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Latest SC25 Predictions


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Op 22/4/2024 om 13:21, hamateur 1953 zei:

That makes sense.  Especially If you are correlating SFI and Sunspot Numbers. Honestly there are so darn many ways of counting sunspots, it alone could start an international incident.  The Europeans have a slight edge on us given we Americans are late to the party, by a few hours.  Fortunately DRAO ( NRC) is still worldwide F 10.7. Haha.  Thanks Mike. 

13 month smoothed 10.7 flux and SSN stays in June 2023😊

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It seems pretty surprising with April's spike in activity seemingly out of nowhere. Given what happened in April, it seems like anything can happen at this point. If May's sunspot number reaches 111.7, we will have a preliminary tie for solar maximum candidates.

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45 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

If May's sunspot number reaches 111.7, we will have a preliminary tie for solar maximum candidates.

It doesn't seem to be a hard number to reach either! Also, my dear friend predicted that Jan 2025 will be the solar peak due to the alignment of the rocks and gas surrounding the sun! Solar max will reach exaltation before the retrograde of sunspot numbers and in conjunction with solar activity or something!

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13 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

It doesn't seem to be a hard number to reach either! Also, my dear friend predicted that Jan 2025 will be the solar peak due to the alignment of the rocks and gas surrounding the sun! Solar max will reach exaltation before the retrograde of sunspot numbers and in conjunction with solar activity or something!

However the Mayan people have yet to weigh in on this cycle as far as I am aware…. 

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On 5/1/2024 at 11:45 AM, 3gMike said:

That is strange Patrick. You normally claim that the 365 day smoothing is the better measure, and in this case Jan has shown peak 10.7 flux on 28 October !!

Speaking of 10.7 flux.  It seems as though our latest dip only got down to around 132 or so.   USAF looking ahead currently shows a maximum in two weeks or so of 160 or so.   I would expect a revision upwards of 200 or better, although they are typically a bit more conservative. Incidentally we are at 156 as I post this with more incoming north.  It wouldn’t surprise me if our ss numbers for May easily push those into record levels  as would have April without the record plunge early on.  

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11 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Speaking of 10.7 flux.  It seems as though our latest dip only got down to around 132 or so.   USAF looking ahead currently shows a maximum in two weeks or so of 160 or so.   I would expect a revision upwards of 200 or better, although they are typically a bit more conservative. Incidentally we are at 156 as I post this with more incoming north.  It wouldn’t surprise me if our ss numbers for May easily push those into record levels  as would have April without the record plunge early on.  

Definitely growing at the moment. I would not be surprised if the current October (365day smoothed) peak moves into November during this rotation.

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So I just rechecked USAF predicted 10.7 and they show a peak of  205 around ten days from now.  SS numbers are even more difficult to predict even short term imo. But it would be nice to see 200 mean for May! Unlikely but would be nice. 😇

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1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

So I just rechecked USAF predicted 10.7 and they show a peak of  205 around ten days from now.  SS numbers are even more difficult to predict even short term imo. But it would be nice to see 200 mean for May! Unlikely but would be nice. 😇

Sunspot numbers seemed to have been jumping around the last couple of weeks due to many regions coming and going but 200 mean would be nice to see.

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If you’re referring to latitudes..

11 minutes ago, StargazingHippy said:

What do the recent positions of the sunspots have to say about the cycle?

We currently have a few around 25 I think and if this keeps up for the next few months, it could be inferred that we haven’t passed the last peak of this cycle.  IMO. This is the first cycle I have watched this closely cuz I have the interest.  So we will still need to await real scientific assessment in a couple of years I imagine. Mike

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For the first 6 days of the month, we are currently at a preliminary 151.66 sunspot number average for the month. The large sunspot cluster is looming over the southeastern limb in 171 imagery, so we'll see if that can keep the numbers up.

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2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

For the first 6 days of the month, we are currently at a preliminary 151.66 sunspot number average for the month. The large sunspot cluster is looming over the southeastern limb in 171 imagery, so we'll see if that can keep the numbers up.

The region to the left of AR 3664 is growing rapidly now too so we'll likely stay up for awhile.

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34 minutes ago, mozy said:

The region to the left of AR 3664 is growing rapidly now too so we'll likely stay up for awhile.

is it its own region? I thought its a delta? Is it a beta then? Maybe im looking at the wrong one. pic appreciated!

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

is it its own region? I thought its a delta? Is it a beta then? Maybe im looking at the wrong one. pic appreciated!

Already deltas involved.

7302e7e3bd6b5be9c317059a586da6e1.jpg

Edited by mozy
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1 minute ago, mozy said:

Already deltas involved.

7302e7e3bd6b5be9c317059a586da6e1.jpg

You mean the big one south? I genuinely thought that’s part of the region to its right. Isn’t that a bit close?

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

You mean the big one south? I genuinely thought that’s part of the region to its right. Isn’t that a bit close?

I think It's a separate region that's growing north south rather than west-east

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13 minutes ago, mozy said:

I think It's a separate region that's growing north south rather than west-east

If it’s a standalone region it has been some time since I saw two that close I think 

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Just now, MinYoongi said:

If it’s a standalone region it has been some time since I saw two that close I think 

We saw the same thing just some week/weeks ago with that huge cluster of sunspots center disk.

Happens often.

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Posted (edited)


The latest monthly smoothed value (October 2023) is now 124.8, Just half a sunspot short of the preliminary max of June (125.3).

Who will do the math what number is required for this May to beat that? 😄
 

Untitled.png

Edited by helios
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5 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Heh, I happen to have a script for just that! That number would be a monthly SN of 112.8 for May, which would bring the SSN for November to 125.4. The average for May so far is 158.1, so we're doing quite well in that regard.

More good news.  Just keeps looking up.  Excellent😎

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A sunspot number of 111.7 would bring November 2023 to tie as the next solar maximum candidate. May's preliminary average through the 13th is now 165.76. Even if the rest of the days of the month have a sunspot number of 80, it would still be an average of over 115. Maybe we are headed into the second peak already.

I think the Sun would pretty much need to blow up at this point to not have a new solar cycle 25 peak.

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3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

A sunspot number of 111.7 would bring November 2023 to tie as the next solar maximum candidate. May's preliminary average through the 13th is now 165.76. Even if the rest of the days of the month have a sunspot number of 80, it would still be an average of over 115. Maybe we are headed into the second peak already.

I think the Sun would pretty much need to blow up at this point to not have a new solar cycle 25 peak.

Well according to someone known as Ben the sun will blow up and kill us so maybe that will happen. I just hope I get a heads up so I can stop paying my bills.

Jokes aside, I think we will see a new peak this summer. Latitude of the regions gets more and more centered to the equator now.

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