AR2992: X2.25 flare!

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Orneno said:

With the Parker Spiral effect, it’s possible, as far as I know 

Oh yeah- I forgot about that. 

[Flareguy18]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Sorry for distracting you 😅

LOL, you're good... it's the SWL alerts that a solar flare was in progress that are the first to get my attention.

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

With the Parker Spiral effect, it’s possible, as far as I know 

I agree, there is a possibility of one. I've seen limb events produce pretty significant radiation storms in the past.

[MinYoongi]

11 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

LOL, you're good... it's the SWL alerts that a solar flare was in progress that are the first to get my attention.

I agree, there is a possibility of one. I've seen limb events produce pretty significant radiation storms in the past.

How long have you been following space weather?

 

I Think any radiaton storm wouldve made itself noticeable by now?

[Flareguy18]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

How long have you been following space weather?

 

I Think any radiaton storm wouldve made itself noticeable by now?

I began watching for space weather near the beginning of Solar Cycle 24, so about 2009 or 2010.

Solar radiation storms can sometimes take hours to manifest. We will have to watch the proton flux data for a while to be sure.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Flareguy18 said:

I began watching for space weather near the beginning of Solar Cycle 24, so about 2009 or 2010.

Solar radiation storms can sometimes take hours to manifest. We will have to watch the proton flux data for a while to be sure.

I did not knew that. Thank you!

[KW2P]

29 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Whats SFI

As was answered by LunarLights58, it's the 10.7 cm or 2800 MHz radio signal emitted by the sun. It appears to emanate from the chromosphere. It was found long ago that the strength of the 10.7 cm radio signal from the sun correlated pretty well with sunspots and overall radiation. This was handy because the radio signal was measurable from the ground before we had space-based measurements and we have long-term precise measurements going back to 1947.

SFI is the single-number value that, for radioheads like me, expresses how much "help" the sun is giving us for radio propagation. At the bottom of the cycle, the number hovers around 72 and we're all depressed. Anything above 100 is an improvement. 130 is good. 160 and above is what we want to see at the top of a solar cycle. A cycle that tops 200 is what everyone dreams of because the upper shortwave bands open up for worldwide communication 24/7 and is super exciting for radio people.

[FredSchuller]

It's no replacement for STEREO-B, but Solar Orbiter is currently 153 deg west of the Earth-Sun line, thus well located to observe this region. Looking forward to see the images when they become available... In particular, the STIX instrument will provide high resolution X-ray data.

 

[Sammyy]

I was lookin through the archive the other day. And noticed that sometimes x-flares come very close together. Like 3 days in a row. Especially somwhat early in a solar cycle. It seems a little similar to whats happening now. With the exception of the majority of the flares being m-flares

Edited April 20, 2022 by Sammyy

[Vancanneyt Sander]

10 minuten geleden, Sammyy zei:

I was lookin through the archive the other day. And noticed that sometimes x-flares come very close together. Like 3 days in a row. Especially somwhat early in a solar cycle. It seems a little similar to whats happening now. With the exception of the majority of the flares being m-flares

that's normal when there are magnetically complex regions that are capable of producing strong solar flares. . Although 'early' in the cycle, it's still behind SC24 and SC23 in terms of X and M-class flares but we still have 8 months to go.  See our solar cycle tracking page where we have a graph with the number of C, M and X-class events per year.

[Chris, HB9DFG]

6 hours ago, KW2P said:

Yes, indeed.  SFI is up to 160 now. Wow. (Main page of SWL hasn't updated yet.) 

Hello all

This I am wondering, too. Both, Spaceweather and Spaceweatherlive are at 135 the last days.
Jan Alvestad has the 160 since early morning ready. So why this delay in updating on both
common sites?

Regards, Chris

[Sammyy]

56 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

that's normal when there are magnetically complex regions that are capable of producing strong solar flares. . Although 'early' in the cycle, it's still behind SC24 and SC23 in terms of X and M-class flares but we still have 8 months to go.  See our solar cycle tracking page where we have a graph with the number of C, M and X-class events per year.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. From what I understand cycle 23 lasted at least 1 year longer than expected. Maybe that had an affect on solar cycle 24.

Anyhow, if you look at the amount of C, M & X flares so far this year. And expect the same amount of them over the whole year it would be slightly higher than solar cycle 24.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

that's normal when there are magnetically complex regions that are capable of producing strong solar flares.

Exactly. 

[mozy]

Can this region leave us alone already lol, I keep getting baited from these flares 😅

[Solarflaretracker200]

It’s kinda annoying 😂 

[Sam Warfel]

Yeah I hate these west limb mega-flares

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, mozy said:

Can this region leave us alone already lol, I keep getting baited from these flares 😅

Wasnt 2993/2994 the reason for the M flare just now?

[Sammyy]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Exactly. 

Well so far in the cycle they haven't achieved that pattern of x-flares continuously over 2-3 days. Which is why I mentioned it. Since it seems likely to occur now or almost close to. As far as I understand the latest x-flare wasn't from the area which one would expect another x-flare from either

[mozy]

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Wasnt 2993/2994 the reason for the M flare just now?

Nah

[MinYoongi]

10 minutes ago, mozy said:

Nah

But looking at SDO it was.

Im talking about the M class in the past hour.

[Solarflaretracker200]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But looking at SDO it was.

Then it probably was

[Sam Warfel]

28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But looking at SDO it was.

Im talking about the M class in the past hour.

I’m pretty sure I saw it from 2992

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

I’m pretty sure I saw it from 2992

Youre right. Some minor flaring or whatever was simultaneously occuring in 2993/4 so I thought that was it. I now revisited imagery

[KW2P]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Yeah I hate these west limb mega-flares

Different strokes for different folks, as they used to say.

I like them a lot because they raise UV and X radiation flux WITHOUT throwing a CME at us. This is ideal.

High radiation = good.  CME = bad.  From the standpoint of me and millions of radioheads.

Since none of us are controlling this, if a big CME happens, so be it. I'll watch the aurora along with everyone else. But I'd rather be easily communicating by radio with someone halfway around the planet using just 15 watts of power rather than 1500 watts to produce faint signals that are hard to copy amidst the noise.

There are many forms of radio that don't depend on ionospheric propagation (VHF, microwaves, moonbounce, satellite operation) but my favorite field of radio is HF (shortwave), which is all about the ionosphere.

What we all have in common here is an intense interest in the sun, just for different reasons. 🙂

[AurorahunterPA]

2 hours ago, mozy said:

Can this region leave us alone already lol, I keep getting baited from these flares 😅

I know, EVERY CME is directed away! like come on I just bought a new camera!!!!

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, AurorahunterPA said:

I know, EVERY CME is directed away! like come on I just bought a new camera!!!!

Yes, me too !!  Looks like we may have to wait until the Autumnal Equinox. The nights keep getting brighter for the next few months.