MinYoongi Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: If I was only not in the city, I would have caught the auroras on my Timelapse (I need G3 or more) Im sorry you missed it friend. Next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Im sorry you missed it friend. Next time! My timelapse had been going for awhile and it was midnight. Strangely I woke up at the time and having a random thought of driving out to see the aurora. But I was too tired to see if it was legit or my mind was playing with me. Idk maybe it was a coincidence haha. (I was asleep when It happened. And I used my tablet and a epic app, and plug my tablet in to some random charger, then set it up to a window and boom timelapse.) Eh, oh well. There were some passing clouds time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said: My timelapse had been going for awhile and it was midnight. Strangely I woke up at the time and having a random thought of driving out to see the aurora. But I was too tired to see if it was legit or my mind was playing with me. Idk maybe it was a coincidence haha. (I was asleep when It happened. And I used my tablet and a epic app, and plug my tablet in to some random charger, then set it up to a window and boom timelapse.) You got a 6th sense :P!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: You got a 6th sense :P!! Lmaooo. I almost wonder sometimes, let me give you another example of something like that. 10 minutes before the X Class happened, I had this most random feeling that something big is going to happed. So I go on this website and I watch thinking "Oh nothing is going to happen. This is just another random thing my brain is doing" So then a few minutes pass and literally as the X class starts (It was a C as the time) I got this insane feeling that a X class was going to happen. Then boom it did. Weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) I was out last night in Scotland locally. UTC 5.00 or about that. Sky was mostly clear. Kp supposedly 5, but I saw absolutely no aurora, not even dim or diffuse glow (moon was present though and dawn beginning). Did this kp 7 happen after this time? Edited April 10, 2022 by lightpanther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kianna Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 It was really spontaneous! Michigan got it pretty well with the Kp5 and clear skies about 01:00 local time, or 05:00 UTC, to the northwest (I live in the L.P too so I got lucky with my phone's camera). I noticed it supposedly got better in the states more westward of Michigan as my app started alerting Kp7, so did anyone else have a better chance with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prepper Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 well, i just see green numbers xd, dont read twitter or at least dont follow crazy ppl haah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) Nobody knows for sure what caused this G3. Asserting a definitive explanation is merely speculating. Lacking understanding, one can instead wax philosophical... "...as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld Edited April 10, 2022 by Drax Spacex "the other" site no longer doesnt know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Solution Share Posted April 10, 2022 Aliens did it Im sorry, I had to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Yes, I admit that NOAA is the easy target. What I'm actually blaming is our woeful lack of spacecraft to provide us with better data. Blame for that can be laid on governments. Unfortunately, it will probably take a hefty CME that does $25 billion in damage to infrastructure to wake them up. Then we'll get our satellites and better data. Because of human nature, this is always how things go. 😉 I'd like to see fully equipped instruments at L3, L4, and L5, and four craft in quadrature circumpolar orbits, and the budget to maintain them and replace them periodically. That seems the least we can do to observe the most important object in the solar system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 36 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Nobody knows for sure what caused this G3. Asserting a definitive explanation is merely speculating. Lacking understanding, one can instead wax philosophical... "...as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld I found a good Explanation. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prepper Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 maybe from past days events? remember that we were specting G storms from the past days activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 Also could be the Equinox effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Aliens did it Im sorry, I had to Ah, well that might fall into a category that Donald didn't mention: "Things we know we know but we aren't going to tell you." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Kianna said: It was really spontaneous! Michigan got it pretty well with the Kp5 and clear skies about 01:00 local time, or 05:00 UTC, to the northwest (I live in the L.P too so I got lucky with my phone's camera). I noticed it supposedly got better in the states more westward of Michigan as my app started alerting Kp7, so did anyone else have a better chance with them? I saw it around 11:30 to midnight Central, so same time as you were looking. 3 hours ago, lightpanther said: I was out last night in Scotland locally. UTC 5.00 or about that. Sky was mostly clear. Kp supposedly 5, but I saw absolutely no aurora, not even dim or diffuse glow (moon was present though and dawn beginning). Did this kp 7 happen after this time? Remember, the P in KP stands for Planetary, it’s a global average. Local K-indices can vary widely from that, leading to localized Aurora events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Ah, well that might fall into a category that Donald didn't mention: "Things we know we know but we aren't going to tell you." Ok but being serious, what caused this? Dang nvm 💀 Oh look there’s ur explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I found a good Explanation. Makes sense to me. I understand conceptually a cumulative build up of energy In the magnetosphere, and then some event triggers a geostorm from the quick release of all that pent-up energy, but is there a precedent for a CME causing a geostorm two days after impact? I would speculate that the trigger was the transient event at about 20220410 0200 UT seen in the solar wind data that abruptly switched from a strong northern Bz to a strong southern Bz where it remained for several hours yielding the G3 storm. Identify the physical cause of that transient, and I think you have the answer. Edited April 10, 2022 by Drax Spacex fix date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Orneno said: I saw it around 11:30 to midnight Central, so same time as you were looking. Remember, the P in KP stands for Planetary, it’s a global average. Local K-indices can vary widely from that, leading to localized Aurora events. Indeed. It was odd not to see anything at all, looking north though. Normally there will be at least an arc, even at 4, and a dim one sometimes at 3. I know our instrumentation is a bit like having a pencil beam flashlight in a warehouse. But the sometimes garish over-forecasts do bug me, as if they are saying "let's make this a 7 just in case." But for aurora hunters (I know it's not the most important thing in the world, but important enough for us who do it) a journey of four or more hours may be involved to get to location. Last G3 prediction was a G1. And this G1 was a G3. Y'know? Maybe we just need better forecasting. Edited April 10, 2022 by lightpanther 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: I understand conceptually a cumulative build up of energy In the magnetosphere, and then some event triggers a geostorm from the quick release of all that pent-up energy, but is there a precedent for a CME causing a geostorm two days after impact? I would speculate that the trigger was the transient event at about 20221010 0200 UT seen in the solar wind data that abruptly switched from a strong northern Bz to a strong southern Bz where it remained for several hours yielding the G3 storm. Identify the physical cause of that transient, and I think you have the answer. Perhaps it wasn’t one two days ago, but three successive as seen in the above tweets, and maybe a CIR as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: I understand conceptually a cumulative build up of energy In the magnetosphere, and then some event triggers a geostorm from the quick release of all that pent-up energy, but is there a precedent for a CME causing a geostorm two days after impact? I would speculate that the trigger was the transient event at about 20220410 0200 UT seen in the solar wind data that abruptly switched from a strong northern Bz to a strong southern Bz where it remained for several hours yielding the G3 storm. Identify the physical cause of that transient, and I think you have the answer. 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: Perhaps it wasn’t one two days ago, but three successive as seen in the above tweets, and maybe a CIR as well. The flywheel effect Dr. Skov has described in past lectures. And the CIR, the catalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 9 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Mucha gente en Internet habla sobre cómo nuestro escudo magnético podría romperse o disminuir debido al G3 provocado por un impacto menor... se vuelve tan agotador. Estoy agotado. Estoy de acuerdo con usted, es solo el pensamiento "si esto pudiera encender un G3, no quiero ver un golpe de CME más fuerte " que cruzó por mi mente. Me voy a tomar un día libre de twitter seguro 😵 💫 😂 what ignited the g3 was the contrail of cme of weak impact, well that says spaceweather.com, so calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said: what ignited the g3 was the contrail of cme of weak impact, well that says spaceweather.com, so calm down Yeah, but spaceweather.com is not always accurate, and tends to jump to conclusions, and this is an especially complicated event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 of course the aurora had to be out over wisconsin the same day i got strep throat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, farm24 said: of course the aurora had to be out over wisconsin the same day i got strep throat Sorry man, rough luck 😅 If it was clear for you, could have been a nice show from up yonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Orneno said: Sorry man, rough luck 😅 If it was clear for you, could have been a nice show from up yonder It was perfectly clear (at least according to my mom lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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