tniickck Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Lawn Boy said: A Coincidence to what? Are there times when the opposite is true, the Earth facing side is more active than the far side? Are there people who keep up with this kind of thing? to Earth's position relatively to the Sun. there is no reasons why farside is more active than the Earth-facing side, because the Earth is spinning around the Sun, not viceversa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/17/2023 at 11:00 AM, Archmonoth said: I made a thread recently, and my amateur prediction is that due to the course/route around the barycenter, SC 25 will be similar to SC23. So my prediction... SC 25: +/- 5% of SSN 180 (170-190) And all of us radio amateurs and CME aficionados ( sp?) are hoping you and coincidentally Scott Mckintosh have this become reality sooner or later. We don’t care somuch. Haha. Mike On 2/17/2023 at 11:00 AM, Archmonoth said: I made a thread recently, and my amateur prediction is that due to the course/route around the barycenter, SC 25 will be similar to SC23. So my prediction... SC 25: +/- 5% of SSN 180 (170-190) And all of us radio amateurs and CME aficionados ( sp?) are hoping you and coincidentally Scott Mckintosh have this become reality sooner or later. We don’t care somuch. Haha. Mike Oops. Must be senility. Repeating mahself again and again and again. Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/21/2023 at 3:32 PM, Drax Spacex said: "GIMP gives me a headache." Yes. Totally 😂 Doesnt fit in here as well, but yes that is true, ive made edited pictures with gimp as the latest AR (3576) came 'round the limb, and sometimes its a nightmare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Since we now have latest monthly mean figures for SN and 10.7cm flux I thought I would update the graph of projected growth. Alternatively, what would it take to match the Projected Smoothed Sunspot Numbers published on the Solen website? Edited February 11 by 3gMike Updated smoothed values and add alternative chart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: Since we now have latest monthly mean figures for SN and 10.7cm flux I thought I would update the graph of projected growth. Well, thanks for that Mike. I think you may be a bit less speculative than myself. But it is still looking pretty good for the next six months at least. I guess since we have both read the STCE summary. It can be safely assumed that the polar reversal has begun. The only “ wild cards” are as I see it are: How wild will things get, and how long will the final peak last? Edited February 11 by hamateur 1953 Grammar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 An interesting update from Jan Alvestad on the Solen website....... Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of February 11, 2024 The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 As an absolute beginner I would like to point out something and ask another question... When I take a closer look to the sun cycle data, there is most of the time a M formed shape in the maximum amplitude of the sun cycle. Especially in the last two SC. Right now we are far away from that shape, that's why I don't believe we're already reached max. There will be another bump up in the cycle curve in my opinion. Is these M shape in the SC max curve coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Ingolf said: As an absolute beginner I would like to point out something and ask another question... When I take a closer look to the sun cycle data, there is most of the time a M formed shape in the maximum amplitude of the sun cycle. Especially in the last two SC. Right now we are far away from that shape, that's why I don't believe we're already reached max. There will be another bump up in the cycle curve in my opinion. Is these M shape in the SC max curve coincidence? you are right. these are called Gnevyshev's peaks. usually the first peak goes and the second, bigger or smaller, occurs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So is going to be good for aurora borealis watching and ok for tech because if it’s the same as 23 it might have high xs If it’s the same as sc19 that would be whooo sunspot total of that cycle was The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 285.0 If it the same as sc23 it might have sunspots around this number give or take Max count 180.3 It says Max count 125 (smoothed as of now on Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Ingolf Posted February 13 Popular Post Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: So is going to be good for aurora borealis watching and ok for tech because if it’s the same as 23 it might have high xs Hey there, I would like to give you a suggestion if it is okay for you. You should absolutely stop reading or watching articles of these sensational doomsday people out there. All the information you want is right here in the forum, without destroyed technology. There is no need to worry for you. Don't make yourself crazy with all these click bait doomsday videos. This will not gonna happen. The only people that will have issues are radio operators, but I'm pretty sure they will survive the HF Band degradation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ok sorry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: An interesting update from Jan Alvestad on the Solen website....... Update on the progress of solar cycle 25 as of February 11, 2024 The relatively high solar activity during the first weeks of 2024 has changed the outlook regarding solar max. The first peak in June 2023 currently has a less than 10% probability of being the actual solar max. The next candidate month is October 2023 (October 8-11 if zooming in on a specific date). The likelihood of October 2023 surpassing June 2023 is at least 50%. It is still likely that solar max will be sometime between October 2023 and March 2025. That is very refreshing news @3gMike If I am not mistaken, it more or less brings most of the scientific minds into rough agreement on SC 25 and its future evolution. Thank you for posting that, I will read Jan Alvestad’s latest summary. I haven’t been to solen site in a few weeks now, unusual for me, but hey the sun is certainly becoming a lot more active of late, best regards, Mike/ Hagrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, tniickck said: you are right. these are called Gnevyshev's peaks. usually the first peak goes and the second, bigger or smaller, occurs I found this article discussing this theory, and using it to predict cycle max some 3 to 4 years in advance. Whilst it seems to work moderately well for earlier cycles, the prediction for Cycle 25 seems to be particularly low. https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/520/4/5586/7036788?login=false 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, 3gMike said: I found this article discussing this theory, and using it to predict cycle max some 3 to 4 years in advance. Whilst it seems to work moderately well for earlier cycles, the prediction for Cycle 25 seems to be particularly low. https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/520/4/5586/7036788?login=false Agreed @3gMike Honestly even attempting to track the typical 27 day repeats successfully has given me fits. This cycle seems to buck several previously held notions of cycle evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) For some reason I was unable to find the old thread “ growth of cycle 25” by @3gMike started awhile back this cycle. Anyway I will ask the question here of Mike. Do we yet have good data as far as the northern polar region? I think you were referring to WSO data if my memory is correct. Thanks! Mike. @3gMike may very well occupied. It’s certainly ok by me if others familiar with the polar reversal apparently underway at present and have some good data chime in here. I now remember @Philaletheswas diagramming the succession of zero crossings last year with some good graphics also… Tnx Edited February 25 by hamateur 1953 Recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: For some reason I was unable to find the old thread “ growth of cycle 25” by @3gMike started awhile back this cycle. Anyway I will ask the question here of Mike. Do we yet have good data as far as the northern polar region? I think you were referring to WSO data if my memory is correct. Thanks! Mike. @3gMike may very well occupied. It’s certainly ok by me if others familiar with the polar reversal apparently underway at present and have some good data chime in here. I now remember @Philaletheswas diagramming the succession of zero crossings last year with some good graphics also… Tnx That thread is here. And yeah, I've posted a few plots there, but mostly of the HMI polar field data rather than the WSO data. I was planning to post some updated plots when the February values are all in. In the WSO data the average northern field still has yet to fully flip after having flipped back; for SC24 that happened early in 2014, shortly before maximum, but that's of course no guarantee that the same will happen for SC25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Philalethes said: That thread is here. And yeah, I've posted a few plots there, but mostly of the HMI polar field data rather than the WSO data. I was planning to post some updated plots when the February values are all in. In the WSO data the average northern field still has yet to fully flip after having flipped back; for SC24 that happened early in 2014, shortly before maximum, but that's of course no guarantee that the same will happen for SC25. Thank you @Philalethes appreciate this. Mike. Edit: I am learning as I go on this subject matter and although most in the forum are very familiar with the topic it is all quite new to me. Edited February 25 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 The following indicators for future trends in March 2024 are available and will be updated on a monthly basis. 365-day smoothed 10.7 Solar flux: 150 SSN : 110 2K SNN: 240 1K SSN: 160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The following indicators for future trends in March 2024 are available and will be updated on a monthly basis. 365-day smoothed 10.7 Solar flux: 150 SSN : 110 2K SNN: 240 1K SSN: 160 Patrick, I would like to understand how you derive these numbers, and what you mean them to represent. You say that they are indicators for future trends in March 2024. 1. How far in the future? 2. You indicate 365 day smoothing. That suggests that by the end of March 2024 you have averaged values up to October 1st 2023. Reading the plot on Jan Alvestad's site suggests the last 365d averaged values would be 10.7cm flux: 157 ISN: 124 2K SSN: 277 1K SSN: 176 Are you using these numbers to predict the numbers you presented above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Wow, This is why I am glad you are back, Mike. I just assumed @Patrick P.A. Geryl was pulling current stuff directly off of Solen. He began posting all over the boards. I am hoping we haven’t lost too many people recently. 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: Patrick, I would like to understand how you derive these numbers, and what you mean them to represent. You say that they are indicators for future trends in March 2024. 1. How far in the future? 2. You indicate 365 day smoothing. That suggests that by the end of March 2024 you have averaged values up to October 1st 2023. Reading the plot on Jan Alvestad's site suggests the last 365d averaged values would be 10.7cm flux: 157 ISN: 124 2K SSN: 277 1K SSN: 176 Are you using these numbers to predict the numbers you presented above? It got fairly heated at one point. This is probably an understatement. I’d rather not drag that subject matter up here again, Mike. Contact me via pm if you would like a more in-depth rendition. Later, Mike. Oh yeah. Cat got an upgrade to my trusted advisor due to the hilarious meme posted by @libmar96 in memes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) 7 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, I would like to understand how you derive these numbers, and what you mean them to represent. You say that they are indicators for future trends in March 2024. 1. How far in the future? 2. You indicate 365 day smoothing. That suggests that by the end of March 2024 you have averaged values up to October 1st 2023. Reading the plot on Jan Alvestad's site suggests the last 365d averaged values would be 10.7cm flux: 157 ISN: 124 2K SSN: 277 1K SSN: 176 Are you using these numbers to predict the numbers you presented above? Yes these numbers 2K SSN = 266! I use the formula (F10.7/SSN - 1).... as described in my paper https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377064732_Calculating_the_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_Using_365-day_Smoothing With it you can calculate the downslope of the cycle till the end.... Just like I calculated the maximum Working on it, but needs more work... We will know in a few months how close the first attempt works To measure the downslope of the 10.7 solar flux, you need to subtract the baseline of 64 from the maximum value 158.71 - 64 = 94,71 94,71 125,81 275,72 179,99 Year 2024 (10.7 sfu-64) ISN 2K 1K End January -182 93,0 123,5 270,6 178,4 End February - 182 93,4 124,6 268,9 177,3 End March -182 93,3 123,1 266,7 176,0 End April -182 End May -182 End June -182 Difference measured Maximum Year 2024 10,7 solar flux ISN 2K 1K End January -182 -1,8 -1,8 -1,9 -0,9 End February - 182 -1,4 -0,9 -2,5 -1,5 End March -182 -1,5 -2,1 -3,3 -2,2 Edited April 8 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) Will repost original perhaps at a later date Edited April 8 by hamateur 1953 Wrong area will reconsider later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Yes these numbers 2K SSN = 266! I use the formula (F10.7/SSN - 1).... as described in my paper https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377064732_Calculating_the_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_Using_365-day_Smoothing With it you can calculate the downslope of the cycle till the end.... Just like I calculated the maximum Working on it, but needs more work... We will know in a few months how close the first attempt works To measure the downslope of the 10.7 solar flux, you need to subtract the baseline of 64 from the maximum value 158.71 - 64 = 94,71 94,71 125,81 275,72 179,99 Year 2024 (10.7 sfu-64) ISN 2K 1K End January -182 93,0 123,5 270,6 178,4 End February - 182 93,4 124,6 268,9 177,3 End March -182 93,3 123,1 266,7 176,0 End April -182 End May -182 End June -182 One note, for forecasts it would be good to say it is a forecast or prediction. Then you can't call -182 day smoothing 365 day smoothing with it only being the previous 182 days for obvious reasons, and solar maximum is still to be determined for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 (edited) Working on formula. Still needs improvement. End month -182 days = final value We had the minimum right in our peer reviewed paper. Place your bets. Are we right or is NASA right? Will they fail again? Edited April 8 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Working on formula. Still needs improvement. End month -182 days = final value We had the minimum right in our peer reviewed paper. Place your bets. Are we right or is NASA right? Will they fail again? Solar minimum would be the easier one to predict early in theory. Typically there is one drop and when the solar activity picks up there would be a higher possibility the next cycle started. Right now we are likely in the lull between the 1st and 2nd peak of SC25. What the 2nd peak will be like, all we can do is wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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