Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 (edited) Parece que se acerca el efecto del agujero coronal y ocurre una tormenta geomagnética kp6, Edited March 24, 2023 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Yep, we are in the CH CIR. Possibly in the CIR/HSS transition now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MZPL Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I'm wondering what caused this sudden drop of density Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xavier Stanton Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 KP7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M42Sparks Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 So at Kp7 has it wiped out any HF radio. The charts i was looking at don't reflect this condition or is there a time lag in the real time charts listed on space weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, M42Sparks said: So at Kp7 has it wiped out any HF radio. The charts i was looking at don't reflect this condition or is there a time lag in the real time charts listed on space weather. What charts are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 We were at least briefly under Kp7 conditions. The SWPC has us under Kp4 or below now, but local areas may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Hace 1 hora, Jesterface23 dijo: Estuvimos al menos brevemente en condiciones Kp7. El SWPC nos tiene por debajo de Kp4 o menos ahora, pero las áreas locales pueden ser diferentes. I am surprised to see a geomagnetic storm kp 7 that is past? is the ch doing the geomagnetic storm conditions kp7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I am surprised to see a geomagnetic storm kp 7 that is past? is the ch doing the geomagnetic storm conditions kp7? Yeah that happened before. its also a combination from ( i think multiple) CME's and CH HSS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Well, it seems that the United State station is experiencing a kp8 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-magnetometer-analysis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said: Well, it seems that the United State station is experiencing a kp8 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-magnetometer-analysis I use HP30 nowcast, i dont know how different that is. @Vancanneyt Sander @Marcel de Bont can you guys shed some light? PS: Last Kp7 was closer to a 8 on that chart you linked too, i remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Sí, eso pasó antes. también es una combinación de (creo que múltiples) CME y CH HSS I know, I wanted to say, what is happening, here, I was seeing what supposedly caused it and the only cme that is directed to earth was a weak cme along with the cir ch, It seems that the planetary conditions have dropped to kp 5 but the bz 13 is to the south so maybe a kp6 or kp5 will follow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Yeah. I dont know what to expect for the next hours because its sustained negative BZ but the speed is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Sí. No sé qué esperar para las próximas horas porque su BZ negativo sostenido pero falta velocidad. if sustained to the south, a geomagnetic storm kp6 can come in the next hours So maybe and I see the aurora potential is around 120 almost II have a question @Vancanneyt Sander @Marcel de BontWhat do you think of the conditions for the next few hours and what do you think of the geomagnetic storm kp7 that there was for an hour I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I think we will see a transition to the coronal hole stream soon, i think we're still in the CIR. I dont know how long they usually last. I also think the impact was earlier than noaa anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Creo que pronto veremos una transición a la corriente del agujero coronal, creo que todavía estamos en el CIR . No sé cuánto suelen durar. También creo que el impacto fue antes de lo previsto por noaa. I think the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hagen72 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 45 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Ich denke, wir werden bald einen Übergang zum koronalen Lochstrom sehen, ich denke, wir sind immer noch im CIR . Ich weiß nicht, wie lange sie normalerweise halten. Ich denke auch, dass der Aufprall früher war, als noaa erwartet hatte. Is it possible that we have seen a cannibale Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, Hagen72 said: Is it possible that we have seen a cannibale Storm? No. The CME maybe got embedded into the CH HSS. Cannibal CME is a tricky term, i will link you some stuff on them later if you'd like to read up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just musings here…. But what if we had a real-time planetary A index available for our interpretation?? Raw data so to speak. Would be preferable. Anyone else thinking along those lines on this forum?? Mike/Hagrid. guess I should have LOOKED AT spaceweather watch. excuuuse me! 🤣🤣🤣 Well, exposing my ignorance has never been a problem for me. I only hope Cat Perkinton has her eyes and camera at the ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 This could be a SIR with embedded flux rope. Time will eventually tell. Nice negative Bz though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: This could be a SIR with embedded flux rope. Time will eventually tell. Nice negative Bz though Do SIR's last that long? Man, its been so long we had such a decent CH HSS, i completely forgot everything. Noaa confirming its stronger than they anticipated. i thought so it was quite early too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Wow.... KP7, in two minds if I should drive up to Maine 2.5 hrs. Will this sustain for next few hourw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Do SIR's last that long? Man, its been so long we had such a decent CH HSS, i completely forgot everything. The SIR would have been back around the proton density spike and is well over. The long transitions in the IMF components might be that we are in, a flux rope. The velocities are gradually going down and other components have glitchy data, so I'm not 100% sure if we are actually in a CME/flux rope or if we are in a long CIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The SIR would have been back around the proton density spike and is well over. The long transitions in the IMF components might be that we are in, a flux rope. The velocities are gradually going down and other components have glitchy data, so I'm not 100% sure if we are actually in a CME/flux rope or if we are in a long CIR. When do you think is stuff gonna change? Thanks for your opinion! Looks like we're in a G2 storm rn. @Jesterface23 did you see the drop in temperature between 22:30UTC and now? does that maybe give us some info? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When do you think is stuff gonna change? Thanks for your opinion! Looks like we're in a G2 storm rn. There are better odds asking a magic 8 ball heh. A shift to begin the decline in the aurora could be in 10 minutes or keep on going for another 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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