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Geomagnetic K-index of 8?, coronal hole along with cme?


Isatsuki San

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17 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

It is the first time that I see that the Kiruna (Sweden) pressure gauge reaches 9 kp, what is really happening?

chart (10).png

What is happening with this geomagnetic storm, how did I cause it or what?

its a local magnetometer and kiruna is very, very far up north at the poles, sometimes they hit Kp8-9 

thats not the same as kp9 for the whole planet, its local 

its still a ch hss with maybe an embedded CME i dont get what youre asking rn, sorry.

18 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

how did I cause it or what?

? o.O what

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4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

its a local magnetometer and kiruna is very, very far up north at the poles, sometimes they hit Kp8-9 

thats not the same as kp9 for the whole planet, its local 

its still a ch hss with maybe an embedded CME i dont get what youre asking rn, sorry.

? o.O what

What caused that, and well, I'm sorry, I was scared, it's really the first time I've seen everything, I must have been viewing the page for 3 years, I got scared, I don't know why that happened. I wanted to say

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10 hours ago, M42Sparks said:

So at Kp7 has it wiped out any HF radio. The charts i was looking at don't reflect this condition or is there a time lag in the real time charts listed on space weather.

Propagation was indeed bad when this first hit, but since this afternoon HF propagation has been quite good (at low-to-middle latitudes at least) even with G2-G3 conditions.  High latitude and transpolar propagation are probably not so good.

The Kp index measures geomagnetic conditions from the previous 3 hours, so it does lag real-time conditions.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-kp-index.html

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  • Isatsuki San changed the title to geomagnetic storm kp 7, coronal hole along with cme?
6 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

one question is it good or bad that the disturbance storm weather indexes this to 198 dst?

Good great aurora, don’t worry 

we had many g3 storms 

26 minutes ago, Planeus said:

Amazing show here in Canada!!! (Southern Ontario around 43 degrees north)

https://imgur.com/gallery/mgyoM7R 

Glad to hear have fun hunting.

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Just now, Isatsuki San said:

It seems that the density is increased a bit now that it is coming?

It can be the ch hss cir arriving, I sadly don’t have too much of a clue either. With cmes and coronal hole streams you have to wait until it’s over, look at the data and then you can tell which was which.

from noaas forecast discussion (I will quote it below) it seems we’re under CME influence and will soon transit to the coronal hole. I tend to agree with that, but I don’t know what the other opinions are? @arjemma @Jesterface23 @Philalethes Bythos

24 hr Summary...
G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels were reached with a CME or CMEs
from 20-21 Mar that had been forecast to pass mostly behind and north of
Earths orbit.

.Forecast...
G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storm levels are expected early 24 Mar due to
CME influences. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels remain likely through the
remainder of 24 Mar due to continuing, but weakening CME influences; and
CH HSS onset possible later in the day.
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9 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

how does the dst work? I know what stores energy in the magnosphere but what to do with that energy?

If you check the page here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers.html#DST_index To add to this, think of Dst as a measurement of a type of movement of the magnetosphere, in which energy is stored and released from the compression of Earth's magnetic field. This will indicate the arrival of Solar Wind via CME or CH HSS, which will then trigger Aurora if other conditions are met.

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6 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

If you check the page here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers.html#DST_index To add to this, think of Dst as a measurement of a type of movement of the magnetosphere, in which energy is stored and released from the compression of Earth's magnetic field. This will indicate the arrival of Solar Wind via CME or CH HSS, which will then trigger Aurora if other conditions are met.

Explained it so much better than I ever could :) 

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  • Isatsuki San changed the title to Geomagnetic K-index of 8?, coronal hole along with cme?
5 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Oh my gosh geomagnetic storm kp8

 

I got this notification, I don't know if it's true or not

It is true according to NOAA SWPC. I have never seen the aurora of a KP8 and it is actually amazing. Dancing, flaming lights directly overhead in southern North Dakota.

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7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

from noaas forecast discussion (I will quote it below) it seems we’re under CME influence and will soon transit to the coronal hole. I tend to agree with that, but I don’t know what the other opinions are?

I haven't been paying much attention to eruptive activity lately due to the general lack of flaring, but I've been trying to piece together what is causing this.

So far my best guess is this, a combination of three things:

  1. The foremost reason I believe to be this: on 20/03 at around 14:00 to 17:00 there was some mid-C-level flaring near 3258 as seen here and here (I believe this was what prompted arjemma to open the thread on it despite the lack of any sunspots there). At first glance this seemed innocuous, and I didn't really think that much of it. However, you can see from the imagery there that despite not reaching high peak intensity, the flaring was quite extensive, and it was also relatively long-lived, lasting several hours. You can also noticeably see this activity in the SDO imagery, particularly something quite remarkable, namely what seems to be a rather clear example of sigmoid activity, known to be associated with eruptive activity (at least to my knowledge). Taken together with all of this, there is a CME registered by CACTUS that I'm fairly certain originated with that flaring (apparently CACTUS changes the links to the various CMEs as it's being updated, so I can't link to it, but it's the one at 14:07 on 20/03, the type III one); I believe it might be a bit confused due to another CME occurring almost simultaneously that I suspect was from the far side, but I'm really not sure, you can see the brunt of the blast is directed ~45° counterclockwise from north, but that it's quite wide. If this flaring was actually somehow responsible for both the CMEs detected by CACTUS (the second one is the one at 16:13 the same day, the type II one), then that would imply it was a narrow eruption with a significant Earth-facing component, but it should definitely be analyzed further before concluding with that. As mentioned above, I think this might be the main reason for this activity.
     
  2. The above being said, I think there are two more reasons, the second one being this: earlier that same day there was a lot of low-level flaring going on with 3256 and 3257 (right next to each other), as well as the single M-flare that day. For whatever reason (the mechanisms behind the activity here is mighty complex), this flaring in combination with the above flaring of 3258 seems to have led to very significant coronal dimming between the two regions, starting around 16:00 that day when the 3258 flaring was dying down, and becoming quite clear by a full day later as seen here, before becoming what I'd deem a full-fledged transient coronal hole (something I discussed a bit not long ago here) by a bit later the day after that (22/03, roughly 1.5 days ago at the moment of writing this), as seen here. I think this, due to being located right at the Solar equator as viewed from Earth (i.e. not the actual Solar equator considering Sol's axis of rotation), might have exacerbated the above eruptive activity.
     
  3. Lastly, there's also the huge coronal hole a bit south of the Solar equator as seen from Earth; I'm not sure to what extent it might have contributed, but I suspect the northernmost regions of it could easily have contributed to clearing the way for both of the above due to having rotated past the central meridian earlier.

Those are my thoughts on this situation so far, I'd ble glad to hear what others think about both this and what's happening. I see we've reached G4 now, quite impressive.

Edited by Philalethes Bythos
CACTUS link shenanigans
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