even, so this AR has made a good entrance !

Edited July 12, 2023 by 3gMike
added link to Solen

[Philalethes]

27 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The M6.7 has been assigned to AR3368 by SWPC. Jan Alvestad at Solen seems to agree. He often challenges the SWPC attributions, so I suspect that it is correct on this occasion. Even, so this AR has made a good entrance !

If you're talking about the one from yesterday (M6.7 on GOES-18, M6.8 on GOES-16), that was definitely this region and not 3368:

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

The M6.7 has been assigned to AR3368 by SWPC. Jan Alvestad at Solen https://solen.info/solar/index.html seems to agree. He often challenges the SWPC attributions, so I suspect that it is correct on this occasion. Even, so this AR has made a good entrance !

3368 and 3372 are on the different sides of the solar disc, so it was certainly 3372

[3gMike]

33 minutes ago, tniickck said:

3368 and 3372 are on the different sides of the solar disc, so it was certainly 3372

Two independent experts (SWPC and Jan Alvestad) have assigned it to AR3368. Having seen the image posted by Philalethes above, I would be inclined to agree with you but we need to understand why experts are claiming something different. It is also worth noting that on several occasions yesterday simultaneous flaring was noted on opposite sides of the disk with ARs 3361, 3363, 3366 and 3368 all flaring at the same time as 3372 at one time or another.

[Philalethes]

16 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Two independent experts (SWPC and Jan Alvestad) have assigned it to AR3368. Having seen the image posted by Philalethes above, I would be inclined to agree with you but we need to understand why experts are claiming something different. It is also worth noting that on several occasions yesterday simultaneous flaring was noted on opposite sides of the disk with ARs 3361, 3363, 3366 and 3368 all flaring at the same time as 3372 at one time or another.

Even more obvious when watching the video from SDO too, which the image is a still from; not sure why they'd both assign it to the wrong region, but maybe Jan just didn't double-check it. I agree that there has been a lot of simultaneous flaring from both regions, but that's mostly been lower-level flaring, and there wasn't really much activity near 3368 during that major flare. I don't think there's much chance of this really being from there, so I'm assuming SWPC and Jan are simply wrong here whatever the reason might be.

[Jesterface23]

From the SWPC,

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2023 Jul 11 1751 UTC
Maximum Time: 2023 Jul 11 1808 UTC
End Time: 2023 Jul 11 1816 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.8
Location: N21E90
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Edited July 12, 2023 by Jesterface23

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Even more obvious when watching the video from SDO too, which the image is a still from; not sure why they'd both assign it to the wrong region, but maybe Jan just didn't double-check it. I agree that there has been a lot of simultaneous flaring from both regions, but that's mostly been lower-level flaring, and there wasn't really much activity near 3368 during that major flare. I don't think there's much chance of this really being from there, so I'm assuming SWPC and Jan are simply wrong here whatever the reason might be.

Yes, I had a chat with Jan and he confirms that he made a mistake.

[hamateur 1953]

lots of mistakes yesterday and easy to understand why!  If anyone but us hams cares sfi is looking better every day!  Our F layer is getting a nice bath of UV currently. @KW2P produced an excellent blurb ( his words) in our amateur radio subsection for those who are interested in radio propagation. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by hamateur 1953
afterthoughts

[tniickck]

this region is being quite calm for more than 24 hours

[Drax Spacex]

Still foreshortened, but there may be a weak delta in the trailing penumbra.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

Still foreshortened, but there may be a weak delta in the trailing penumbra.

where?

[Philalethes]

51 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

where?

These are potential positive areas that might be involved in deltas as far as I can see, particularly the top one:

But still a bit early to tell.

[mozy]

The main delta that flared constantly decayed after the latest M 6.9 flare, you could see spots fading out on SDO's loop shortly after it, probably why the activity halted.

[cgrant26]

5 hours ago, tniickck said:

this region is being quite calm for more than 24 hours

No M-class today but seems it's making up for quality with quantity.

That 60% probability seems a little low. 🙂

Edited July 13, 2023 by cgrant26

[tniickck]

finally M2.1

[Philalethes]

Another impulsive one by the looks of it; all show and no dough.

And another one.

And another one.

And another one.

And another one.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Philalethes
and anotha' one x4

[Tormentius]

Hey guys, a little confused about the latest update from this region. In their latest forecast update, NOAA claims this region as beta-gamma-delta and Solar Ham says the same on his site. But on NOAA’s Solar Region Summary which is updated at the same time it is still listed as Beta-Delta as it is on the site here. So, I’m a little confused. Did NOAA make an error here?

[Jesterface23]

It's up to Beta-Gamma-Delta now. There's probably a quick data feed available somewhere, and there is the timing of when the data is obtained.

[Philalethes]

Hard to believe that a measly C5 could be responsible for the purported 1200 km/s eruption suggested by the radio emission, but in 304 Å there does seem to be some sort of eruption at that point. Doesn't quite look like a filament eruption though, looks closer to the dark plasma eruption we saw recently in the southern hemisphere. Anyone got any ideas about this?

[mozy]

13 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Hard to believe that a measly C5 could be responsible for the purported 1200 km/s eruption suggested by the radio emission, but in 304 Å there does seem to be some sort of eruption at that point. Doesn't quite look like a filament eruption though, looks closer to the dark plasma eruption we saw recently in the southern hemisphere. Anyone got any ideas about this?

I was just looking for what could be responsible for it myself but I didn't become any smarter so I gave up lol

[MinYoongi]

5 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Hard to believe that a measly C5 could be responsible for the purported 1200 km/s eruption suggested by the radio emission, but in 304 Å there does seem to be some sort of eruption at that point. Doesn't quite look like a filament eruption though, looks closer to the dark plasma eruption we saw recently in the southern hemisphere. Anyone got any ideas about this?

Is there an earth directed CME?

[tniickck]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Is there an earth directed CME?

on COHO it looks like 360 degrees galo if i am not mistaken

stereo hasnt updated since 21 utc

[Jesterface23]

The CME came from 3376. A weak western far side CME is just adding a little bit more difficulty.

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Is there an earth directed CME?

Doesn't look like there was anything at all from that particular event.