Geomagnetic K-index of 8?, coronal hole along with cme?

[Bobofango]

For a G4 and such a long sustained negative IMF, the aurora activity here has been pretty low. I wonder if the low wind speeds have something to do with this. I've definitely seen G2s that look much better than what I'm seeing now. And I love I'm a high-ish latitude. (Canada)

[Isatsuki San]

41 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

No he estado prestando mucha atención a la actividad eruptiva últimamente debido a la falta general de llamaradas, pero he estado tratando de reconstruir qué está causando esto.

Hasta ahora, mi mejor conjetura es esta, una combinación de tres cosas:

1. Creo que la razón principal es la siguiente: el 20/03 alrededor de las 14:00 a las 17:00 hubo una llamarada de nivel C medio cerca de 3258 como se ve  aquí y aquí (creo que esto fue lo que llevó a Arjemma a abrir el hilo en él a pesar de la falta de manchas solares allí). A primera vista, esto parecía inocuo, y realmente no pensé mucho en ello. Sin embargo, puede ver en las imágenes que, a pesar de no alcanzar una intensidad máxima alta, la llamarada fue bastante extensa y también fue relativamente duradera, ya que duró varias horas. También puede ver notablemente esta actividad en las imágenes SDO , particularmente algo bastante notable, a saber, lo que parece ser un ejemplo bastante claro de actividad sigmoidea., conocido por estar asociado con la actividad eruptiva (al menos que yo sepa). Junto con todo esto, existe este  CME registrado por CACTUS que estoy bastante seguro que se originó con esa quema; Creo que podría ser un poco confuso debido a que ocurrió otra CME casi simultáneamente que sospecho que fue del otro lado, pero realmente no estoy seguro, puedes ver que la mayor parte de la explosión se dirige ~ 45 ° en sentido contrario a las agujas del reloj desde el norte, pero que es bastante ancho. Si esta llamarada fue de alguna manera responsable de las dos CME detectadas por CACTUS ( esta es la segunda, y puede ver ambas CMEen cualquiera de los dos), entonces eso implicaría que fue una erupción estrecha con un componente significativo orientado hacia la Tierra, pero definitivamente debería analizarse más a fondo antes de concluir con eso. Como se mencionó anteriormente, creo que esta podría ser la razón principal de esta actividad.
2. Habiendo dicho lo anterior, creo que hay dos razones más, la segunda es esta: más temprano ese mismo día hubo muchas llamaradas de bajo nivel con 3256 y 3257 (una al lado de la otra), así como la solo M-flare ese día. Por alguna razón (los mecanismos detrás de la actividad aquí son muy complejos), esta llamarada en combinación con la llamarada anterior de 3258 parece haber llevado a un oscurecimiento coronal muy significativo entre las dos regiones, comenzando alrededor de las 16:00 de ese día cuando la llamarada de 3258 estaba desapareciendo y se volvió bastante claro un día completo después, como se ve aquí , antes de convertirse en lo que yo consideraría un agujero coronal transitorio completo (algo que discutí un poco no hace mucho aquí) un poco más tarde el día después de eso (22/03, hace aproximadamente 1,5 días al momento de escribir esto), como se ve aquí . Creo que esto, debido a que está ubicado justo en el ecuador solar visto desde la Tierra (es decir, no el ecuador solar real considerando el eje de rotación del Sol), podría haber exacerbado la actividad eruptiva anterior.
3. Por último, también está el enorme agujero coronal un poco al sur del ecuador solar visto desde la Tierra; No estoy seguro de hasta qué punto podría haber contribuido, pero sospecho que las regiones más septentrionales podrían haber contribuido fácilmente a despejar el camino para los dos anteriores debido a que giraron más allá del meridiano central antes.

Esos son mis pensamientos sobre esta situación hasta ahora, me encantaría escuchar lo que otros piensan sobre esto y lo que está sucediendo. Veo que hemos llegado a G4 ahora, bastante impresionante.

seeing your theory, I have another theory, the flare m was the one that arrived before time at 1:30 p.m. last the impact of cme together with cir. that is why the density is so high at 63, for later 18:47 ult the other cme of c 4 of long duration

[farm24]

Wow this is the first time I witnessed an Aurora directly over me, it’s mesmerizing 

Also I’m back out of the lurking zone again

[KW2P]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Since it officially at Kp 8 now naturally it is overcast where I live!   hopefully someone gets some good pics!!

Naturally. At Kp=8 I might be able to see something on the northern horizon but we have clouds and impending thunderstorm weather.  😞

[Drax Spacex]

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

What happened is very surprising, we all thought it was a weak come and well

this is the cme that is causing everything here

No Stereo Ahead COR2 coronagraph imagery since 2023-03-19 23:09:05 may have complicated the analysis of this "stealthy solar storm", possibly causing it to be dismissed as far side activity.

[MinYoongi]

5 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

Oh my gosh geomagnetic storm kp8

 

I got this notification, I don't know if it's true or not

 yes is true...

And you were perfectly fine !! 🤗 Nothing happened besides pretty aurora! If you’re not a satellite owner you have not much to worry about, I promise. 😌💓

4 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

What happened is very surprising, we all thought it was a weak come and well

this is the cme that is causing everything here

What we experience might be tied to a phenomena called „stealthy CME“ due to coronagraph imagery missing.

[Jesterface23]

Wow, all the way to G4. The CME that launched there early on the 20th would been the best possibility. The CME later that day wouldn't have been in the position to bring a flux rope like this.

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

During this storm I noticed incredibly calm GOES X flux, while the bright spots, while SDO/HMI and other visual instruments did not point to a quiet moment (at least to me, a newbie on the subject).

Does anyone believe it could be possible that the current storm could interfere with GOES X instruments?

[David Silver]

That was the strongest storm we’ve experienced yet this solar cycle. Southward Bz allowed the moderate solar wind to affect us intensely.

 

[NEAurora]

What a pleasant surprise this event was!   A lot of things seemed to come together, a pretty large CH, maybe an incognito CME, the timing around the equinox, and a long duration of -Bz magnetic orientation.  Clouds and fog mostly limited the view for me, as is customary during strong events 🙃.  Even so, we got lucky enough to catch a brief clearing allowing for a vivid display at around 44 degrees latitude.

[3gMike]

9 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Since it officially at Kp 8 now naturally it is overcast where I live!   hopefully someone gets some good pics!!

Hi Mike,

I've been away for a few days - hoping to catch some Aurora. Last night I went out around 10:00 p.m. It was cloudy with strong wind and rain so I headed back to my lodgings thinking I had missed the opportunity. Just before midnight I looked out and the sky was really clear, so I took the camera out and managed to capture my first Aurora photos. I will try to post some a bit later.

 

[hamateur 1953]

Ok then!!  at least you were involved in a useful occupation and not wasting time with housework etc. Glad to see ya back!!!

[IlikeAuroras]

1 hour ago, David Silver said:

That was the strongest storm we’ve experienced yet this solar cycle. Southward Bz allowed the moderate solar wind to affect us intensely.

 

We could say it's about tied with November 4th, 2021

[hamateur 1953]

6 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Mike,

I've been away for a few days - hoping to catch some Aurora. Last night I went out around 10:00 p.m. It was cloudy with strong wind and rain so I headed back to my lodgings thinking I had missed the opportunity. Just before midnight I looked out and the sky was really clear, so I took the camera out and managed to capture my first Aurora photos. I will try to post some a bit later.

 

 

[ToMorrow]

Russell-McPherron effect intensified the storm ?

[Michael]

Haudy community, I follow these websites since a couple of years and found mostly answers to my questions. I don't know if this is the right topic, but I dont't find an answer for the lightnings, I saw yesterday nearby Tromso (NOR), short before the Corona begins. At first I saw 2 white bubbles, and then it follows a third, but coloured, very quick, like an implosion. If there were a TV, I would think at next Cpt. Kirk will come out, so impressiv it was. I stopped the car, fixed my cam, but all 3 bubbles are going down. 5 Minutes later begans the spectacle of the storm. Today I spend much time to find informations or fotos of these bubbles  - nothing. So, is there anybody with an answer for me ? Was it possibly the blusty entrance of insulated postrons storm? Thanks a lot.

[3gMike]

Here is a taster of Aurora caught a 53 degrees latitude in the U.K. on 23rd March, around midnight.

Higher Resolution images can be seen via this link https://www.dropbox.com/t/FtkvwyYyjQndR4oR

Images captured with 5 to 15 second exposure using F2 lens and ISO 3200 setting.

[Cronus]

Veni, Vidi, Vici

Edited March 24, 2023 by Cronus
typop

[Marcel de Bont]

21 uren geleden, Michael zei:

Haudy community, I follow these websites since a couple of years and found mostly answers to my questions. I don't know if this is the right topic, but I dont't find an answer for the lightnings, I saw yesterday nearby Tromso (NOR), short before the Corona begins. At first I saw 2 white bubbles, and then it follows a third, but coloured, very quick, like an implosion. If there were a TV, I would think at next Cpt. Kirk will come out, so impressiv it was. I stopped the car, fixed my cam, but all 3 bubbles are going down. 5 Minutes later begans the spectacle of the storm. Today I spend much time to find informations or fotos of these bubbles  - nothing. So, is there anybody with an answer for me ? Was it possibly the blusty entrance of insulated postrons storm? Thanks a lot.

You saw the BROR rocket launch: 

 

18 uren geleden, Cronus zei:

Veni, Vidi, Vici

Care to explain what that means. I am confused 😂 🙄

Op 24/3/2023 om 13:51, Paulo Scaldaferri zei:

During this storm I noticed incredibly calm GOES X flux, while the bright spots, while SDO/HMI and other visual instruments did not point to a quiet moment (at least to me, a newbie on the subject).

Does anyone believe it could be possible that the current storm could interfere with GOES X instruments?

I think you mean the X-ray flux went to A1 or A0.1? That is because the Earth comes in between the satellite and the Sun in the weeks around the equinox. That occurs once a day.

Op 24/3/2023 om 05:14, cgrant26 zei:

We're getting a great show here in central Minnesota. A couple weeks ago we went out to see Aurora for that double CME arrival and got clouded out. Tonight not a cloud in the sky!

Awesome! Great to hear! Welcome to the forums.

[hamateur 1953]

On 3/24/2023 at 11:26 AM, Michael said:

Haudy community, I follow these websites since a couple of years and found mostly answers to my questions. I don't know if this is the right topic, but I dont't find an answer for the lightnings, I saw yesterday nearby Tromso (NOR), short before the Corona begins. At first I saw 2 white bubbles, and then it follows a third, but coloured, very quick, like an implosion. If there were a TV, I would think at next Cpt. Kirk will come out, so impressiv it was. I stopped the car, fixed my cam, but all 3 bubbles are going down. 5 Minutes later begans the spectacle of the storm. Today I spend much time to find informations or fotos of these bubbles  - nothing. So, is there anybody with an answer for me ? Was it possibly the blusty entrance of insulated postrons storm? Thanks a lot.

It is possible that you are one of the few posters that witnessed the BROR rocket launch.  There was a clip posted earlier. checkitout!  Good luck! Hamateur ( Mike)  Oops. somehow missed Marcels post!! my bad!! 

Edited March 25, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Michael]

 Thank you community. 👍 We just back from holidy and saw the video from the BROR lounch. YES, we saw that lounch, and it was no alien inavsion, Cpt. Kirk or, what I thought, an isolated proton aurora. Added ded a few impressions from the corona, we saw.

 

[Sam Warfel]

None too shabby for southern Wisconsin. 

I haven’t seen a G4 like this before! And it was about right as amazing as I expected a G4 would be. 

[Calder]

34 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

None too shabby for southern Wisconsin. 

I haven’t seen a G4 like this before! And it was about right as amazing as I expected a G4 would be. 

So jealous. It has been cloudy every single solar storm here for like the last two years. 😅

[Sam Warfel]

11 hours ago, Calder said:

So jealous. It has been cloudy every single solar storm here for like the last two years. 😅

Someday it will all work out!!

[Cat Perkinton]

On 3/23/2023 at 10:05 PM, hamateur 1953 said:

Just musings here…. But what if we had a real-time planetary A index available for our interpretation??  Raw data so to speak.  Would be preferable.  Anyone else thinking along those lines on this forum??  Mike/Hagrid. 

guess I should have LOOKED AT spaceweather watch. excuuuse me! 🤣🤣🤣

Well, exposing my ignorance has never been a problem for me. I only hope Cat Perkinton has her eyes and camera at the ready!  

Ha unfortunately a sky full of cloud & rain that night, manages a sneak of red in a teeny gap in clouds, meh