Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 3 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: So that appears to be suggesting that you consider a Ceres-Ceres coincidence (with Ceres being a tiny planetoid at some distance from the Sun) has greater significance than a Mercury-Mercury coincidence, with Mercury being the closest planet to the Sun. Also, you have not explained how you arrive at the figure of 10 hours prior to your previous prediction. Looking at the original prediction I assume that you expected it to happen at 14:30 when the Uranus-Pallas-Mercury Triple came into effect, but now you are saying it happened at 04:00 with opposition Mercury-Ceres, because the earlier triple was already active - is that correct? Yes you are correct. However, there is no sunspot activity. So maybe there is something else that made them disappear and probably could have an effect on the more complex ones… By looking closer I found an unusual amount of unused Triples… maybe that could be a reason for the lower activity… The next week could learn us more… 40 minuten geleden, WildWill zei: I visited this page this morning and noticed that it has an astrology tab at the bottom… How do you tell if Mercury is in retrograde? Cheers! We only use the astronomical alignments. Read the other papers if you want to know everything… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 35 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Yes you are correct. However, there is no sunspot activity. So maybe there is something else that made them disappear and probably could have an effect on the more complex ones… By looking closer I found an unusual amount of unused Triples… maybe that could be a reason for the lower activity… The next week could learn us more… Apologies for so many questions - I have three more! 1. When there are many triples simultaneously active how do you decide which ones are relevant, and which will be unused? 2. Do you factor in the base level of solar flux to your calculations? 3. How do you deal with the possibility of multiple sunspots appearing simultaneously, and in that event how do you decide which alignments relate to which spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 9 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Apologies for so many questions - I have three more! 1. When there are many triples simultaneously active how do you decide which ones are relevant, and which will be unused? 2. Do you factor in the base level of solar flux to your calculations? 3. How do you deal with the possibility of multiple sunspots appearing simultaneously, and in that event how do you decide which alignments relate to which spots? 1. Unused is that there are no conjunctions or oppositions with which they could react. 2.No I don’t factor the flux. Complex sunspots increase the flux. The lul currently has a reason… searching… 3. There are only a few complex sunspots a month. It is rare that they appear at the same time. The Farside maps help and also the possible reactions give a clue which one it should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) 13 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: May 29 (11:15) – June 12 (09:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Vesta - Ceres June 7 (04:00) – 8 (15:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Ceres across the Sun June 7 (14:30) – July 1 (09:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas – Mercury In this case the first Triple gives an alignment 10 hours before the second Triple on the side of Ceres. We need to wait a few days before we see it on the Farside… Today looks spotless Patrick. Again, how many triples result in nothing? What is your prediction rate of triples with or without sunspots? 13 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: This is a basic fault that everybody could have found… When will somebody help me in checking these faults? Please define what you mean by "basic fault", your terms are a little vague. Edited June 8, 2022 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Hi Patrick! I have a challenge for you. How about making a prediction for all the spots next week. From 12:01am (GMT) through 11:59pm Sunday (June 13-19). Then we can evaluate your theory with: A) How many spot on predictions (pun intended) B) How many no-shows C) How many unpredicted spots appear Then, if it fares pretty well, we can try and determine what other factors are involved. Also, have you given any consideration to my observation that all the celestial bodies you are using don’t have magnetospheres? (With the exception of Mercury, which is very close and has a very weak magnetic field) Cheers! Alexander the Great 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bry Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 On 5/31/2022 at 8:21 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Second question. We need to know if it will show up in the northern or Southern Hemisphere from the Sun. Theory: it is related to the position of the equator field of the Sun or maybe the ecliptic. The Earth-sun plane is called the ecliptic. Most major planets in our solar system stay within 3 degrees of the ecliptic. Mercury is the exception; its orbit is inclined to the ecliptic by 7 degrees. The dwarf planet Pluto is a widely known exception to this rule. Its orbit is inclined to the ecliptic by more than 17 degrees. is there anybody who can find the positions of Mercury, Ceres and Uranus on that day against the equator of the Sun? I thought this animation might show how much the planets move above and below the plane of ecliptic of our solar system. She even mentions the tilt of the ecliptic plane compared to the solar system equator. Looks like mercury oscillates the fastest, then earth? Here is a list of orbital inclinations with respect to solar equator. I guess the ecliptic is just from earths reference. Seems like quite of bit of activity has happened earthside since mercury and Ceres has been on the other side of the sun from us lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 5 uren geleden, Bry zei: I thought this animation might show how much the planets move above and below the plane of ecliptic of our solar system. She even mentions the tilt of the ecliptic plane compared to the solar system equator. Looks like mercury oscillates the fastest, then earth? Here is a list of orbital inclinations with respect to solar equator. I guess the ecliptic is just from earths reference. Seems like quite of bit of activity has happened earthside since mercury and Ceres has been on the other side of the sun from us lately! Nice finding. The hemispheric sunspot numbers sometimes differ a lot in sunspot cycles. If you could relate that to Jupiter, Saturn … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bry Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 (edited) 20 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The hemispheric sunspot numbers sometimes differ a lot in sunspot cycles. If you could relate that to Jupiter, Saturn … The first thing I noticed more from that awesome gif and list is how earth has the greatest inclination (travels farthest north and south of plane) and also moves second fastest? Seems like more evidence beyond gravity to why earth would influence the suns angular momentum. But maybe more importantly it might influence what is considered “earth directed” solar activity during its peak inclinations during equinoxes (March and September) when the earth is at its peak orbital inclinations from the sun. Apparently we have a better view of the suns poles and differential rotation on the surface... and maybe in line of fire of higher latitude sunspots directed north or south giving us a greater Bz magnitude and geoeffective effect! So in September we should experience more geoeffective sunspots from the suns northern hemisphere, and in March we should expect the sunspots in the Southern Hemisphere to be more likely to be geoeffective... and at the solstices (June and December) equatorial sunspots should be more geoeffective. “The Sun's rotation axis is tilted by about 7.25 degrees from the axis of the Earth's orbit so we see more of the Sun's north pole in September of each year and more of its south pole in March.Jan 22, 2013” from: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html For Jupiter and Saturn, because their orbital inclination speed is so slow and magnitude less than earths... I assume they are more likely to have longer term effects on the solar cycle than the planets that oscillate more frequently. I assume the tilt of the overall solar system’s rotation with relation to the Milky Way galaxy (60 degrees) might be more important for affecting “solar seasons” or solar cycle intensity than orbital inclination of each planet just from the suns rotating plane. Especially when Jupiter and Saturn are sticking out of the galactic plane at their orbital maximums like they are right now! Jupiter and Saturn and Neptune are close to their lowest inclination (-60degrees) at the moment, from the galaxy plane and are currently sticking out south of the the galaxy. Seems like Jupiter’s orbital inclination from the galactic plane could potentially influence our solar cycles intensity. To summarize: in the fall, earth is south of galactic plane -60 degrees and inclined north of solar equator. In the spring the earth is above the galactic plane 60 degrees and is orbitally inclined below the solar equator. This might explain why earth gets more activity around equinoxes potentially, and entirely explains to me earths parahelion and aphelion locations at solstices! I say solar tilt is important because earths tilt (23.5 degrees) accounts for why we have seasons as we orbit and sets our regions of most solar irradiation on earth between the tropics of Cancer (latitude: 23.5N) and Capricorn (latitude: -23.5S) where our largest storms (hurricanes) are usually constrained to. That would mean “the suns tropics” would be between solar latitudes 60N and -60S, (the same as it’s suns tilt from galaxy) and might be why we observe sunspots restrained to these regions (assuming the center of the Milky Way galaxy is some source of radiation like our sun on earth). That’s a huge region for tropics covering most of the sun (120 degrees of “tropical” activity) compared to earths tropics (47 degrees of tropics)! This might account for why the sun has more active dynamics on its surface than earth. In general, it seems that planets with less tilt would see less extreme weather dynamics on its surface. Thus the orbital inclination of each planet to the sun (btwn 5-7.25 degrees) and solar systems 60 degree tilt to the plane of our galaxy might explain why certain solar hemispheres and longitudes might see more sunspots... At least that’s what I’m thinking. Apparently awesome people who actually study this find polar filaments form around this solar latitude (55 degrees). I didn’t realize filaments occurred primarily in a certain solar latitude till this! Considering polar filaments form at or above the latitude of the suns tilt magnitude (~55-60 degrees), that could make them more equivalent to our mid latitude cyclones (above 23.5 degrees N&S) which can be more powerful than our hurricanes in supercells with tornadoes. Filaments seem rather powerful to me relative to flares from sunspots below them. Always fun to compare different rotating spheres and their effects on the surface. Random fact: I just learned that warm-blooded animals evolved one galactic year ago (~230million yrs).. Wonder what was different during that orbit? Edited July 28, 2022 by Bry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 29, 2022 Author Share Posted July 29, 2022 8 uren geleden, Bry zei: The first thing I noticed more from that awesome gif and list is how earth has the greatest inclination (travels farthest north and south of plane) and also moves second fastest? Seems like more evidence beyond gravity to why earth would influence the suns angular momentum. But maybe more importantly it might influence what is considered “earth directed” solar activity during its peak inclinations during equinoxes (March and September) when the earth is at its peak orbital inclinations from the sun. Apparently we have a better view of the suns poles and differential rotation on the surface... and maybe in line of fire of higher latitude sunspots directed north or south giving us a greater Bz magnitude and geoeffective effect! So in September we should experience more geoeffective sunspots from the suns northern hemisphere, and in March we should expect the sunspots in the Southern Hemisphere to be more likely to be geoeffective... and at the solstices (June and December) equatorial sunspots should be more geoeffective. “The Sun's rotation axis is tilted by about 7.25 degrees from the axis of the Earth's orbit so we see more of the Sun's north pole in September of each year and more of its south pole in March.Jan 22, 2013” from: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html For Jupiter and Saturn, because their orbital inclination speed is so slow and magnitude less than earths... I assume they are more likely to have longer term effects on the solar cycle than the planets that oscillate more frequently. I assume the tilt of the overall solar system’s rotation with relation to the Milky Way galaxy (60 degrees) might be more important for affecting “solar seasons” or solar cycle intensity than orbital inclination of each planet just from the suns rotating plane. Especially when Jupiter and Saturn are sticking out of the galactic plane at their orbital maximums like they are right now! Jupiter and Saturn and Neptune are close to their lowest inclination (-60degrees) at the moment, from the galaxy plane and are currently sticking out south of the the galaxy. Seems like Jupiter’s orbital inclination from the galactic plane could potentially influence our solar cycles intensity. To summarize: in the fall, earth is south of galactic plane -60 degrees and inclined north of solar equator. In the spring the earth is above the galactic plane 60 degrees and is orbitally inclined below the solar equator. This might explain why earth gets more activity around equinoxes potentially, and entirely explains to me earths parahelion and aphelion locations at solstices! I say solar tilt is important because earths tilt (23.5 degrees) accounts for why we have seasons as we orbit and sets our regions of most solar irradiation on earth between the tropics of Cancer (latitude: 23.5N) and Capricorn (latitude: -23.5S) where our largest storms (hurricanes) are usually constrained to. That would mean “the suns tropics” would be between solar latitudes 60N and -60S, (the same as it’s suns tilt from galaxy) and might be why we observe sunspots restrained to these regions (assuming the center of the Milky Way galaxy is some source of radiation like our sun on earth). That’s a huge region for tropics covering most of the sun (120 degrees of “tropical” activity) compared to earths tropics (47 degrees of tropics)! This might account for why the sun has more active dynamics on its surface than earth. In general, it seems that planets with less tilt would see less extreme weather dynamics on its surface. Thus the orbital inclination of each planet to the sun (btwn 5-7.25 degrees) and solar systems 60 degree tilt to the plane of our galaxy might explain why certain solar hemispheres and longitudes might see more sunspots... At least that’s what I’m thinking. Apparently awesome people who actually study this find polar filaments form around this solar latitude (55 degrees). I didn’t realize filaments occurred primarily in a certain solar latitude till this! Considering polar filaments form at or above the latitude of the suns tilt magnitude (~55-60 degrees), that could make them more equivalent to our mid latitude cyclones (above 23.5 degrees N&S) which can be more powerful than our hurricanes in supercells with tornadoes. Filaments seem rather powerful to me relative to flares from sunspots below them. Always fun to compare different rotating spheres and their effects on the surface. Random fact: I just learned that warm-blooded animals evolved one galactic year ago (~230million yrs).. Wonder what was different during that orbit? Mmmm… interesting… The polar filaments are directly related to the polar fields… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 10, 2022 Author Share Posted August 10, 2022 Op 8/6/2022 om 18:13, 3gMike zei: Apologies for so many questions - I have three more! 1. When there are many triples simultaneously active how do you decide which ones are relevant, and which will be unused? Mercury is on this side of the Sun… possible to make pic with alignments? No idea where the spot will appear… take August 15 as starting date August 3 (00:30) – 22 (09:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Ceres August 14 (11:00) – 16 (00:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Pallas across the Sun August 15 (11:00) – 23 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Pluto August 15 (23:15) – 18 (15:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Earth - Mercury 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Op 10/8/2022 om 10:47, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: Mercury is on this side of the Sun… possible to make pic with alignments? No idea where the spot will appear… take August 15 as starting date August 3 (00:30) – 22 (09:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Ceres August 14 (11:00) – 16 (00:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Pallas across the Sun August 15 (11:00) – 23 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Pluto August 15 (23:15) – 18 (15:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Earth - Mercury Mike. 13082 should be this one. Looks to me at Mercury opposition place… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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